2024-09-07 11:16
US employment figures showed that the labor market is slowing down. The US nonfarm payrolls report showed a smaller-than-expected job increase in August. US inflation data will be the last major report before the Fed’s policy meeting. The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows a temporary pause in a solid bullish trend as investors await the first Fed rate cut while the US NFP gives no clear direction. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The pound had a bearish week, fluctuating amid mixed US economic data. Meanwhile, the UK provided few catalysts. Employment figures showed that the labor market is slowing down. Vacancies fell more than expected, and private job growth slowed. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the nonfarm payrolls report showed a smaller-than-expected job increase in August. However, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Meanwhile, data on business activity in the services sector showed a better-than-expected improvement, indicating a resilient economy. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, investors will pay attention to the UK’s employment and GDP data. Meanwhile, the US will release consumer and producer inflation data. The pound has benefitted in recent weeks due to expectations for fewer rate cuts in the UK compared to the US. Therefore, if UK wage growth confirms fears that British services inflation remains high, BoE rate cut expectations might drop, boosting the pound. Moreover, the pound would rally, given the declining US labor market. The Fed is in a better position to start lowering borrowing costs. Meanwhile, US inflation data will be the last major report before the Fed’s policy meeting. Softer-than-expected figures will increase the likelihood of a 50-bps rate cut. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bullish trend pauses for a brief pullback On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is in a bullish trend. Although the price chops through the 22-SMA, it has maintained an upward trajectory. This means it has made a series of higher highs and lows. At the same time, the RSI has traded mostly above 50, supporting solid bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Bulls recently broke above the critical resistance level of 1.3000. However, they failed to trade above the 1.3200 resistance, allowing bears to take charge. Nevertheless, the bullish bias remains intact since the price is still above the SMA. Therefore, the pullback will likely pause at the SMA and bounce higher. On the other hand, if it punctures the SMA and the 1.3000 level, it might find support at the bullish trendline. A new high above 1.3200 will continue the bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/09/07/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-bulls-stall-bracing-for-fed-rate-cut/
2024-09-06 10:38
The greenback fell after several reports showed a mixed picture of the economy. The US private sector employed 99,000 more individuals, missing estimates of 144,000. Investors will pay close attention to the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report. The gold price analysis indicates solid bullish momentum as the yellow metal trades near a one-week high. Gold rallied in the previous session as the dollar fell after mixed economic signals. A weak dollar makes bullion cheaper for foreign traders, increasing demand. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- On Thursday, the greenback fell after several reports showed a mixed picture of the economy. Nevertheless, rate cut expectations remained high, putting pressure on the currency and supporting gold. The US private sector employed 99,000 more individuals, missing estimates of 144,000. This was a red flag for the labor market, raising the chances that the nonfarm payrolls report will also be poor. A weak labor market increases the likelihood of a 50-bps rate cut, which is bullish for gold. At the same time, it raises the risk of a recession. During times of economic uncertainty, investors run to safe-haven assets like gold. However, other US economic reports showed a slightly different picture. Unemployment claims fell more than expected last week, reducing fears of high joblessness. At the same time, business activity in the services sector jumped, showing economic resilience. Clearly, there are pockets of strength and weakness in the US economy. However, the focus of the Fed is the labor market. Consequently, investors will pay close attention to the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report. A weaker-than-expected performance will likely raise rate-cut bets and boost gold prices to new highs. Gold key events today US average hourly earnings m/m US nonfarm employment change US unemployment rate Gold technical price analysis: Bulls stagnate at $2,520 resistance On the technical side, gold is retesting the 2520.09 resistance level, with the price above the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI supports bullish momentum above 50. Therefore, the bias is bullish. Notably, gold has consolidated for a while between the 2480.38 support and the 2520.09 resistance. –Are you interested to learn more about automated trading? Check our detailed guide- The previous trend was bullish, increasing the chances that the price will break above the range resistance. However, the RSI shows weaker bullish momentum as it trades in a bearish channel. Therefore, to break above the channel resistance and make a new high, bulls need a surge in momentum. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/09/06/gold-price-analysis-testing-weekly-top-amid-weak-dollar/
