2024-11-13 12:39

Markets are bracing for the upcoming US consumer inflation data. Markets are pricing a 69% chance of a December Fed rate cut. Data from Australia showed strong consumer and business sentiment. The AUD/USD price analysis shows a pause as indecision reigns ahead of the US consumer inflation figures. Meanwhile, the Aussie steadied its recent decline after economic figures from Australia on Tuesday showed strong consumer and business sentiment. –Are you interested to learn more about low spread forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Markets are bracing for the upcoming US consumer inflation data, which might show inflation increasing from 2.4% to 2.6%. Meanwhile, monthly price pressure might increase by 0.2%. This report will play a significant role in shaping the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Currently, markets are pricing a 69% chance that the US central bank will cut in December. This probability will likely change after the report. If inflation beats estimates, it might raise fears of renewed price pressures that would increase caution among policymakers. The US economy has already performed far better than expected, which has caused some to believe the Fed will pause in December. On the other hand, there is a chance inflation will miss forecasts. In this case, rate cut expectations will rise, and the dollar might drop from recent peaks. Since Tuesday last week, the greenback has been on a solid uptrend due to Trump’s election win. As a result, the Australian dollar has collapsed. However, the drop has been less than in other major currencies. Trump’s victory has also increased risk appetite, keeping the Australian dollar strong. Meanwhile, data from Australia on Tuesday revealed that consumer sentiment rose in November. A separate report showed that business sentiment was also strong in October. Recent upbeat figures have pushed back bets for the first RBA rate cut to May next year. AUD/USD key events today Core CPI m/m CPI m/m CPI y/y AUD/USD technical price analysis: Price breaks uptrend channel On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken its bullish trend pattern, indicating a bearish sentiment shift. Initially, the price had made a higher high and low. However, it failed to maintain this move as bears broke below the support trendline. Furthermore, the price breached the 0.6550 key support level to trade well below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI fell deeper into bearish territory. Given the new bearish momentum, AUD/USD might soon reach the 0.6500 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/13/aud-usd-price-analysis-investors-brace-for-pivotal-us-cpi-data/

2024-11-12 12:48

UK wage growth, excluding bonuses, cooled in September. The UK unemployment rate rose to 4.3% after a previous reading of 4.1%. Sterling has lost 1.1% of its value amid the Trump trade. The GBP/USD price analysis indicates a weaker UK labor market, increasing expectations for BoE rate cuts. At the same time, the pair is dropping as the dollar’s Trump trade rally continues. –Are you interested to learn more about low spread forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data on Tuesday revealed that UK wage growth, excluding bonuses, cooled, and unemployment rose. In September, the unemployment rate rose to 4.3% after a previous reading of 4.1%. Meanwhile, unemployment claims edged up from 10,100 to 26,700. The labor market drives a considerable part of the economy. Therefore, weakness in this sector is a big motivator for the Bank of England to continue lowering borrowing costs. However, the recent government budget raised the chances of a spike in inflation, which might keep policymakers cautious. On the other hand, dollar strength since Trump won the US election put downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Sterling has lost 1.1% of its value amid the Trump trade. The new US president has proposed policy changes to boost the US economy in the long run. Bigger tax cuts and tariffs on imported goods will benefit local businesses, heating up the economy. If this happens before inflation hits the 2% target, the Fed might be forced to pause its rate cuts and assess the situation. A cautious or hawkish shift will be bullish for the dollar. Meanwhile, traders are holding their breath before October’s inflation figures, which will shape the outlook for the December Fed meeting. GBP/USD key events today No key events will come after the UK employment figures. Therefore, traders will await tomorrow’s US inflation report. GBP/USD technical price analysis: Downtrend resumes after short pause On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken below the 1.2850 support level to make a lower low. Moreover, it has made a strong swing below the 30-SMA, a sign that bears are in the lead. Meanwhile, the RSI trades near the oversold region, indicating solid bearish momentum. Initially, the price was in a downtrend before it paused to consolidate between the 1.2850 support and the 1.3000 resistance. Therefore, the break below the range resistance signals a continuation of the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/12/gbp-usd-price-analysis-weaker-jobs-ignite-boe-rate-cut-bets/

