2024-03-28 08:31

The yen recovered as investors became cautious amid intervention warnings. Masato Kanda warned that authorities would do everything necessary to support the yen. Economists believe the US GDP will hold at 3.2%. The USD/JPY forecast leans slightly bearish as Japan’s intervention warnings breathe new life into the yen. After hitting a 34-year low on Wednesday, the yen recovered as investors became cautious amid warnings from Japanese authorities. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- Notably, the yen has weakened sharply since the Bank of Japan shifted its monetary policy by hiking interest rates. This weakness came as markets realized that the shift in policy would be slow and gradual. Consequently, the gap in interest rates between the US and Japan will remain significant. Still, Japanese policymakers believe the market reaction is exaggerated. Therefore, a number of top officials have come out to warn markets against sharp declines in Japan’s currency. On Wednesday, top currency diplomat Masato Kanda warned that authorities would do everything necessary to stop further sharp currency moves. However, current fundamentals show a possible further downside for the currency. A slow hiking cycle would keep the yen vulnerable as other major central banks maintain higher interest rates. Additionally, inflation might miss BoJ forecasts as economists expect a drop in Tokyo’s inflation. Therefore, there is a big chance that Japan will step in to support its weak currency. On the other hand, the dollar was steady on Thursday as investors prepared for more economic data. The US will release data on economic growth and unemployment claims. Economists believe the US GDP will hold at 3.2%. A higher-than-expected figure could push USD/JPY higher. USD/JPY key events today US final GDP q/q US unemployment claims US pending home sales m/m US consumer sentiment USD/JPY technical forecast: Bears signal a looming takeover On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is retreating after nearing the 152.01 key resistance level. Moreover, bears are attempting a takeover that would see the price decline. The bullish trend weakened when the price neared 152.01. Notably, the price started trading near the 30-SMA support, and the RSI showed a bearish divergence. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Furthermore, bears showed strength when the price made a solid bearish engulfing candle that broke below the 30-SMA. At the moment, the price is still retesting the recently broken SMA. If bears are ready to take over, the price will soon retest to the 150.00 key support level, which is near the 0.382 Fib retracement level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/28/usd-jpy-forecast-japans-intervention-warnings-boost-yen/

2024-03-27 12:29

Despite the upbeat Spanish CPI, the EUR/USD price remains under selling pressure. Markets await the Final US GDP Price Index for fresh momentum. Technically, the 1.0800 level provides strong support. The EUR/USD price remained bearish on Wednesday despite minor rebounds. The pair is trading at 1.0820 at the time of writing. The bearish trend remains dominating amid a stronger dollar. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- The greenback remains bullish despite some poor US economic data reported yesterday. The CB Consumer Confidence came in at 104.7 points below 106.9 points expected and under 104.8 in the previous reporting period. Richmond Manufacturing Index was reported at -11 points versus the -5 estimated, HPI dropped by 0.1% even if the traders expected a 0.2% growth, while the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI matched expectations. Furthermore, the Durable and Core Durable Orders came in better than expected. Today, the Spanish Flash CPI came in better than expected, but the EUR could not capitalize on it. The German Retail Sales and German Unemployment Change could bring life to the EUR/USD pair tomorrow. The US will release Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, Pending Home Sales, Final GDP, Unemployment Claims, Chicago PMI, and Final GDP Price Index. Positive economic data lifts the greenback. Technically, the currency pair rebounded after failing to reach the 1.08 psychological level or to stay below the descending pitchfork’s median line (ml). The rebound was temporary as the price couldn’t stay above the weekly pivot point of 1.0850. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- After the minor rally, a retreat could be natural as the price could try to retest the support levels and demand zones to accumulate bullish energy and buyers. We have a strong demand zone above the 1.08 psychological level. Retesting this zone and printing only false breakdowns should trigger a new bullish momentum. Dropping and closing below 1.08 and under the median line (ml) may ignite further declines. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/27/eur-usd-price-looking-to-pierce-1-08-eyes-on-us-gdp/

