2024-05-28 11:04

Economists expect a slight drop in Australia’s inflation, from 3.5% to 3.4%. Investors are only pricing in a 30% chance that the RBA will cut rates in December. Markets are awaiting Friday’s US core PCE price index. The AUD/USD price analysis indicates a resurgence in bullish momentum ahead of inflation data from Australia and the US. At the same time, the dollar was weaker as its recent rally ran out of steam. Investors are now awaiting fresh clues on the future path of Fed policy. Australia will release its CPI report on Wednesday, and economists expect a slight drop from 3.5% to 3.4%. This figure will influence the outlook for RBA rate cuts. Currently, markets expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to be among the last major central banks to cut interest rates. Notably, policymakers have remained cautious due to the stubborn services inflation in the country. Consequently, investors are only pricing in a 30% chance that the central bank will cut rates in December. Moreover, they are only fully pricing in the first rate cut in May next year. This will keep the Aussie strong, as the Fed might start cutting rates before the RBA. Meanwhile, data on Tuesday revealed a small increase in Australia’s retail sales of 0.1% in April after a 0.4% drop the previous month. However, economists had expected a bigger growth of 0.2%. This indicates weak consumer spending due to high borrowing costs. Elsewhere, the dollar paused its rally from last week when US data showed a resilient economy and lowered expectations for Fed rate cuts. Investors have digested the mixed economic signals and now await Friday’s core PCE price index. AUD/USD key events today US CB consumer confidence AUD/USD technical price analysis: Price rises to retest broken trendline On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken above the 30-SMA after finding support at the 0.6600 level. Previously, there had been a significant shift in sentiment when the price broke below its bullish trendline. However, it paused at the 0.6600 level and might rise to retest the trendline as resistance. Moreover, there is strong resistance at the 0.6700 level. Therefore, if this is only a retest of the recently broken trendline, the downtrend will resume with a break below 0.6600. However, if bulls have retaken control, the price will break above 0.6700 to make new highs. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/05/28/aud-usd-price-analysis-aussie-gains-ahead-of-inflation-data/

2024-05-28 08:56

ECB’s Francois Villeroy confirmed that the central bank will implement the first rate cut next week. Philip Lane said ECB rate cuts would depend on underlying inflation and demand. Data on Monday revealed that German business morale stagnated in May. The EUR/USD outlook leans bullish as the euro gains despite dovish ECB comments. Markets expect the central bank to implement its first rate cut next week. However, a weaker dollar has kept the euro from falling. The greenback weakened as investors looked forward to more US inflation data. European Central Bank policymakers have remained confident about the start of the central bank’s rate-cut cycle. ECB’s Francois Villeroy confirmed that the central bank will implement the first rate cut next week. Meanwhile, Philip Lane said rate cuts would depend on underlying inflation and demand. Therefore, there is no doubt about rate cuts. The only uncertainty is on the pace of cuts and what will happen after the June meeting. Policymakers cannot ignore the fact that the Fed’s monetary policy will significantly impact the actions of other central banks. Therefore, although most major central banks are ready to start cutting rates before the Fed, they will be cautious after a few cuts. Elsewhere, data on Monday revealed that German business morale stagnated in May and missed forecasts. Consequently, the economy might recover at a slower pace than expected. Meanwhile, in the US, investors are awaiting the core PCE price index report, which will give further insight into the Fed’s policy. Economists expect the numbers to hold steady on a monthly basis. Any surprises could change the outlook for rate cuts. At the moment, markets are fully expecting the first cut in December. Meanwhile, there is a 60% chance that the Fed will cut rates in September. EUR/USD key events today US CB consumer confidence EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls return with eyes on 1.0900 On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has gone from bearish to bullish after failing to maintain a move below the 30-SMA. Initially, bears took control when the price broke out of its bullish channel. However, they failed to go below the 1.0800 key level, allowing bulls to retake control. At the moment, the price sits above the 30-SMA, and the RSI is above 50, which is bullish territory. Therefore, the price will likely climb to retest the 1.0900 resistance level. However, to confirm a continuation of the previous uptrend, bulls must break above 1.0900. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/05/28/eur-usd-outlook-euro-strengthens-despite-dovish-ecb/