2024-11-12 09:49

The euro wallowed near a seven-month low on Tuesday. Trump will likely impose higher tariffs on goods imported from the Eurozone. Market participants await the October US inflation figures. The EUR/USD outlook shows a steep decline as the euro suffers at the prospect of higher import tariffs in the US. Meanwhile, the dollar soared as Trump’s win painted a bright outlook for the US economy, reducing Fed rate cut expectations. –Are you interested to learn more about low spread forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The euro wallowed near a seven-month low as investors sold the currency after Trump’s presidential win. Trump will likely impose higher tariffs on goods imported from the Eurozone. Such an outcome will significantly hurt the Eurozone economy. On the other hand, it will boost the US economy as local businesses will flourish. At the same time, Trump’s proposal for more significant tax cuts will improve business conditions. A more robust economy will translate to higher inflation. The Federal Reserve recently pivoted from rate hikes to rate cuts. The US Central Bank increased interest rates to bring down sky-high inflation. Although price pressures have eased significantly from the peaks, the journey is not yet over. Inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Nevertheless, policymakers voted to start slashing rates because all indicators showed that inflation was in a downtrend and would soon hit the target. Unfortunately, that outlook might have changed with Trump’s win. Now, there is a chance that inflation will start increasing before it reaches the target. Consequently, the Fed might become more cautious about rate cuts. Meanwhile, market participants await the October US inflation figures for more clues on whether the Fed will cut in December. Traders currently price a lower 69% chance of a December rate cut. EUR/USD key events today Neither the US nor the Eurozone will release high-impact economic reports. Therefore, markets will keep digesting Trump’s win. EUR/USD technical outlook: Bears eye 1.0600 support in new downtrend On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has collapsed below the 1.0700 support to make a new low in the downtrend. Consequently, the bearish bias has strengthened since there is a lower high and low. At the same time, the price respects the 30-SMA as resistance, and the RSI is in the oversold region, suggesting solid bearish momentum. The trend shifted when the price made a strong evening star candlestick pattern. If the new trend continues, EUR/USD will soon break below the 1.0600 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/12/eur-usd-outlook-looming-trumps-trade-policy-sinks-eur/

2024-11-11 10:02

Data revealed that Canada’s economy added only 14,500 jobs. Market participants are pricing a 60% chance of a 50-bps BoC rate cut in December. Traders eagerly await US inflation data this week. The USD/CAD outlook suggests an extension of the move on Friday as the Canadian dollar remains weak after downbeat data. Meanwhile, the greenback was on the front foot at the start of a week packed with crucial US economic reports. –Are you interested to learn more about low spread forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The Canadian dollar plunged on Friday after domestic data revealed that the economy added only 14,500 jobs. Meanwhile, economists had expected a more significant increase of 27,900. Moreover, the actual figures came in well below the previous month’s increase of 46,700. On the other hand, the unemployment rate held steady at 6.5%. This report increased the likelihood of another super-sized Bank of Canada rate cut this year. Currently, market participants are pricing a 60% chance of a 50-bps rate cut in December. While the Bank of Canada becomes more aggressive with rate cuts, the Fed might adopt a more gradual pace. Consequently, a growing policy divergence between Canada and the US is weighing on the loonie. The greenback rallied last week after Donald Trump won the US election, shifting the outlook for fiscal and monetary policies. Under Trump’s administration, government spending will likely increase. At the same time, tax cuts and import tariffs will probably lead to a spike in inflation. Consequently, most analysts have adjusted the outlook for Fed rate cuts next year to fewer cuts. Nevertheless, markets expect another 25-bps rate cut in December. Elsewhere, traders eagerly await US inflation data this week that might increase or lower the likelihood of a December rate cut. USD/CAD key events today There won’t be any significant economic reports from Canada or the US today, meaning a slow start to the week. USD/CAD technical outlook: Bullish trend perplexed under 1.3951 On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is climbing towards the 1.3951 resistance level. It trades above the 30-SMA, with the RSI above 50, suggesting a bullish bias. However, there is no clear bias on a larger scale since the price is chopping through the 30-SMA. At the same time, it is trading within a range with support at 1.3825 and resistance at 1.3951. Nevertheless, there is a high chance this is a pause in the previous bullish trend. Therefore, a break above 1.3951 will signal a continuation of the uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/11/usd-cad-outlook-downbeat-data-weakens-canadian-dollar/