2024-09-06 10:35
RBA governor Michele Bullock said it was too early to think about near-term rate cuts. Private employment in the US was lower than expected in August. ISM PMI data showed improved business activity in the US services sector. The AUD/USD outlook shows mild optimism after the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor maintained a hawkish tone in the previous session. At the same time, there was caution as markets eagerly anticipated the US monthly employment figures. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- On Thursday, RBA governor Michele Bullock said it was too early to think about near-term rate cuts. According to her, inflation in the country remains high, needing high rates for longer. Her remarks came despite data showing weak economic expansion in the second quarter. At the same time, Australia’s inflation cooled to 3.5% in July, nearing the central bank’s target range of 2-3%. RBA policymakers have maintained a cautious tone while other major central banks cut rates. Officials argue that since the RBA did not raise rates as high as other major central banks, they need more time to tame inflation. Nevertheless, investors still price a 42% chance of a rate cut in November. Meanwhile, the US dollar was bruised on Friday after mixed economic indicators. Data from the previous session revealed that private employment in the US was lower than expected. There were 99,000 new jobs, compared to forecasts of 144,000. Consequently, investors worried about a deteriorating labor market. However, another report showed a bigger-than-expected drop in jobless claims, easing fears of a rapid decline. At the same time, ISM PMI data showed improved business activity in the services sector. All eyes are now on the nonfarm payrolls report. Experts believe the figure will miss forecasts, given recent employment indicators. Therefore, the dollar might collapse. AUD/USD key events today US average hourly earnings m/m US nonfarm employment change US unemployment rate AUD/USD technical outlook: Weak bullish price action On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has risen to retest the 30-SMA resistance. The bullish move comes after the price found solid support at the 0.6700 key level. Despite this, bears remain in control, with the price below the SMA and the RSI under 50. –Are you interested to learn more about automated trading? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the bullish move shows weak price action consistent with a correction. Therefore, bears might emerge at the 30-SMA to push the price lower. A break below 0.6700 would create a lower low, strengthening the bearish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/09/06/aud-usd-outlook-optimism-persists-after-hawkish-rba/
2024-09-05 12:14
The yen traded near a one-month high on Thursday due to safe-haven demand. The US JOLTs job openings report revealed a smaller-than-expected number of vacancies at 7.67M. Investors will be keen to see the state of job growth and unemployment in the US. The USD/JPY outlook indicates a surge in bullish momentum for the yen as investors flee risky assets after more downbeat US data. Meanwhile, the dollar wallowed after collapsing amid an increase in bets for a significant September Fed rate cut. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- The yen traded near a one-month high on Thursday as safe-haven demand for Japan’s safe-haven currency rose. This rally came after US employment data pointed to weakness in the labor market. The JOLTs job openings report revealed a smaller-than-expected number of vacancies at 7.67M. Demand in the labor market is slowing down, raising fears of a looming recession. At the same time, expectations for a 50 bps rate cut are rising. Historically, significant Fed rate cuts have come before a recession. The sudden decline in the economy forces policymakers to lower borrowing costs fast. Consequently, when rate cut expectations surge, investors panic. Moreover, they dump risky assets and buy safer ones like the yen. This causes a lot of market turmoil. On Friday, investors will be keen to see the state of job growth and unemployment in the US. If there is more evidence of deterioration, the yen might continue rallying. However, the market turmoil could cloud the outlook for BoJ rate hikes. Meanwhile, the dollar might suffer due to a surge in rate-cut bets. At the moment, investors are pricing 110 bps of easing by the end of the year. USD/JPY key events today ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Claims ISM Services PMI USD/JPY technical outlook: Bears to attack the 142.03 support On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken below the 144.00 support level to make a new low. The bias is bearish as the price has fallen well below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI dipped to the oversold region, indicating a surge in bearish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about automated trading? Check our detailed guide- Bears took charge near the 147.00 key resistance level. Since then, price action has favored the bearish side, with tiny bullish candles. The downtrend will likely continue to the next support at 142.03. However, the price might retest the 144.00 level or the SMA before falling. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/09/05/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-rallies-as-investors-flee-risk/
