2023-11-13 05:26

NEW YORK, Nov 13 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed to its highest level in more than a year against the Japanese yen on Monday, near the key psychological level of 152, before falling sharply in a flurry of trading in $3.45 billion of options that come due this week. The dollar later traded little changed on expectations a soft reading of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) on Tuesday will keep Treasury yields trending lower as the market perceives the Federal Reserve is done hiking interest rates. The dollar early in the session shot to 151.92 yen , the highest since October 2022, about 20 minutes before some $1.25 billion in options contracts were set to expire with a 152 strike price, analysts said. The dollar suddenly dropped to 151.20, minutes after a 10 a.m. ET (1500 GMT) strike price deadline. Another $2.2 billion are set to expire on Wednesday, the analysts said. The yen's sharp rebound against the dollar was not due to Bank of Japan intervention, said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. "The dollar/yen came off after almost reaching last year's high at 10 a.m." he said. "The same thing happened in early October." Markets have been alert to potential intervention from Tokyo to shore up the battered yen. Earlier in Japan, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said the government would keep monitoring the currency market and respond appropriately. The dollar was last up 0.12% at 151.680 yen. The yen has fallen almost 14% against the dollar so far this year. Fed Chief Jerome Powell and policymakers want markets to be wary in the hope rates stay high and keep monetary policy tight without the need to raise the Fed's lending rate further, said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet.com. "That's why their rhetoric is much stronger than their actions right now," Trevisani said. "Rates are going to go down, bond prices are going to go up" if credit markets really think that the Fed is done raising rates, he said. "That'll take the dollar lower because I do think the Fed is pretty much done raising rates." The dollar index , a measure of the U.S. currency against six others, fell 0.09% at 105.64 . The reaction to a subdued CPI number is likely to be shallow because U.S. retail sales on Wednesday will be more important as they should better reveal the economy's strength, said Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and currency strategy at Amundi US in Boston. "All the signs have been pointing to continued momentum on consumption," Upadhyaya said. "If we see an upside surprise ... the markets are going to begin to price in a rate hike in December." The market barely reacted to news late on Friday that Moody's cut the outlook for U.S. credit to negative from stable. The euro rose up 0.15% to $ 1.0697 as sterling strengthened after a reshuffle of key posts in the British government by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Britain's currency rose about 0.44% at $1.2279 and about 0.27% firmer against the euro at around 87.14 pence after news of changes to the make-up of the UK government. Sunak brought back former leader David Cameron as foreign minister in a reshuffle triggered by his firing of Interior Minister Suella Braverman after her criticism of the police threatened his authority. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-firm-ahead-us-inflation-data-yen-hovers-near-one-year-low-2023-11-13/

2023-11-13 04:41

Brent, WTI futures rise by about a dollar a barrel OPEC says oil market fundamentals remain strong US probing suspected Russian oil sanctions violations - source Weak US and Chinese data have raised oil demand fears BENGALURU, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose by more than 1% on Monday after OPEC's monthly market report eased worries about waning demand and a U.S. probe into suspected violations of Russian oil sanctions raised concerns about potential supply disruptions. Brent crude futures rose by $1.09, or 1.3%, to settle at $82.52 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also gained $1.09, or 1.4%, to settle at $78.26 a barrel. In a monthly report, OPEC said oil market fundamentals remained strong and blamed speculators for a drop in prices. OPEC made a slight increase to its 2023 forecast for global oil demand growth and stuck to its relatively high 2024 prediction. "The OPEC monthly oil market report appeared to push back against demand concerns, referencing overblown negative sentiment around Chinese demand while raising demand growth forecasts for this year and leaving them unchanged for next," Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, said in a note. Oil prices were also lifted by reports of the U.S. Treasury Department cracking down on Russian oil exports, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Treasury sent notices to ship management companies for information on 100 vessels it suspects of violating Western sanctions on Russian oil, a source who has seen the documents told Reuters. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said last week the country's crude oil production this year will rise by slightly less than expected and demand will fall. On Monday, the EIA forecast U.S. oil output would decline in December for the second consecutive month. Weak economic data last week from No. 1 crude importer China fed fears of faltering demand. Chinese refiners asked for less supply for December from Saudi Arabia, the world's largest exporter. Still, oil prices may have found a bottom after they slid about 4% last week and recorded their first three-week declining streak since May, said Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at City Index. "Given that oil prices have weakened in the last few weeks, Saudi Arabia and Russia will likely continue with their voluntary supply cuts into next year. This should therefore limit the downside potential," Razaqzada said. Last week, top oil exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia, part of the group known as OPEC+, confirmed they would continue with additional voluntary oil output cuts until the end of the year as concerns over demand and economic growth continue to drag on crude markets. The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for Nov. 26. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-ease-worries-waning-demand-us-china-2023-11-13/

