LITTLETON, Colorado, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Wind generation in Texas's power system is forecast to more than double from current levels from the end of February, setting the stage for a jump in renewable energy generation to record highs within the United States' largest power-consuming state.

Wind farms are the largest power source in Texas behind natural gas, and along with solar farms accounted for a record average share of 29.8% of total electricity production in 2024, according to the latest data from energy think tank Ember.

But the impending rise in wind production could help the cumulative average share of solar and wind power to top the 30% threshold for the first time in 2025.

If Texas power firms can secure over 30% of system power needs from renewable assets, that could provide scope for reduced fossil fuel use elsewhere in the generation mix, and help cap overall emissions from the U.S.' largest power system.

SPRING PEAK

Wind generation levels tend to peak annually in Texas from March through May, as the tail-end of winter leads to higher sustained wind speeds at turbine level.

Texas is by far the largest wind power producer in the United States, and generated around 115,000 gigawatt hours (GWh) of wind-powered electricity in January to November of 2024, according to Ember.

That total was over twice as much as the next largest wind-producing state - Iowa - and accounted for just under 28% of all U.S. wind electricity output in January to November of 2024.

Around a third of Texas' full-year wind generation total is produced during the months of March, April and May, according to LSEG.

That period is also when generation from natural gas is at its lowest due to reduced demand for heating and cooling during the spring shoulder season.

That same generation pattern looks set to unfold again over this spring, as the current cold snap gives way to warmer temperatures from March onwards and lower demand for heating.

At the same time, higher wind speeds look set to boost wind power generation.

LSEG's forecast models call for wind power output to climb from the current daily average of around 7,500 megawatt hours (MWh) to around 17,000 MWh per day from later this month.

If those forecasts prove correct, Texas' wind farms may be able to grab a new record share of Texas power output during the coming months, and help maintain energy transition momentum within the national power mix.

CLEAN POWER PROGRESS

Electricity production from clean energy sources in Texas has increased by nearly 60% since 2019, compared to just a 2% rise in fossil fuel-fired generation during that same period, Ember data shows.

Texas' total electricity production has climbed by 17% since 2019, resulting in a cleaner overall power mix that has boosted total generation by an average of 5% a year since 2021.

As a result of the cleaner generation mix, total power sector emissions in Texas have dropped by 3% since 2019, and have been largely flat for the past three years.

However, total U.S. power emissions from fossil fuel use have declined by 8% since 2019, as other states were able to make steeper cuts to fossil fuel use during that period.

That has resulted in Texas's share of national power emissions from fossil fuel use rising to record highs in recent years, despite steady additions to clean power output.

But if Texas' wind farms boost output as forecast this spring, Texas' power suppliers may be able to make steeper cuts to fossil fuel use and still deliver higher overall power supplies to customers.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.

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https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/texas-power-system-set-new-clean-milestone-winds-pick-up-maguire-2025-02-20/