2024-11-11 08:53

The US will release consumer inflation data on Wednesday. Economists expect the CPI to increase by 0.2%. Bank of Japan policy meeting minutes revealed uncertainty about the next hike. The USD/JPY forecast brightened on Monday as the dollar rose ahead of crucial US inflation data during the week. Meanwhile, the yen weakened after Bank of Japan policy meeting minutes revealed uncertainty about the timing of the next rate hike. –Are you interested to learn more about low spread forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The US will release consumer inflation data on Wednesday and wholesale inflation data on Thursday. These reports will significantly shape the outlook for future Fed rate cuts. Economists expect the CPI to increase by 0.2%, holding steady from the previous month. A bigger-than-expected increase would lower the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December. On the other hand, if inflation aligns with expectations or is softer, the US central bank will likely cut rates again in December. Meanwhile, market participants will also watch the retail sales report on Friday for clues on consumer spending. Markets expect the Fed to cut rates again in December. However, since Trump won the presidential elections, bets for rate cuts in 2025 have dropped. Traders are pricing the likelihood that Trump’s policies will lead to an increase in inflation. Therefore, the Fed might be forced to cut rates at a slower pace or to pause and pivot. Meanwhile, the yen eased on Monday after BoJ meeting minutes revealed that policymakers were unsure about the timing of the next rate hike. Nevertheless, the currency rose last week when Trump won, and top officials warned markets about sharp yen declines. A Trump presidency means that the greenback will likely rally. Therefore, the yen might suffer, prompting the Bank of Japan to hike rates. USD/JPY key events today Market participants do not expect any high-impact reports today. Therefore, they will keep digesting the BoJ minutes. USD/JPY technical forecast: Bulls struggle to breach the 153.75 resistance On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is climbing and challenging the 153.75 resistance level. At the same time, on a larger scale, it is trading in a bullish channel with clear support and resistance lines. Bears recently pushed the price to around the channel support, where bulls took charge. Currently, the price trades above the 30-SMA, with the RSI in bullish territory. Therefore, the solid bullish bias will likely lead to a break above 153.75. This will allow USD/JPY to reach the 155.00 critical psychological level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/11/usd-jpy-forecast-markets-brace-for-key-us-inflation-data/

2024-11-10 09:57

Republican candidate Donald Trump won the US presidential election. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25-bps as expected. Next week, the US will release consumer and wholesale inflation data. The GBP/USD weekly forecast points south amid a drop in BoE rate cut expectations and a stronger dollar after Trump’s win. Ups and downs of GBP/USD After a volatile week, the pound ended on a bearish candle as market participants absorbed the US election results. After weeks of uncertainty, Republican candidate Donald Trump won the election. The win was bullish for the greenback because of the expectation of higher tariffs and tax cuts during Trump’s presidency. –Are you interested to learn more about low spread forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25-bps as expected. However, the pound rallied as policymakers noted that the new budget would likely increase inflation more than earlier expected. As a result, traders reduced the expected rate cuts in 2025 from four to three or two. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, the UK will release crucial employment figures shaping the outlook for Bank of England rate cuts. Already, economists do not expect another BoE rate cut this year. Robust employment figures will likely push back the timing of the next rate cut. At the same time, traders will focus on data on manufacturing production and gross domestic product that will show the state of the UK economy. Recent data has demonstrated better-than-expected economic performance, which has lowered the expected rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US will release consumer and wholesale inflation data that will determine the Fed’s future policy moves. If inflation is higher than forecast, the US central bank might hesitate to cut in December. On the other hand, rate cut expectations will surge on cooler-than-expected figures. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears target the 1.2701 support On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has collapsed further to make a new low below the 1.3000 key psychological level. At the same time, the price trades below the 22-SMA with the RSI in the bearish region below 50. After bulls paused at the 1.3400 resistance, bearish momentum surged, prompting the price to break below its support trendline and the 22-SMA. Therefore, control shifted from bulls to bears and has remained that way. At some point, bulls challenged the SMA and the 1.3000 but were not strong enough to take charge. Consequently, the coming week might see GBP/USD reaching the 1.2701. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/11/10/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-boe-rate-cut-weighs-on-pound/