2024-03-27 10:49

BoC’s Carolyn Rogers urged businesses to increase productivity by supporting investment. Data from Canada revealed a 0.8% increase in wholesale trade in February. The dollar was steady as investors prepared for more inflation data this week. The USD/CAD forecast turns bullish today as the Canadian dollar is losing ground, spurred by the Bank of Canada’s observation of persistently low productivity in Canada. Moreover, the loonie weakened alongside plummeting oil prices. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- BoC’s Carolyn Rogers said that Canada’s economy was vulnerable to inflation due to low productivity. Therefore, she urged businesses to increase productivity by supporting investment. Moreover, the BoC expects little growth in the economy this year. It is very difficult for a central bank to control inflation when the economy is weak. The best weapon against inflation is high interest rates. However, if the economy is weak, higher borrowing costs could lead to a recession before inflation gets to the central bank’s target. Meanwhile, data from Canada revealed a 0.8% increase in wholesale trade in February. Furthermore, USD/CAD rose as oil prices declined. This decline came due to a surge in US crude inventories, which reflects weaker demand. Additionally, investors do not expect any policy changes when the OPEC group meets next week. Elsewhere, the dollar was steady as investors prepared for more inflation data this week. The core PCE price index will likely cause a lot of volatility as it will shape the Fed’s rate-cut outlook. USD/CAD key events today No major events are coming from Canada or the US today. As a result, the pair will likely consolidate. USD/CAD technical forecast: Price faces 1.3600 hurdle following 30-SMA rebound On the charts, the USD/CAD price is facing the 1.3600 barrier again after finding support at the 30-SMA. At the same time, the price bounced off the 0.382 Fib retracement level and might make a new high. The return of bulls at the SMA line confirms a strong bullish bias. Meanwhile, the RSI, which trades above 50, supports solid bullish momentum. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Therefore, bulls will likely attempt to break above the 1.3600 key resistance level. A break above would allow the price to start trending after a period of consolidation. On the other hand, if the 1.3600 resistance holds firm as it has done before, the price will likely fall back to the 1.3475 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/27/usd-cad-forecast-bank-of-canada-flags-low-productivity/

2024-03-27 08:32

Australia’s headline inflation figure rose by 3.4% in February. The chances of an RBA rate cut in August have risen to 68%. There is a 71% chance that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in June. Today’s AUD/USD price analysis shows a slight bearish tilt following the release of data showing Australia’s inflation missed forecasts. This revelation has sparked speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia might be inclined to initiate rate cuts as early as August. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- Australia’s headline inflation figure rose by 3.4% in February, holding steady from January. Meanwhile, economists had expected inflation to rise by 3.5%. However, underlying inflation remained high, showing inflation was still persistent. As a result, the Australian dollar fell briefly before recovering. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently assumed a less hawkish stance due to the decline in inflation. Moreover, Australia’s economy has slowed down due to the high-interest rates. As a result, the chances of an RBA rate cut in August have risen to 68%. Still, this would put the RBA among the last major central banks to hike. Therefore, it gives the Australian dollar an edge over its peers. Notably, there is a 71% chance that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in June. This is much earlier than the RBA. However, the dollar has remained strong as data contradicts the rate-cut outlook. Although Powell maintains that the Fed will cut rates three times this year, data on inflation and economic performance suggest otherwise. Consequently, there is a bit of uncertainty regarding the rate-cut outlook. AUD/USD key events today Traders will keep absorbing Australia’s CPI report as there are no more key events scheduled for today. AUD/USD technical price analysis: Price retreats after failed 30-SMA break On the technical side, AUD/USD bounced lower after failing to break above the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI respected the 50 mark as resistance and bounced lower. This is a sign that bears are not ready to give up control. However, bears have also weakened as the price is now making small-bodied candles. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Moreover, the decline has failed to break below a solid support zone comprising the 0.6520 key level and its bullish channel support. The price bounces higher every time it gets to this zone. Therefore, there is a high chance that bulls will soon retest the 30-SMA with the aim of breaking above and retesting the channel resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/27/aud-usd-price-analysis-australias-inflation-below-expectations/

