2025-03-28 09:16
The USD/JPY price analysis indicates increasing price pressures in Japan’s capital. Core inflation in Tokyo rose by 2.4%. The US economy grew by 2.4% in the last quarter, bigger than the forecast of 2.3%. The USD/JPY price analysis indicates increasing price pressures in Japan’s capital that might convince the BoJ to keep hiking rates. As a result, the yen strengthened against the dollar on Friday. However, the greenback had also rebounded in the previous session after upbeat GDP data. On Friday, data from Japan revealed that core inflation in Tokyo rose by 2.4%. Meanwhile, economists had expected a 2.2% rise. The hotter-than-expected price pressures will encourage BoJ policymakers to keep hiking interest rates. Recently, Governor Ueda has noted that the central bank was ready to keep hiking as long as inflation stays above the 2% target. However, economists in a Reuters poll indicated that the next rate hike might come in July. At the moment, uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariffs and their impact on the economy might keep policymakers cautious. On the other hand, the dollar recovered on Thursday after positive GDP data. The US economy grew by 2.4% in the last quarter, bigger than the forecast of 2.3%. At the same time, unemployment claims eased slightly from 225,000 to 224,000 last week. The upbeat data eased recession concerns, boosting the dollar. However, uncertainty regarding tariffs in April has kept market participants cautious. Moreover, traders eagerly await the core PCE price index report for more clues on Fed policy. USD/JPY key events today Core PCE Price Index m/m USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bears emerge as 151.01 resistance holds firm On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is falling towards the 30-SMA support after failing to break above the 151.01 resistance level. However, the bias is bullish since the price trades above the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI trades slightly above 50, suggesting strong bullish momentum. Furthermore, the price trades within a bullish channel with clear support and resistance levels. However, bulls have shown some weakness at the 151.01 level. The price made a double top plus an RSI divergence that could lead to a deep pullback. This means the price might break below the SMA to retest the channel support. However, if bulls remain in control, the price will bounce off the channel support to reach new highs. Sentiment will only shift if USD/JPY breaks below the channel support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/28/usd-jpy-price-analysis-boj-to-stay-hawkish-as-tokyo-cpi-soars/
2025-03-28 08:38
The AUD/USD outlook shows easing fears of a US recession. The US economy grew by 2.4% last quarter, above estimates of a 2.3% expansion. Economists believe the RBA will keep interest rates unchanged next week. The AUD/USD outlook shows easing fears of a US recession after an upbeat US GDP report, which has revived the dollar. However, trading remains thin amid uncertainty regarding Trump’s April tariffs. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll revealed that economists expect the RBA to hold on Tuesday and signal two more cuts this year. Data on Thursday revealed that the US economy grew by 2.4% last quarter, above estimates of a 2.3% expansion. This was the second upbeat report this week after the business activity data and eased fears of a rapid economic slowdown. However, the outlook for the future remains uncertain. If Trump continues imposing tariffs, the economy will eventually suffer. Market participants expect the US president to announce more tariffs come April 2. These might escalate and ignite new trade wars that would dim the outlook for growth. At the same time, inflation expectations would soar, keeping the Fed on a cautious path. On the other hand, economists in a Reuters poll believe the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep interest rates unchanged next week. Moreover, they believe the central bank will implement its next cut in May. Although inflation is in the 2-3% target band, underlying inflation remains high at 3.2% AUD/USD key events today Core PCE Price Index m/m AUD/USD technical outlook: Choppiness after downtrend On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has paused its decline and entered a period of correction between the 0.6200 support and the 0.6390 resistance. Bulls tried to take charge by pushing the price above the 30-SMA. However, they have failed to start making higher highs and lows, a sign that bears are still fighting to resume the previous downtrend. Within the correction, the price trades below the SMA, with the RSI under 50, suggesting a bearish bias. If this continues, the price will soon drop to the 0.6200 support level. A break below this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend. On the other hand, if bulls return at any point, they will push the price back above the SMA to retest the 0.6390 resistance level. A break above this level would make a higher high, indicating a new bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/28/aud-usd-outlook-upbeat-us-gdp-calms-recession-concerns/
