• The AUD/USD price analysis shows a strong Aussie despite downbeat inflation data.
• Inflation in Australia increased by a smaller-than-expected 2.4% annually.
• Data from the previous session revealed a big decline in US consumer confidence.

The AUD/USD price analysis shows a strong Australian dollar despite downbeat inflation data from Australia. The rise in the Aussie came amid dollar weakness after poor consumer confidence data. At the same time, uncertainty regarding looming tariffs is weighing on the US currency.

Data on Wednesday revealed that inflation in Australia increased by 2.4% annually. Meanwhile, economists had expected the figure to remain at 2.5%. The downbeat report increased expectations for rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA started its easing cycle in February but maintained a cautious tone regarding the future. More downbeat data from Australia will put pressure on policymakers to consider more rate cuts, pushing the Aussie lower.

On the other hand, the US dollar started Wednesday down amid recession worries and tariff uncertainty. Data from the previous session revealed a big decline in consumer confidence, supporting recent concerns about an economic slowdown. Trump has imposed tariffs that have ignited trade wars, threatening the flow of goods between the US and its partners like China.

Moreover, traders are anxiously awaiting new tariffs starting in April that might further hurt the US economy. Although Trump has assumed a softer stance, it remains unclear what he will do come April.

AUD/USD key events today

After Australia’s inflation report, traders do not expect any key releases today.

AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bulls aiming for the 0.6390 resistance

On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken above the 30-SMA after meeting a solid support at the 0.6275 level. The SMA break indicates a bullish sentiment shift that might allow the price to revisit the 0.6390 resistance level.

On a larger scale, the price has mostly been moving sideways with no clear direction. Although there have been strong swings, they have remained between the 0.6200 support and the 0.6390 resistance levels. This is a sign that neither bears nor bulls are ready to commit to one direction.

Therefore, although the price has broken above the 30-SMA, this bullish bias might only last until AUD/USD reaches the pivotal 0.6390 resistance level. Here, bears might resurface to push the price lower.

https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/26/aud-usd-price-analysis-aud-resilient-despite-soft-inflation-data/