2024-09-05 08:58
The US recorded a smaller-than-expected 7.67M job vacancies in July. Investors raised the likelihood of a 50 bps Fed rate cut to 45%. The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday as expected. The USD/CAD forecast points to renewed dollar weakness after downbeat data raised the likelihood of a super-sized September Fed rate cut. At the same time, the Canadian dollar firmed with oil after reports of a possible delay in the October OPEC+ output increase. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data on Wednesday showed that the US recorded 7.67M job vacancies in July. The figure reached a three-and-a-half-year low and missed estimates of 8.09M. Notably, the Fed is paying close attention to the labor market. Initially, this sector was the main driver of inflation. However, this has changed, and the labor market is showing weakness. Consequently, investors raised the likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut to 45%. As a result, the dollar slipped, pushing the USD/CAD pair lower. All eyes are now on the all-important nonfarm payrolls report. Economists expect some improvement from last month’s poor report. Therefore, any miss will likely cause a lot of market turmoil. The unemployment rate shows the risk of a recession. Thus, another unexpected jump could raise recession worries, further hurting the dollar. At the same time, it will solidify bets for a more significant rate cut. Meanwhile, as expected, the Bank of Canada cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday. The Canadian dollar rose as investors had already priced such a move. Furthermore, the currency got support after reports that OPEC+ is discussing delays to its planned October output increase. This news lifted oil prices because of prolonged market tightness. USD/CAD key events today US ADP nonfarm employment change US unemployment claims US ISM services PMI USD/CAD technical forecast: Price action points to bearish strength On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is on the verge of breaking below the 30-SMA, indicating a looming sentiment shift. Before this, the bulls were in the lead and heading for the 1.3600 resistance level. However, price action suddenly changed, and bears made a large candle, indicating a surge in momentum. At the same time, the RSI dipped into bearish territory below 50. –Are you interested to learn more about automated trading? Check our detailed guide- If the price breaks below the SMA, it will likely retest the 1.3450. A break below this level would indicate a continuation of the previous downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/09/05/usd-cad-forecast-odds-for-50-bps-cut-after-dismal-jobs-data/
2024-09-04 10:26
US data revealed continued contraction in the manufacturing sector. Wall Street and risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar plunged on Tuesday. Australia’s economy remained slow in the second quarter. The AUD/USD forecast shows more downside potential as the dollar hovers near recent peaks after an overnight rush of safe-haven inflows. However, it retreated slightly on Wednesday, allowing the Aussie to recover despite downbeat data from Australia. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- The dollar pulled back from recent highs as investors booked profits after a rally in the previous session. On Tuesday, US data revealed continued contraction in the manufacturing sector, raising fears the economy will tip into a recession. The ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 47.2, below estimates of 47.5. Investors have become very sensitive to economic reports as the economy slows down. Notably, Wall Street and risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian dollar plunged. Meanwhile, currencies considered safe havens, like the yen and the dollar, rallied. However, this move faded by Wednesday as the focus shifted to the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls. Slower-than-expected job growth and high unemployment could trigger another round of turmoil in the markets. Market participants are on high alert, looking for signs that the US economy is slowing too fast. Recession worries can hurt the Australian dollar and strengthen the US dollar. Elsewhere, data from Australia on Wednesday revealed that the economy remained slow in the second quarter. The GDP was at 0.2%, holding at the same rate as the previous quarter. Meanwhile, analysts had expected a 0.3% expansion. At the same time, the annual figure eased from 1.3% to 1.0%. High interest rates are curbing demand. As a result, investors are pricing a 90% chance of an RBA rate cut in December. AUD/USD key events today US JOLTS Job Openings AUD/USD technical forecast: Bears stall near 0.6700 On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has paused its decline at the 0.6700 key support level. It sits well below the 30-SMA with the RSI in bearish territory, indicating a bearish bias. The previous bullish trend reversed after the RSI made a bearish divergence. –Are you interested to learn more about automated trading? Check our detailed guide- The price has recovered slightly after finding support at the 0.6700 level. Bulls might trigger a pullback to the 30-SMA before the downtrend continues. However, if bearish momentum remains strong, the price will likely breach the support to retest the 0.6600 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/09/04/aud-usd-forecast-dollar-gains-amid-risk-flows/