2025-03-27 08:25
The USD/CAD outlook shows traders dumping the loonie on tariff fears. An automobile tariff and a 25% levy on all imports will cloud the outlook for growth in Canada. BoC policymakers are becoming more cautious. The USD/CAD outlook shows traders dumping the loonie as tariffs on Canada loom large. Trump confirmed an automobile tariff that will impact imports from Canada. At the same time, market participants worry about the impact of a 25% tariff on Canadian imports. Nevertheless, there is still optimism after the US president said he might exempt some countries from tariffs. Since Trump took office, he has controlled the outlook for Canada’s economy, by threatening, imposing, and postponing tariffs on the country. This has caused a lot of fluctuations in the Canadian dollar. Currently, the country is battling with tariffs on steel and aluminum in the US. Moreover, an automobile tariff and a 25% levy on all imports might cloud the outlook for growth in Canada. The loonie gained in the previous session amid optimism of a softer tariff stance. This followed remarks by Trump that he would give some countries tariff breaks. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada policy meeting minutes revealed that policymakers were becoming more cautious. They are less convinced that inflation is on a downtrend. At the same time, uncertainty over tariffs might put the central bank in a wait-and-see position. USD/CAD key events today US final GDP q/q US unemployment claims USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears meet rejection below 1.4275 On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is rebounding after a false breakout below the 1.4275 support level. However, the bias is still bearish because the price trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI under 50. Moreover, the price has reached a lower low, showing bears might be ready to test lower prices. After trading in a big range area, volatility has dropped and the price is now oscillating between the 1.4275 support and the 1.4400 resistance. Therefore, if bulls take back control, the price will break above the 30-SMA to retest the 1.4400 resistance. This would also mean a continuation of the sideways move. On the other hand, if the SMA holds firm, the price will bounce lower and make a better break of the 1.4275 support level. This would allow USD/CAD to continue a downtrend with lower lows and highs. Moreover, bears would target the 1.4175 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/27/usd-cad-outlook-loonie-struggles-as-traders-brace-for-tariffs/
2025-03-27 07:31
The GBP/USD forecast shows a weaker dollar amid growing tariff uncertainty. Data revealed a smaller-than-expected 2.8% increase in UK inflation. Rachel Reeves outlined plans to cut spending due to the weak economy. The GBP/USD forecast shows growing tariff uncertainty that is weighing on the dollar, allowing the pound to recover. Sterling was down in the previous session after downbeat inflation data and a forecast for weaker growth in the UK budget update. The dollar retreated from its highs as traders grew more anxious ahead of new Trump tariffs on April 2. Already, the US president has confirmed tariffs on automobiles that will affect major economies like the Eurozone. Moreover, market participants expect levies on pharmaceuticals and chips. Trump might also impose reciprocal tariffs and a 25% levy on goods from Canada and Mexico. All these tariffs might ignite trade wars that would hurt the US and the global economy. Meanwhile, the pound had a difficult day on Wednesday after data revealed a 2.8% increase in UK inflation. This figure came below estimates of a 3.0% increase. As a result, expectations for Bank of England rate cuts increased. Nevertheless, policymakers might remain cautious due to uncertainty over US trade policies. Additionally, the pound fell after a downbeat UK budget update. Rachel Reeves outlined plans to cut spending due to the weak economy. Forecasts revealed a sharp downgrade in economic growth and higher inflation. GBP/USD key events today US final GDP q/q US unemployment claims GBP/USD technical forecast: Bears struggle below 30-SMA On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has rebounded to retest the 30-SMA resistance. At the same time, the RSI has risen to the pivotal 50 level which has acted as support and resistance before. The bearish bias remains intact since the price trades below the SMA and the RSI is slightly under 50. However, bulls are challenging this bias. Sentiment recently shifted when the price broke below the 30-SMA. Bulls had shown weakness near the 1.3000 key psychological level, with the RSI making a bearish divergence. However, bears have not found their feet below the SMA. The price is still clinging to the SMA line, indicating a struggle between bears and bulls. A break above the SMA will allow bulls to take back control and retest the 1.3000 resistance level. On the other hand, if the SMA holds firm, the price will challenge the 1.2851 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/27/gbp-usd-forecast-tariff-jitters-weigh-on-greenback/
