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LAUNCESTON, Australia, Jan 29 (Reuters) - The massive surge in gold and silver in recent months has been grabbing headlines, but behind the precious metal hype the less glamorous industrial metals have also been putting in strong performances.

Copper, aluminium and nickel have posted strong gains, reaching either record or multi-year highs even though the underlying fundamentals ‌appear to lack sufficient justification for the rallies.

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There are some solid reasons why base metals should be showing some strength, most of them related to either Chinese import demand or easing exports.

But it's also likely that metals are benefiting from the same speculative dynamics driving gold and silver, namely a desire to hold real assets amid investor uncertainty over the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump.

The weakening U.S. dollar also explains some of the higher prices for metals, but it's worth noting that prices in other major world currencies have ‌also been surging.

Spot gold hit a fresh record high of $5,400.91 an ounce on Wednesday, and has jumped 39% since its most recent low of $3,886.02 on October 28.

The surge in silver has been more impressive, with a gain of 158% from the October 28 low of $45.51 an ounce to the high of $117.41 on Wednesday, just shy of the all-time peak of $117.69 reached on January 26.

Silver has also benefited from concern that China's new licensing rules for exports may lead ‍to lower shipments, with just 44 companies allowed to export the metal this year and next.

Restrictions on silver exports have yet to emerge, with China shipping about 5,100 metric tons of the metal last year, the most since 2008.

But given silver's use in solar panels there is concern that China will prioritise domestic consumption, resulting in lower quantities available for export.

ALUMINIUM SUPPLY

China is also having ⁠an impact on global aluminium markets by shipping less of the industrial metal.

Exports of unwrought aluminium and products dropped 8% in 2025 from the prior year to ‍6.13 million tons, according to customs data.

The loss of some supply from the world's biggest producer resulted in aluminium prices rallying, with London contracts on a rising trend since April.

From the most ‌recent low ‌of $2,805 a ton on November 17, aluminium has jumped 16.1% to end at $3,257 on Wednesday, the highest close since April 2022.

Copper's gains have been more impressive, with London futures gaining 24% from the recent low of $10,580 a ton on November 5 to the close of $13,086.50 on Wednesday, which is down slightly from the record high of $13,407 hit on January 14.

China has been importing more copper, especially in the second half of 2025, with December arrivals of 437,000 tons being up 2.3% from the prior month.

However, ⁠much of copper's rally last year was ⁠built around the flow of metal into the United States amid fears that Trump would impose import tariffs, with those concerns easing after duties were imposed only on some copper products.

Nickel is another industrial metal that has turned in some impressive gains in recent months, rising 27.5% from a low of $14,330 a ton on November 21 to end at $18,270 on Wednesday, close to the 21-month high of $19,160 from January ‍26.

The question for markets is whether the gains in copper, aluminium and nickel can be justified by supply and demand fundamentals and the outlook for the rest of 2026, or whether they are being driven by speculation.

Most analysts see copper and aluminium as fairly well-balanced markets from a supply and demand view in 2026, while nickel is likely to remain in oversupply.

This means the recent rally is more likely to be industrial metals hanging on the coattails of the gains in precious ‍metals.

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The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/trump-china-metals-rally-extends-beyond-gold-silver-2026-01-29/