2024-03-26 12:40

The R1 is seen as the next potential target. The bias is bullish as long as it stays within the ascending pitchfork’s body. The US data could shake the price later today. The EUR/USD price rallied in the short term, briefly moving above the mid-1.0800 level. The pair looks to correct the strong sell-off seen last week. Fundamentally, the US dollar took a hit from the US New Home Sales yesterday. The economic indicator came in at 662K, versus 675K expected and below 664K in the previous reporting period. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- Today, the EUR received a helping hand from the German Gfk Consumer Climate, which jumped from -28.8 points to -27.4 points. Later, the US economic data should be decisive in the short term. Durable Goods Orders may announce a 1.2% growth after a 6.2% drop in the previous reporting period, while Core Durable Orders should report a 0.4% growth in February after a 0.4% drop in January. The HPI and S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI could report better data in January compared to December. The most important event is the CB Consumer Confidence. The indicator is expected to jump from 106.7 points to 106.9 points, which could be good from the USD. Technically, the EUR/USD pair bounced back after reaching the demand zone above the 1.0800 psychological level. Now, it has passed above the weekly pivot point of 1.0850 and it seems determined to approach new highs. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- I’ve drawn an ascending pitchfork, trying to catch a larger growth. The price tested the lower median line (lml), confirming this as a dynamic support. The price could extend its swing if it stays within the ascending pitchfork’s body. The weekly R1 of 1.0898 and the median line (ml) represent potential targets. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/26/eur-usd-price-recovers-amid-poor-us-new-home-sales-data/

2024-03-26 10:12

The pound recovered on Tuesday as the dollar weakened. BoE policymakers assumed a more dovish stance last week. Investors will remain cautious as they await more data on US inflation. The GBP/USD price analysis shows bullish optimism as the pair stages a recovery fueled by the dollar’s decline. However, beneath the surface, fundamental factors hint at potential downside ahead for the pair. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- After the Bank of England’s dovish policy meeting, the pound recently made new lows. Meanwhile, the dollar pulled back from recent highs as investors took profits after last week’s rally. However, UK and US fundamentals support more declines for the pair. At last week’s meeting, BoE policymakers assumed a more dovish stance, raising bets that the central bank will cut rates in June. This is a significant shift from the previous outlook. Initially, investors had expected the BoE to be among the last central banks to cut interest rates. Moreover, inflation in the UK remained much higher than in other G10 economies. However, with inflation easing, policymakers no longer call for rate hikes. This sets the stage for a weaker pound. On the other hand, US inflation has remained stubborn, leading to caution among Fed policymakers. Consequently, there is less confidence that inflation is consistently declining, leading to uncertainty about the rate-cut outlook. In this case, the dollar should be strengthening. Therefore, the recent pause might be brief before the rally continues. However, investors will remain cautious as they await more data on inflation. On Friday, the US will release the core PCE price index. This report will play a significant role in shaping the outlook for Fed interest rates. GBP/USD key events today US CB Consumer Confidence GBP/USD technical price analysis: Rebound pauses at the 1.2650 barrier On the charts, GBP/USD has recovered to retest the recently broken 1.2650 key level as resistance. However, the bias is still bearish as the price trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI under the pivotal 50 mark. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- The price recently broke below a strong bullish trendline and the 1.2650 key support, confirming a change in direction. Therefore, the downtrend will continue if the 1.2650 level holds firm as resistance. The next target for the decline is at the 1.2550 support level. However, there is a chance the price will break above to retest the trendline before continuing lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/26/gbp-usd-price-analysis-dollar-weakness-briefly-lifts-pound/