2023-11-13 01:20

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Rising demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the top importing regions of Asia and Europe hasn't been enough to spark an increase in spot prices, which continue to languish. The price of spot LNG for delivery to north Asia slipped to $16.50 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the week to Nov. 10, down from $17.00 the prior week. The price has dropped for three consecutive weeks, but is still higher than the recent low of $13.50 per mmBtu for the seven days to Oct. 6. The usual pattern for the spot price in Asia is a rally into the northern winter followed by a decline in the lower demand shoulder season ahead of summer. However, prices have so far failed to get their usual seasonal bump as demand remains relatively subdued and supply is more than adequate, especially from the United States. Asia's imports of LNG are forecast to rise to 22.67 million metric tons in November from October's 21.18 million, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. The November figure will also be a slight increase from the 21.41 million metric tons from the same month last year. Much of the increase in Asia's imports of the super-chilled fuel comes from China, the world's second-biggest buyer, with Kpler estimating arrivals of 5.67 million metric tons in November, up from 5.41 million in October, but still below the 6.12 million from November 2022. Japan, the world's biggest LNG importer, is expected to see arrivals of 5.41 million metric tons in November, unchanged from October and slightly down from 5.65 million in November last year. India, Asia's fourth-biggest LNG buyer, is expected to import 1.3 million metric tons in November, down from 1.85 million in October. India is viewed as a price-sensitive buyer and the rally in the spot price from the early October low to a high of $17.90 per mmBtu in the week to Oct. 20 most likely dulled appetite for spot cargoes. EUROPE GAINS Europe's imports of LNG are expected to rise in November to 10.12 million metric tons, up from 9.50 million in October and the strongest month since May, according to Kpler. However, Europe's November arrivals are expected to be below the 11.76 million metric tons from the same month in 2022. Europe turned to LNG in the wake of the loss of much of its pipeline supply of natural gas from Russia after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. A combination of demand destruction and high LNG imports up until May this year has resulted in Europe's gas inventories reaching 99.6% full, meaning there is reduced need for additional LNG. A colder-than-usual winter may drain inventories, but even in this scenario it's unlikely Europe would have to call for additional LNG until January or February. Europe is buying more LNG from the United States, which is able to offer lower prices than other major exporters such as Qatar because of a surplus of domestic gas output. Europe's imports of U.S. LNG are expected to reach 5.45 million metric tons in November, up from 3.98 million in October, and the highest since April. More U.S. LNG is also heading to Asia, with November imports slated at 1.97 million metric tons, up from 1.83 million in October. While there are some supply concerns such as potential new sanctions on Russia's Arctic LNG-2 project and an electrical fault at Chevron's Gorgon plant in Western Australia, these are not enough to alter the comfortable supply outlook. This leaves the spot price at the mercy of demand, and while there has been some uptick in both Asia and Europe, it hasn't been enough to drive spot prices higher. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uptick-lng-demand-asia-europe-insufficient-drive-prices-russell-2023-11-13/

2023-11-12 23:47

SYDNEY, Nov 13 (Reuters) - DP World Australia, one of the country's largest ports operators, said on Monday operations had resumed at all its facilities after a cyber security incident forced it to suspend operations for three days. The breach had crippled operations at the company, which manages about 40% of the goods that flow in and out of Australia, affecting its container terminals in Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and Western Australia's Fremantle. "Operations resumed at the company's ports across Australia at 9 a.m. today (2200 GMT, Sunday) ... following successful tests of key systems overnight," the company, part of Dubai's state-owned DP World, said in a statement. DP World expects to move about 5,000 containers from the four Australian terminals through the day, although ongoing investigation and responses to protect its networks could result in temporary disruptions over the next few days. "This is a part of an investigation process and resuming normal logistical operations at this scale," DP World said. After spotting the breach on Friday, DP World, one of a handful of stevedore industry players in Australia, disconnected internet, significantly impacting freight movements. Australia has seen a rise in cyber intrusions since late last year, prompting the government in February to reform rules and set up an agency to help coordinate responses to hacks. "(The DP World breach) does show how vulnerable we have been in this country to cyber incidents and how much better we need to work together to make sure we keep our citizens safe," Cyber Security Minister Clare O'Neil told ABC Radio. The breach comes as the government on Monday released some details of its proposed cyber security laws that would force companies to report all ransomware incidents, demands or payments. DP World did not specify if it received any ransomware demands. O'Neil said the rules would also bring telecommunication companies under "strict cyber requirements", after an outage last week at telco Optus cut off internet and phone connections to nearly half of Australia's population for about 12 hours. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-ports-operator-could-be-online-within-days-after-cyber-incident-2023-11-12/

