2024-03-23 09:13
The Reserve Bank of Australia held rates on Tuesday and took on a more neutral tone. The Fed had a more dovish policy meeting, weakening the dollar. The US released better-than-expected manufacturing PMI data. The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows bearish prospects as the dollar flexes its muscles once again, fueled by the resilience of the US economy. Ups and downs of AUD/USD AUD/USD had a bearish week where the RBA was less hawkish. Notably, the Reserve Bank of Australia held rates on Tuesday and took on a more neutral tone, reducing rate hike talks. As a result, rate-cut bets increased. Meanwhile, the Fed had a more dovish policy meeting, leading to a decline in the dollar. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- On Thursday, the pair soared when Australia released a blockbuster jobs report. Employment jumped while the unemployment rate fell, indicating a tight labor market. Finally, the pair fell when the US released better-than-expected manufacturing PMI data. Moreover, initial jobless claims fell last week, indicating tightness in the labor market. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week might be relatively slow after a week packed with high-impact events. Investors will only focus on data from the US, including the durable goods orders and the gross domestic product. These reports will show the state of the economy, influencing the Fed’s rate cut outlook. The orders for durable goods are a good indicator of the manufacturing sector, which makes up a big part of the US economy. Moreover, it shows the state of consumer spending. If consumers can afford to make big purchases, it is a good indicator of a strong economy. Meanwhile, the gross domestic product will show economic growth and whether higher interest rates have impacted the economy. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: 0.5 Fib resistance holds firm On the technical side, AUD/USD is falling after finding resistance at the 0.5 key Fib retracement level. Bears had taken control when the price broke below the 22-SMA and went on to make lower lows. However, the decline paused when bulls broke above the 22-SMA, allowing the AUD/USD to recover. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Unfortunately, the rebound was shallow, showing it was a corrective move. As a result, bears took back control when the price retraced 50% of the previous downtrend. However, to confirm the continuation of the previous trend, bears must start making lower lows and highs. If the decline continues next week, the price will target the 0.6301 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/23/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-upbeat-data-ignites-dollar-strength/
2024-03-22 14:12
The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above R2. A new higher high activates further growth. Failing to stay above the median line (ml) could reveal exhausted buyers. The USD/JPY price changed slightly on Friday, wobbling near the 151.00 handle at the time of writing. The bias remains bullish, with a higher probability of continued growth. However, the prices may experience a correction amid profit-taking. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- The greenback dominated the currency market as the Dollar Index marked fresh weekly highs. Yesterday, the Japanese Trade Balance and Flash Manufacturing PMI came in better than expected, while the National Core CPI aligned with expectations today. On the other hand, the greenback remains bullish, even though the US reported mixed data. The Flash Services PMI came in at 51.7 versus 52.0 expected, confirming a slowdown in expansion. Flash Manufacturing PMI jumped from 52.2 to 52.5 points, above the 51.8 points expected, while Unemployment Claims came in at 210K in the last week, better compared to 212K in the previous reporting period. Furthermore, the Existing Home Sales, CB Leading Index, Current Account, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index also came in better than expected. Today, the Canadian Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales came in better than expected and could help the greenback continue its appreciation despite minor drops. Technically, the USD/JPY price jumped above the ascending pitchfork’s median line (ml) but failed again to stay above this dynamic resistance, signaling buyers’ exhaustion. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- The 151.90 and 151.94 represent static resistance levels. Still, the bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the 151.00 psychological level and the R2 of 150.89. A new lower low may trigger more declines. On the contrary, taking out the median line (ml) and the 151.94 validates an upside continuation. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/22/usd-jpy-price-remains-strong-amid-upbeat-us-data/
2024-03-22 10:05
