LITTLETON, Colorado, May 13 (Reuters) - The main power system for the state of Texas is bracing for a surge in electricity demand as a heat wave is forecast to drive up temperatures across the middle of the state to above 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.7 degrees Celsius) this week.

Widespread use of air conditioners alongside growing demand from data centres and industry is expected to drive peak electricity use to a record 84,000 megawatts (MW) this week, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) reported.

Sign up here.

That demand load total is 9% more than the previous demand peak for the month of May, according to industry analysts, and will likely place one of the country's largest power systems under intense strain over the coming days.

Below are some of the key tools that power analysts can use to track how the ERCOT system is coping.

REAL-TIME MONITORING

Analysts with access to power trading tools such as LSEG Workspace can monitor forecasts for temperatures, peak power loads and power supplies from key generation sources.

The latest weather models tracked by LSEG forecast that temperatures across the ERCOT system will average around 82 degrees Fahrenheit (28 degrees Celsius) through May 16, which is around 7 degrees or 9% more than the long-term average.

In response, power demand models forecast an increase in system load during the May 12 through 16 period.

The average of the weather-based power load models deployed by LSEG forecast that power demand will be 14% more than the long-term average from May 12 through May 16, and will be around 30% more than the registered power load so far this week.

Power analysts can also track how the ERCOT power generation mix evolves over the coming days in response to the surge in electricity demand.

Natural gas plants and solar farms look set to be the two largest power sources within the ERCOT system over the coming days, with wind farms, coal plants and nuclear reactors also playing key supply roles.

Analysts can also track power price movements this week to gauge how the stress placed on the ERCOT system is impacting consumers.

LSEG Workspace and other power system tools carry real-time and day-ahead power prices for across key geographies throughout the ERCOT system, allowing traders to spot potential localized flashpoints within the broader network.

WIDER LENS

Tools are also available to see how the ERCOT power system has evolved over time, which allows analysts to see how much better equipped system managers are today compared to previous periods of grid strain.

Energy data portal Cleanview allows analysts to track capacity increases of battery storage systems and other power sources, which allows analysts to measure how power supplies have evolved over time.

Since 2023, Texas has added around 9,000 megawatts (MW) of solar generation capacity and nearly 4,400 MW of battery storage capacity, Cleanview's portal shows.

Those capacity additions are the highest among all states during that time frame, and indicate that ERCOT system managers have been aggressive in adding generation and storage capacity to the ERCOT network.

Analysts can also track the ERCOT power mix by generation share over selected periods, which can give insight into how ERCOT managers tweak system resources to meet demand needs.

Electricity monitoring portal gridstatus.io allows analysts to see how battery storage is playing an increasingly important role in providing additional power supplies during peak demand periods.

Between 8 p.m. and 9 p.m. on May 11, for instance, batteries supplied nearly 9% of total ERCOT power, which was greater than the power supplied by the system's wind farms and nuclear reactors over that same period.

Batteries will continue to play a critical system-balancing role this week, especially once solar generation drops in the evening just as households across the state come home from work and school and crank their cooling systems.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/tracking-texas-power-system-through-looming-heat-wave-stress-maguire-2025-05-13/