• Tariff of 50% on US copper imports higher than expected
• Levy expected to be in place end-July, start of August
• Traders will try to cash in on US premium ahead of deadline

July 9 (Reuters) - Copper shipments into the United States are expected to accelerate in the coming weeks in a final scramble to get metal across the border before U.S. President Donald Trump's higher-than-expected 50% tariff on imported copper goes into effect.

Trump announced the tariff on copper on Tuesday, sending U.S. Comex copper futures up more than 12% to a record high. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the levy would likely be in place by the end of July or August 1.

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The deadline slaps an expiry date on a months-old playbook whereby traders have pulled metal out of warehouses around the world and shipped it to the U.S. to cash in on a premium that was hovering around $2,600 per metric ton early on Wednesday.

With roughly three weeks left, analysts and traders said only cargoes already on the water or coming from Latin America were likely to make it in time.

"Shipments already on route to the U.S. will likely try to get there still, meaning the ex-U.S. markets shouldn't face excess cargoes immediately. But it will be more challenging to ship any extra cargoes in a three-week window," analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note.

Chilean producers with Chinese contracts are likely to step up a practice of redirecting Comex-eligible stock to the U.S. and sending other brands to China instead, according to a Chinese copper trader, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The final rush could mean continued tightness outside the U.S. during a sprint to the tariff deadline, said analysts and traders, after which the gravitational pull of the U.S. will ease, freeing up supplies elsewhere.

The U.S. has imported nearly a year's worth of copper in the past six months, according to analysts at J.P. Morgan, who say imports will fall for months after the tariffs go into effect as users work through stockpiles.

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange both dipped just over 1% in the hours after Trump's announcement.

Citi forecasts copper prices outside the U.S. will pull back to $8,800 per ton over the next three months.

Benchmark copper on the LME was trading at $9,603 a metric ton by 0941 GMT.

However, any decline is likely to be constrained by tightness across the global copper market, where demand continues to outstrip supply.

"Copper prices on the SHFE are currently under pressure, but they will likely rebound after U.S. copper tariffs are finalised as fundamentals remain tight in the short-term," according to Zhao Yongcheng, an analyst at benchmark mineral intelligence.

https://www.reuters.com/business/goldman-sachs-raises-baseline-tariff-forecast-us-copper-imports-50-2025-07-09/