The dollar recovered after US economic data pointed to a strong economy. Data on Thursday revealed a drop in initial jobless claims from last week. Inflation in Canada fell more than expected in February. Friday’s USD/CAD price analysis points northward as the dollar rides high on positive US data. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar is weaker after the BoC deputy governor’s comments regarding encouraging February inflation figures. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- The dollar recovered on Thursday and Friday after US economic data pointed to a strong economy. Consequently, short-term Treasury yields, which reflect interest rate expectations, rose. Notably, data on Thursday revealed a drop in initial jobless claims from last week. A decline in claims for unemployment benefits shows the unemployment rate fell, indicating a tight labor market. Meanwhile, other data revealed a jump in sales of previously owned US homes in February. This is a sign that demand in the housing market, which drives the economy, rose. However, despite this economic resilience, the outlook for rate cuts held after Powell maintained that inflation was in a downtrend. On the other hand, inflation in Canada fell more than expected in February, according to figures released on Tuesday. This is a sign that the Bank of Canada is slowly achieving its goal of lowering inflation. As a result, rate-cut bets have gone up, weakening the Canadian dollar. Furthermore, Bank of Canada deputy governor Toni Gravelle noted the decline in inflation, saying it was encouraging. This indicates confidence that inflation is dropping, supporting a dovish stance. The loonie was also weaker as oil prices fell on the likelihood of a ceasefire in the Gaza war. Such an outcome would reduce supply worries, making oil cheaper. USD/CAD key events today Fed Chair Powell Speaks USD/CAD technical price analysis: Battling between 1.3460 and 1.3600 levels On the charts, USD/CAD is trapped in a range between the 1.3460 support and the 1.3600 resistance levels. Consequently, the price keeps chopping through the 30-SMA while the RSI chops through the pivotal 50 mark. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- Still, within the range, the bias is bullish as the price is above the 30-SMA with the RSI over 50. The bullish move came after the price retested the range support and failed to break below. The move will likely soon reach the range resistance at 1.3600, where it might pause, reverse, or break above. A break above would signal the start of a bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/22/usd-cad-price-analysis-dollar-strengthens-on-upbeat-us-data/
2024-03-22 09:48
The Bank of England held rates on Thursday. UK inflation fell from 4.0% in January to 3.4% in February. There is a 75% chance that the Bank of England will cut rates in June. The GBP/USD outlook soured as the pound’s decline deepened following the BoE’s rate cut signal. The Bank of England held rates on Thursday and said conditions might soon allow the central bank to start cutting rates. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- For months, the pound has benefitted from the view that the BoE would be among the last major central banks to cut rates. However, that view has changed, and the currency is falling. Britain has had much higher inflation than most major economies. Consequently, the BoE has remained hawkish as other central banks prepare to cut rates. However, data on Wednesday revealed a more significant than expected decline in inflation in February. Inflation fell from 4.0% in January to 3.4% in February. As a result, there is no more reason for the BoE to remain hawkish. Most hawkish policymakers became more neutral at the policy meeting, agreeing to hold current rates. Consequently, there was an increase in rate-cut bets. Currently, there is a 75% chance that the Bank of England will cut rates in June, an increase from 65% before the meeting. Meanwhile, the Fed was also dovish at the policy meeting on Wednesday, maintaining its outlook for rate cuts. Markets expect the first Fed cut in June. Moreover, Powell kept his forecast for three rate cuts in 2024. Moving forward, investors will focus on which side will be more dovish as central banks move closer to rate cuts. Additionally, they will focus on the expected size and pace of rate cuts. GBP/USD key events today Euro Summit Fed Chair Powell Speaks GBP/USD technical outlook: Key support broken On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken below a major support trendline to make a lower low. Moreover, the price has broken below the 1.2650 key support level, pushing well below the 30-SMA. The RSI is trading near the oversold region, showing strong momentum in the decline. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- Notably, bears showed the first sign that they were ready to take over when the price made a lower high near the 1.2800 key resistance level. They confirmed this new direction when the price broke below the previous low. Therefore, the price might soon retest the 1.2550 key support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/22/gbp-usd-outlook-pound-extends-slide-as-boe-signals-rate-cuts/
