NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Oct 30 (Reuters) - It has been a few years since the United States has had a truly good winter wheat harvest, though the 2024 crop could be on its way despite lingering drought in top states.

In its first assessment of the growing season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture rated 47% of the domestic wheat crop as good or excellent (GE) as of Sunday, the date’s best since 2019 and above the recent five-year average of 44%.

That is substantially better than last year’s initial rating of 28% GE, which was by far the worst start for winter wheat since conditions began in 1986. Come April, the 2023 crop still carried some of the worst-ever ratings, seemingly guaranteeing a terrible harvest was looming.

But national winter wheat yield ended up only about 2% below the long-term trend in 2023. Some of the worst harvests, as in 2014 or 2015, featured yields around 12% below trend.

Last year offered a very split story as top winter wheat grower Kansas notched yields 26% below trend, its worst result in nine years. However, yields in 14 other states matched or broke their previous highs, most prominently in soft red wheat areas from Illinois to Ohio, and south into Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee.

Nationally, yields are more correlated with spring conditions rather than fall ones, but a similar storyline exists this year as hard red winter wheat giant Kansas continues to grapple with dryness. Winter wheat there is only 32% GE, down from the week’s five-year average of 43% but above the year-ago 24%.

Drought is still hanging around in Oklahoma and Texas, but nowhere near the degree of last year. Winter wheat is 42% and 41% GE, respectively, equal to the Oklahoma average and 13 points above the Texas one.

This year’s El Nino pattern typically brings ample growing season moisture to the Southern Plains, including Kansas, but many parts of the state still await relief.

Winter wheat at 47% GE is among the lower ratings for the date historically, but it is not necessarily in poor company. The epic 2016 harvest was 48% GE at the end of the prior October and yield eventually surged 13% above trend. Also note 2015-2016 was a strong El Nino season.

The 2021 and 2022 crops are also within range, having been rated 42% and 45% GE in this same week, respectively. The 2021 yield was about 1% below trend but 2022 yield fell 8%.

Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-winter-wheat-health-starts-2024-season-four-year-high-2023-10-31/