LITTLETON, Colorado, March 3 (Reuters) - Australians are set for a general election within the next two months that will likely trigger substantial changes to national energy policies and priorities regardless of who wins.

The incumbent Labor party is facing backlash against its renewables-heavy and anti-nuclear policies, and has been blamed for high and volatile energy costs that have prevailed since the party won power in 2022.

Labor is largely tied in polls with its main rival the centre-right Coalition party, which has a starkly different energy agenda that centres on reversing a current ban on nuclear power and extending the life of ageing coal plants.

While voters and investors await more specifics on the planned policies of both parties, below are key power and energy sector trends that may be impacted by whomever forms the new government.

CLEAN MOMENTUM

The Labor party has been a strong supporter of clean power growth, and has published plans to make Australia net zero by 2050 through major investments in expanding renewables output.

Between 2021 - the last year the previous Liberal government was in power - and 2024, clean electricity output in Australia jumped by 30%, while fossil fuel generation dropped by 5%, according to data from energy think tank Ember.

A 66% surge in utility-scale solar output alongside a 20% rise in wind output were the main drivers of the clean power growth since 2021, and further investments in clean generation and battery storage are likely should Labor retain power.

Expansions to Australia's clean power production were also made during previous administrations, and total clean electricity supplies have grown by an average of 13% a year since 2015.

Steady cuts to coal-fired power have also been made under Labor's tenure, with coal's share of Australia's generation mix dropping to below 50% for the first time in late 2024.

FOSSIL CUTS SLOW TOTAL GROWTH

While clean generation has steadily climbed over the past decade, Australia's electricity production from fossil fuels has contracted by around 2% a year since 2015, Ember data shows.

As fossil fuels account for two-thirds of overall generation in Australia, these cuts to fossil output have constrained the growth pace of total electricity production to an average of just 1% a year since 2020.

This anaemic expansion rate of total electricity supplies likely supported the rise in electricity prices across Australia in recent years, and somewhat offset the impact of higher clean power output.

Due to sustained increases in annual electricity consumption, electricity prices are likely to remain high and volatile for the foreseeable future, regardless of who wins the upcoming election.

A Coalition party win could result in support for fossil fuel-fired power plants to raise production slightly, but there is limited scope for a sustained production increase given the country's already-strained and ageing coal power fleet.

Over the longer run, a Coalition win could also trigger more serious discussions over developing a nuclear power fleet, but any start to nuclear electricity supplies would likely not be seen until beyond 2030.

ENDURING EXPORT IMPACT

While the upcoming election may alter domestic power generation trends depending on which party wins, Australia's stature on the global fossil fuel export stage will likely remain unchanged.

Australia's mammoth reserves of both coal and natural gas far exceed the amount the country consumes for power generation, and has resulted in Australia becoming a top five exporter of both commodities.

In 2023, Australia exported nearly six times more coal than it consumed, and nearly three times more natural gas in the form of liquefied natural gas, data from the Energy Institute shows.

The export volumes shipped out by Australia captured a roughly 27% share of global coal exports and a 20% share of global LNG exports in 2024, according to Kpler.

These hefty export tonnages have long been a source of criticism for Australia, as when burned for power the exported fuels generate vast plumes of emissions in importer nations.

Indeed, the emissions tolls attached to Australian fossil fuel exports are so large that the country is the third largest carbon dioxide emitter per capita after Qatar and Saudi Arabia, according to the Global Carbon Budget.

Australian governments have so far shrugged off accusations that the country's fossil fuel exports are undermining efforts to slow climate change.

And combined exports of all types of coal plus LNG are projected to rise again in 2025 to five-year highs, according to the government's latest report on resource exports.

But the dichotomy between Australia's increasingly clean domestic power system and the heft of its fossil fuel exports may still expose it to fresh criticism of causing lasting global environmental damage for short-term gain.

Such accusations could potentially sway the new leadership to consider paring back fossil fuel extraction and sales in the interest of the global environment.

A more likely outcome is the election winners - regardless of party - follow the lead of the new United States government and disregard global climate pacts in favour of supporting the local economy and the voters contained therein.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.

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https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/australias-key-clean-dirty-power-trends-track-pre-election-maguire-2025-03-03/