2023-11-12 23:00

SINGAPORE/LONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) - China, the world's top importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), is increasingly re-selling some of the super-chilled fuel to other Asian buyers as it looks to profit from price swings. Armed with a growing portfolio of long-term supply deals recently struck with Qatar and U.S. exporters, as well as extensive terminal capacity, Chinese companies led by state giant PetroChina are more actively trading LNG, but still lag far behind global majors such as BP, Shell and TotalEnergies. Chinese customs data shows that China reloaded 617,000 metric tons of imported LNG during the first nine months of this year, compared with 576,000 tons in all of 2022, 26,000 tons in 2021 and 59,000 tons in 2020. China's LNG sales have increased along with rising Asian demand after the disruption in Russian exports to Europe from the Ukraine war sparked price volatility and tightened supplies globally. Asia spot prices soared to record highs of $70 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) last year. They have since eased to $17/mmBtu, encouraging demand from Asian buyers, but are still above single-digit levels seen before Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. Top Chinese LNG trader PetroChina International (PCI) is spearheading the retrading, which is recorded by Chinese customs as exports from bonded storage tanks. South Korea has been the top buyer so far this year, taking 27% of China's reloads, followed by Thailand, Bangladesh, and Japan, as well as Kuwait, Chinese customs data showed. "We need to pull all levers when it comes to managing market swings," Zhang Yaoyu, PCI's global head of LNG, told Reuters. Re-selling LNG cargoes is one initiative among others - such as using financial derivatives products and developing infrastructure like regasification terminals and underground storage - to offset market volatility and improve overall supply security, he said. Still, the trading volume is a small fraction of PCI's supply portfolio, and fluctuates depending on market conditions, Zhang added. While Qatari contracts carry rigid destination clauses, most U.S. supplies and some purchases from global portfolio players are tradeable. China also receives some LNG from Australia and Indonesia with flexible destination clauses. HAINAN ISLAND HUB State trader CNOOC and privately controlled Jovo Energy also re-exported a cargo each this year, both to Japan, Kpler data shows. The main reloading point has been the Yangpu regasification terminal, in the southern island province of Hainan, which can handle 3 million tons of LNG annually and is closer to southeast and south Asian buyers than China's east coast terminals, according to Kpler and ICIS. Chinese LNG buyers have also been setting up or expanding trading desks in London and Singapore to better manage their supply portfolios. CATCHING UP China is now the world's second largest LNG re-exporter after Spain, which exported 1.7 million tons in 2022 and 1.15 million tons so far in 2023, Kpler data showed. "This could lead to it taking up a similar role in Asia to one that Spain has had in Europe... as a key centre for reloading cargoes, helping to offer flexibility to the market," said ICIS LNG analyst Alex Froley. China's LNG receiving capacity is expected to expand 30% to nearly 182 million tons annually by 2025 from 139 million tons this year, CNOOC has estimated. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/top-lng-importer-china-re-selling-more-cargoes-eyes-trading-gains-2023-11-10/

2023-11-12 21:47

Nov 13 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Asian markets should get the week off to a blistering start on Monday, propelled higher by Wall Street's powerful rally on Friday that saw the Nasdaq rise more than 2% for its best day since May. It is a big week for China watchers with a U.S.-Sino Presidential meeting, a raft of top-tier economic data and several blue chip corporate earnings releases all on the docket over the next five days. Other economic and policy highlights across the continent this week include preliminary Japanese third-quarter GDP, Indian inflation, and a policy decision from the Philippine central bank on Thursday. There is certainly room for upside potential for Asian markets after the MSCI Asia & Pacific equity index ex-Japan fell 0.5% last week, underperforming the broader MSCI Emerging Market index, which ended the week flat. Financial conditions are broadly easing too, according to Goldman Sachs's financial conditions indices (FCI). Some, like the China and aggregate emerging market indexes, last week fell to their lowest in three months. Perhaps the most interesting of all Goldman's FCIs is its Japanese index. On Friday it fell to 96.78, matching the lows struck on July 3 and 4. Remarkably, that is the lowest since March 1990. By this measure, financial conditions in Japan are the loosest in almost 34 years - that's the combined effect of the yen's weakness, the stock market's recent 33-year highs, negative interest rates, and deeply negative real bond yields. In theory, that is inflationary and should be boosting growth. Inflation is relatively sticky - the Bank of Japan is inching away from its ultra-loose policy - but economic activity is not meeting analysts' expectations. Citi's economic surprises index for Japan turned negative last week and is now the lowest since June. On the Japanese corporate front this week, meanwhile, big firms reporting earnings include financials Mizuho, Mitsubishi UFJ and Sumitomo. The Chinese news flow this week is potentially huge. On the political front, U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet face to face this week at the Nov. 15-17 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) gathering of leaders in San Francisco. The economic data pipeline is full of top-tier releases too. They include money supply, lending and 'total social financing' - basically a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy - while on Wednesday markets will digest October's retail sales, industrial production and unemployment figures. Some of China's biggest companies are scheduled to report their latest earnings this week. They include JD.com, Tencent Holdings, Alibaba Group and Lenovo. Where do Chinese equities stand ahead of all that? The blue chip CSI 300 index last week rose 0.066% - barely in positive territory, but enough to make it three weeks in a row of gains, its best run since March. That said, the index still failed in these three weeks to claw back the 4.1% losses from the week ending Oct. 20. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday: - India CPI inflation (October) - APEC finance ministers meet in San Francisco - Japan corporate goods prices (October) https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-view-asia-graphics-pix-2023-11-12/