JAKARTA, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Indonesia posted a smaller-than-expected trade surplus in October after exports unexpectedly fell, official data showed on Monday, amid curtailed demand from China and weak shipments of mining products.

The surplus stood at $2.4 billion, smaller than the $3.72 billion forecast by economists polled by Reuters and September's $4.34 billion surplus. It was the smallest monthly surplus since April, according to LSEG data.

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Exports dropped 2.31% from a year earlier to $24.24 billion. Analysts had predicted 3.38% growth. The decline was due to lower shipments of coal and copper products, a Statistics Indonesia official told reporters.

The contraction stems from weaker demand from China, amid a softening economy and ongoing normalisation of trade with the United States following a tit-for-tat escalation in tariffs earlier this year, said Permata Bank economist Faisal Rachman.

Indonesian exporters had front-loaded their shipments to the U.S. ahead of the onset of tariffs in August.

Meanwhile, the country's biggest copper producer, Freeport Indonesia, experienced a fatal mud-flow disaster at its Grasberg complex in September, which forced the company to temporarily halt production.

It has since resumed operation at its two smaller mines in Grasberg, but it lowered its production targets for 2025 and 2026 due to ongoing recovery work at the complex.

Southeast Asia's biggest economy has enjoyed a relatively large trade surplus almost every month in 2025, supported by higher shipments of palm oil, gold and jewellery - and even as prices of its top commodities, coal and nickel, remain weak.

Imports contracted by 1.15% to $21.84 billion in October amid lower demand for consumer goods and raw materials, although that was less than the forecast fall of 2.2% in the Reuters poll.

Separately, Indonesia's annual inflation rate slowed to 2.72% in November, slightly less than analysts' median forecast of 2.77% and comfortably within the central bank's 1.5% to 3.5% target range, data showed on Monday.

The inflation rate stood at 2.86% in October.

Core inflation, which excludes government-controlled prices and volatile food items, was steady at 2.36% in November.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesias-october-trade-surplus-smaller-than-expected-2025-12-01/