2024-05-27 10:06

UK sales dropped by 2.3% in May, beating economists expectations of a 0.4% drop. The likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut in June is 10%. Investors eagerly await the US core PCE index report. The GBP/USD outlook shows renewed bullish momentum as the pound trades near a two-month high due to a decline in BoE rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, investors are gearing up for more inflation data from the US. Data from the UK on Friday showed a mixed picture of the economy, with sales declining and consumer confidence remaining high. Sales in the UK dropped by 2.3% in May, beating economists expectations of a 0.4% drop. This pointed to weaker demand in the economy that would pave the way for rate cuts in the UK. However, since the inflation report on Wednesday, investors have significantly scaled back expectations for a rate cut. Notably, although inflation fell to 2.3% from 3.2%, economists had expected a more significant drop to 2.1%. As a result, by Friday, the likelihood of a Bank of England rate cut in June was at 10%, down from 50% before the report. Some experts believe markets overreacted to the inflation miss. Meanwhile, in the US, investors expect the core PCE index report, which will show the state of underlying inflation. Policymakers have remained cautious since the last inflation report, awaiting more evidence that prices are cooling. If the PCE report reveals easing inflation, It might give policymakers more confidence, allowing them to shift to a more dovish stance. On the other hand, a higher-than-expected figure will raise doubts about rate cuts and strengthen the dollar. GBP/USD key events today Investors do not expect high-impact events today. Therefore, the price will likely consolidate. GBP/USD technical outlook: Price retests solid resistance at 1.2750 On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has returned to trade near its recent highs after puncturing the 30-SMA support line. However, the bullish move faces solid resistance from the 1.618 Fib and 1.2750 levels. Moreover, although the bias is bullish, some cracks show a possible looming reversal. First, bears have become strong enough to break below the 30-SMA, a sign that bulls are losing control. This came after the price made a bearish engulfing candle. Furthermore, the RSI still shows a bearish divergence, indicating weaker bullish momentum. Therefore, if the resistance holds firm, the trend might reverse to retest the 1.2601 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/05/27/gbp-usd-outlook-declining-rate-cut-bets-boost-pound/

2024-05-27 09:27

The yen might record its first month of gains in 2024 due to suspected intervention. The core PCE price index will play a significant role in shaping the Fed’s policy outlook. Japan will release the Tokyo CPI report. The USD/JPY forecast remains bullish as investors eagerly await key inflation data from the US and Japan. However, despite the recent decline, the yen might record its first month of gains in 2024 due to suspected intervention by the Bank of Japan. The new week comes with inflation figures from the US showing underlying price increases. The core PCE price index will play a significant role in shaping the outlook for interest rate cuts in the US. The Fed prefers this measure of inflation as it eliminates all volatile measures and focuses on those that can cause persistence. Therefore, if this figure shows a cooling economy, there will be an increase in rate-cut expectations. On the other hand, hotter-than-expected numbers would likely prolong high interest rates in the US. Meanwhile, Japan will release the Tokyo CPI report, a leading indicator of national inflation trends. The Bank of Japan hopes for higher inflation in the country, allowing it to hike interest rates. However, recent figures have shown a decline, challenging this outlook. The yen found some strength on Friday after Japan’s top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, issued another warning against speculative yen declines. He said Japan was ready to act anytime, raising fears of a possible intervention. Already, there have been two suspected interventions that have strengthened the yen. However, since then, it has given up some of its gains. USD/JPY key events today There are no major reports from the US and Japan today, and trading might be thin due to the holiday in the US. USD/JPY technical forecast: Bullish momentum remains weak above 156.50 On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has pulled back to trade near solid support, comprising the 30-SMA and the 156.50 key level. However, the bias is bullish since it has made a higher high. The price recently broke above 156.60 but has since traded in a tight range, showing weaker bullish momentum. If bulls remain weak, a break below the 30-SMA might shift sentiment. Nevertheless, the bullish bias will remain with the price above the support trendline. If bulls regain strength, the price will retest the 158.01 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/05/27/usd-jpy-forecast-all-eyes-on-inflation-reports-from-us-japan/