2024-03-21 12:13
The EUR/USD price could resume growth if it stays above the median line. The US manufacturing and services data should move the rate. A new lower low activates a deeper drop. The EUR/USD price is trading in the red at 1.0907 at the time of writing. The pair is under mild selling pressure amid the dollar’s recovery. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- The greenback is fighting hard to rebound after last night’s massive sell-off after the FOMC. The Federal Reserve left monetary policy unchanged and the Federal Funds Rate at 5.50%. Still, the greenback depreciated versus all its rivals as the FED confirmed a 75 bps rate cut during the year. As expected, the FOMC Press Conference brought strong volatility. Today, the fundamentals should drive the price as well. The Eurozone Flash Services PMI came in at 51.1 versus 50.5 expected, confirming further expansion. Flash Manufacturing PMI dropped from 46.5 to 45.7 points, confirming further contraction. Meanwhile, the German and French manufacturing and services sectors remain in contraction territory. Later, the US data could be decisive. The Flash Manufacturing PMI may drop from 52.2 to 51.8, signaling a slowdown in expansion. At the same time, the Flash Services PMI is expected to drop to 52.0 points versus 52.3 points in the previous reporting period. In addition, the Existing Home Sales, CB Leading Index, Current Account, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Unemployment Claims data will also be released. Technically, the currency pair found support on the lower median line (lml) of the ascending pitchfork, representing dynamic support. Now, it has passed above the median line, a dynamic resistance. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- The pair is struggling to stay above the median line (ml) and the weekly pivot point of 1.0908 after crashing from right below the R1 of 1.0943. Stabilizing above these broken levels may signal further growth in the short term. Only a new lower low could trigger a deeper drop. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/21/eur-usd-price-stabilizing-above-1-09-key-level/
2024-03-21 10:08
On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates for the first time in 17 years. BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda vowed to maintain ultra-easy monetary conditions. The dollar was weak after Powell held on to his dovish stance. Today’s USD/JPY outlook is bullish, with the yen weakening in response to BoJ Governor Ueda’s pledge to bolster the economy, meaning the continuation of ultra-easy monetary conditions. Moreover, despite the recent shift in policy, markets expect the BoJ to slow down on further rate hikes. -Are you interested in learning about the Bitcoin price prediction? Click here for details- On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates for the first time in 17 years. This was a monumental shift from years of negative interest rates and a dovish stance. However, investors had already priced in such a move. Consequently, the yen plunged after the policy meeting and has weakened. Furthermore, despite the rate hike on Tuesday, BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda vowed to keep ultra-easy monetary conditions to support the economy. Still, he noted that inflation was rising and the central bank would hike again if necessary. Additionally, markets now see a slower-than-expected BoJ hiking cycle. A more aggressive shift would have supported Japan’s currency. However, the yen has weakened despite recent dollar weakness. This weakness has raised concerns in Japan, with the Finance Minister warning that the government was closely monitoring FX markets. On the other hand, the dollar was weak after Powell held on to his dovish stance. Notably, the Fed held rates at the meeting and projected resilient economic performance in 2024. Moreover, Powell maintained that the central bank will cut three times this year. Initially, the dollar weakened, allowing the yen to recover. However, this was only temporary. USD/JPY key events today US initial jobless claims US flash manufacturing PMI US flash services PMI USD/JPY technical outlook: Buyers emerge after 150.75 retest. On the technical side, USD/JPY is in a strong bullish trend, with the price staying above the 30-SMA. Meanwhile, the RSI has continuously risen since it broke above 50, reaching the overbought region. The price recently broke above a strong resistance level at 150.75 and has pulled back to retest the level. -Are you interested in learning about the forex signals telegram group? Click here for details- At the moment, the price is bouncing higher after retesting the 150.75 key level. Therefore, it might make a higher high. The next strong resistance is at the 1.272 Fib extension and 152.00 key levels. The price could pause or break above this level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/21/usd-jpy-outlook-uedas-support-pledge-weakens-yen/