2025-03-26 09:56
The EUR/USD forecast shows weak price action. The US president has proposed tariffs on automobiles, chips, and pharmaceuticals. Data revealed poor consumer sentiment in the US. The EUR/USD forecast shows weak price action as traders stick to the sidelines ahead of more Trump tariffs. The pair rose only slightly after news of progress towards a ceasefire deal between Ukraine and Russia. At the same time, news of poor US consumer sentiment barely moved traders. The euro has remained in a tight range this week as all focus shifts to Trump’s April tariffs. Traders prefer to stay on the sidelines due to uncertainty over Trump’s next moves. The US president has proposed tariffs on automobiles, chips, and pharmaceuticals. At the same time, markets expect reciprocal tariffs and levies on imports from Canada and Mexico. However, reports at the start of the week indicated a softer stance, with the president willing to exempt some countries from tariffs. Still, it remains unclear which these countries are. Elsewhere, the US brokered a deal to halt sea attacks and targets on energy. This massive step towards a ceasefire deal would boost the euro. However, the price barely reacted to the news. At the same time, data in the previous session revealed poor consumer sentiment in the US. The report indicated uncertainty about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the economy. EUR/USD key events today Traders do not expect any key releases from the US or the Eurozone today. Therefore, the price might remain in thin trading. EUR/USD technical forecast: Indecision keeps price near the 1.0800 support On the technical side, the EUR/USD price remains in a tight range near the 1.0800 key support level. Moreover, the bias is bearish, with the price trading below the 30-SMA and the RSI under 50. The tight consolidation is a sign of indecision. At the same time, it is a sign that bulls and bears are battling for control. Although the price recently broke below the 30-SMA, bears still need to break below 1.0800 support to start making lower highs and lows. A bearish RSI divergence signaled a decline in bullish momentum. This also meant the trend could reverse to the downside. However, if bulls only needed a pause, they might return to retest the 1.0950 resistance level. On the other hand, if bears take charge, the price will detach from the 1.0800 and fall to revisit the 1.0602 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/26/eur-usd-forecast-traders-hesitate-before-next-round-of-tariffs/
2025-03-26 08:33
The AUD/USD price analysis shows a strong Aussie despite downbeat inflation data. Inflation in Australia increased by a smaller-than-expected 2.4% annually. Data from the previous session revealed a big decline in US consumer confidence. The AUD/USD price analysis shows a strong Australian dollar despite downbeat inflation data from Australia. The rise in the Aussie came amid dollar weakness after poor consumer confidence data. At the same time, uncertainty regarding looming tariffs is weighing on the US currency. Data on Wednesday revealed that inflation in Australia increased by 2.4% annually. Meanwhile, economists had expected the figure to remain at 2.5%. The downbeat report increased expectations for rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA started its easing cycle in February but maintained a cautious tone regarding the future. More downbeat data from Australia will put pressure on policymakers to consider more rate cuts, pushing the Aussie lower. On the other hand, the US dollar started Wednesday down amid recession worries and tariff uncertainty. Data from the previous session revealed a big decline in consumer confidence, supporting recent concerns about an economic slowdown. Trump has imposed tariffs that have ignited trade wars, threatening the flow of goods between the US and its partners like China. Moreover, traders are anxiously awaiting new tariffs starting in April that might further hurt the US economy. Although Trump has assumed a softer stance, it remains unclear what he will do come April. AUD/USD key events today After Australia’s inflation report, traders do not expect any key releases today. AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bulls aiming for the 0.6390 resistance On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken above the 30-SMA after meeting a solid support at the 0.6275 level. The SMA break indicates a bullish sentiment shift that might allow the price to revisit the 0.6390 resistance level. On a larger scale, the price has mostly been moving sideways with no clear direction. Although there have been strong swings, they have remained between the 0.6200 support and the 0.6390 resistance levels. This is a sign that neither bears nor bulls are ready to commit to one direction. Therefore, although the price has broken above the 30-SMA, this bullish bias might only last until AUD/USD reaches the pivotal 0.6390 resistance level. Here, bears might resurface to push the price lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/26/aud-usd-price-analysis-aud-resilient-despite-soft-inflation-data/
