Investment Monthly: Short-term USD and US equity weakness will likely persist

Key takeaways

Despite the 90-day tariff reprieve, investors and corporates continue to face elevated policy uncertainty and rotate into more defensive markets, sectors and currencies. Short-term USD and US equity market weakness will likely linger, but a US recession is not our base case (although the risk is higher). We prefer multi-asset diversification and quality assets and remain overweight on gold.

The Eurozone looks more promising with fiscal support, more EU cooperation and lower-than-perceived earnings exposure to US tariffs. Our more positive view on Germany also supports an upgrade of Europe ex-UK equities to overweight. Japan’s high export exposure to the US and a strong yen lead to a downgrade of Japanese equities to neutral. We focus on domestically oriented companies in Asia.

With only 3% of earnings derived from US exports and more policy stimulus to support AI adoption, consumption and private companies, we expect Chinese equities to stay resilient and await tactical opportunities from mispricing caused by the tariffs to capture structural growth opportunities. We favour the internet, consumption, financial and industrial leaders, as well as quality SOEs paying high dividends.

https://www.hsbc.com.my/wealth/insights/asset-class-views/investment-monthly/short-term-usd-and-us-equity-weakness-will-likely-persist/

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发布日期: Fri, 25 Apr 2025, 07:04 AM

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頂級劵商

georgemiller

发布日期: Fri, 25 Apr 2025, 07:04 AM

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