2024-05-26 08:03

The Canadian dollar weakened as Canada’s inflation eased in May. Some Fed policymakers called for rate hikes if inflation continued to beat forecasts. Next week, the US and Canada will release their GDP reports. The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows bullish sentiment as the policy outlook divergence between the Fed and the Canadian dollar widens. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair had a bullish week as the dollar strengthened on upbeat data and hawkish Fed minutes. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar weakened as Canada’s inflation eased in May. The FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday showed that policymakers were ready to hold restrictive policy for long to tame stubborn inflation. Additionally, some policymakers called for rate hikes if inflation continued to beat forecasts. Consequently, investors scaled back expectations for a rate cut in September. Furthermore, the US released PMI data showing better-than-expected business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. Meanwhile, data from Canada showed cooling inflation, raising bets for a June rate cut by the Bank of Canada. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, the US and Canada will release their Gross Domestic Product reports, which will show the state of their economies. These reports will significantly define the gap in policy outlooks between the US and Canada. A bigger-than-expected figure in the US would indicate a robust economy, likely leading to a decline in Fed rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, the GDP report is more likely to reveal a slowdown in Canada, which would pressure the BoC to cut rates and increase the divergence in policy outlooks. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bears retest bullish trendline On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is in a bullish trend that has paused after reaching the 1.3800 key resistance level. After hitting this level, the price entered a period of consolidation, chopping through the 22-SMA. Moreover, the price has traded with the nearest support at 1.3600 and the nearest resistance at 1.3800. However, on a larger scale, the price has maintained its position above a bullish trendline. Moreover, it has consistently made higher highs and lows. Currently, the price is trading near the trendline, which has acted as support several times. Therefore, the price might bounce off this trendline to retest the 1.3800 resistance. A break above this level would make a higher high to continue the uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/05/26/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-fed-boc-policy-gap-widening/

2024-05-25 19:19

Some policymakers suggested hiking interest rates to tame stubborn inflation. Data revealed improved business activity in the US manufacturing and services sectors. Investors will focus on the US GDP data next week. The AUD/USD weekly forecast points south as the US dollar recovers amid a decline in Fed rate cut expectations. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The Aussie had a bearish week as the dollar recovered amid a decline in Fed rate cut expectations. The major catalysts in the week were the FOMC meeting minutes and the US PMI figures. When the Fed meeting minutes came out, investors were surprised that some policymakers had suggested hiking interest rates to tame stubborn inflation. As a result, expectations for a cut in September dropped. Then came the US PMI reports, which revealed improved business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. This gave the dollar another boost, weighing on the Australian dollar. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, investors will focus on only one major report from the US showing the Gross Domestic Product. The last report missed forecasts and raised fears that high interest rates were hurting the economy. Another downbeat report would raise expectations that the Fed will cut rates in September. However, if the economy expands at a faster-than-expected rate, there will be a decline in rate cut expectations. Notably, recent data, including business activity, shows the economy is doing well. Therefore, if the GDP report continues this trend, there will be a lower chance that the Fed will cut rates in September. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Temporary pullback to the 0.5 Fib retracement level On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is in a bullish trend above the 22-SMA, with the RSI supporting bullish momentum above 50. However, the price has pulled back after touching the 0.6700 key psychological level. This is also near the 0.618 Fib retracement level. However, given the bullish bias, the pullback is likely temporary. Moreover, the price has met strong support at the 0.5 Fib retracement level and the 22-SMA. Price action has shown that the price might reverse since it has made a bullish candle. In the coming week, there is a high chance the price will bounce off the support zone to retest the 0.6851. A break above this level would make a higher high, confirming a continuation of the bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/05/25/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-dollar-gains-as-rate-cut-hopes-dim/