2024-03-27 08:32

Australia’s headline inflation figure rose by 3.4% in February. The chances of an RBA rate cut in August have risen to 68%. There is a 71% chance that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in June. Today’s AUD/USD price analysis shows a slight bearish tilt following the release of data showing Australia’s inflation missed forecasts. This revelation has sparked speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia might be inclined to initiate rate cuts as early as August. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- Australia’s headline inflation figure rose by 3.4% in February, holding steady from January. Meanwhile, economists had expected inflation to rise by 3.5%. However, underlying inflation remained high, showing inflation was still persistent. As a result, the Australian dollar fell briefly before recovering. The Reserve Bank of Australia recently assumed a less hawkish stance due to the decline in inflation. Moreover, Australia’s economy has slowed down due to the high-interest rates. As a result, the chances of an RBA rate cut in August have risen to 68%. Still, this would put the RBA among the last major central banks to hike. Therefore, it gives the Australian dollar an edge over its peers. Notably, there is a 71% chance that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in June. This is much earlier than the RBA. However, the dollar has remained strong as data contradicts the rate-cut outlook. Although Powell maintains that the Fed will cut rates three times this year, data on inflation and economic performance suggest otherwise. Consequently, there is a bit of uncertainty regarding the rate-cut outlook. AUD/USD key events today Traders will keep absorbing Australia’s CPI report as there are no more key events scheduled for today. AUD/USD technical price analysis: Price retreats after failed 30-SMA break On the technical side, AUD/USD bounced lower after failing to break above the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI respected the 50 mark as resistance and bounced lower. This is a sign that bears are not ready to give up control. However, bears have also weakened as the price is now making small-bodied candles. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- Moreover, the decline has failed to break below a solid support zone comprising the 0.6520 key level and its bullish channel support. The price bounces higher every time it gets to this zone. Therefore, there is a high chance that bulls will soon retest the 30-SMA with the aim of breaking above and retesting the channel resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/27/aud-usd-price-analysis-australias-inflation-below-expectations/

2024-03-26 12:40

The R1 is seen as the next potential target. The bias is bullish as long as it stays within the ascending pitchfork’s body. The US data could shake the price later today. The EUR/USD price rallied in the short term, briefly moving above the mid-1.0800 level. The pair looks to correct the strong sell-off seen last week. Fundamentally, the US dollar took a hit from the US New Home Sales yesterday. The economic indicator came in at 662K, versus 675K expected and below 664K in the previous reporting period. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- Today, the EUR received a helping hand from the German Gfk Consumer Climate, which jumped from -28.8 points to -27.4 points. Later, the US economic data should be decisive in the short term. Durable Goods Orders may announce a 1.2% growth after a 6.2% drop in the previous reporting period, while Core Durable Orders should report a 0.4% growth in February after a 0.4% drop in January. The HPI and S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI could report better data in January compared to December. The most important event is the CB Consumer Confidence. The indicator is expected to jump from 106.7 points to 106.9 points, which could be good from the USD. Technically, the EUR/USD pair bounced back after reaching the demand zone above the 1.0800 psychological level. Now, it has passed above the weekly pivot point of 1.0850 and it seems determined to approach new highs. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- I’ve drawn an ascending pitchfork, trying to catch a larger growth. The price tested the lower median line (lml), confirming this as a dynamic support. The price could extend its swing if it stays within the ascending pitchfork’s body. The weekly R1 of 1.0898 and the median line (ml) represent potential targets. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/26/eur-usd-price-recovers-amid-poor-us-new-home-sales-data/

2024-03-26 10:12

The pound recovered on Tuesday as the dollar weakened. BoE policymakers assumed a more dovish stance last week. Investors will remain cautious as they await more data on US inflation. The GBP/USD price analysis shows bullish optimism as the pair stages a recovery fueled by the dollar’s decline. However, beneath the surface, fundamental factors hint at potential downside ahead for the pair. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- After the Bank of England’s dovish policy meeting, the pound recently made new lows. Meanwhile, the dollar pulled back from recent highs as investors took profits after last week’s rally. However, UK and US fundamentals support more declines for the pair. At last week’s meeting, BoE policymakers assumed a more dovish stance, raising bets that the central bank will cut rates in June. This is a significant shift from the previous outlook. Initially, investors had expected the BoE to be among the last central banks to cut interest rates. Moreover, inflation in the UK remained much higher than in other G10 economies. However, with inflation easing, policymakers no longer call for rate hikes. This sets the stage for a weaker pound. On the other hand, US inflation has remained stubborn, leading to caution among Fed policymakers. Consequently, there is less confidence that inflation is consistently declining, leading to uncertainty about the rate-cut outlook. In this case, the dollar should be strengthening. Therefore, the recent pause might be brief before the rally continues. However, investors will remain cautious as they await more data on inflation. On Friday, the US will release the core PCE price index. This report will play a significant role in shaping the outlook for Fed interest rates. GBP/USD key events today US CB Consumer Confidence GBP/USD technical price analysis: Rebound pauses at the 1.2650 barrier On the charts, GBP/USD has recovered to retest the recently broken 1.2650 key level as resistance. However, the bias is still bearish as the price trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI under the pivotal 50 mark. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- The price recently broke below a strong bullish trendline and the 1.2650 key support, confirming a change in direction. Therefore, the downtrend will continue if the 1.2650 level holds firm as resistance. The next target for the decline is at the 1.2550 support level. However, there is a chance the price will break above to retest the trendline before continuing lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/26/gbp-usd-price-analysis-dollar-weakness-briefly-lifts-pound/

2024-03-26 08:44

The Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Fed policymakers emphasized caution as the central bank prepares to cut rates. The data revealed a drop in consumer sentiment in Australia. The AUD/USD outlook points upwards as the dollar steps back from recent peaks as traders take profits. However, the journey hit a minor bump as Australia unveiled disappointing consumer sentiment figures for March. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- The dollar rallied last week as it became clear that major central banks were preparing to cut rates later this year. This came after the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.5%. Notably, the move highlighted the more cautious Fed, leading to a rally in the dollar. On Monday, Fed policymakers emphasized caution as the central bank prepares to cut rates. Some, including Raphael Bostic, even lost confidence that inflation would soon reach the 2% target. Furthermore, the currency is subdued ahead of a slow, short week. Investors are now expecting the core PCE price index figures to provide a better look at the state of inflation. If the figures beat forecasts, it could lead to another rally in the dollar, as it would increase doubts about a Fed rate cut in June. Meanwhile, in Australia, data revealed a drop in consumer sentiment due to economic worries. This decline followed the RBA meeting, in which the central bank became more neutral. However, the report shows that consumers have little expectation for rate cuts in the country. This led to a brief decline in AUD/USD before the pair recovered due to the weaker dollar. AUD/USD key events today US CB Consumer Confidence AUD/USD technical outlook: Weak bulls challenge 30-SMA resistance On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is climbing after retesting a support zone comprising the 0.6520 support level and its channel support line. Notably, the price has been trading in a bullish channel, bouncing higher every time it retests the support. At the moment, bulls have taken charge. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- However, price action shows weak momentum, as seen in the small-bodied candles. At the same time, the price is facing the 30-SMA resistance, which might pose a challenge. If the SMA holds firm, the price might break out of its channel to retest the 0.6450 support level. On the other hand, if bulls push above the SMA, the price will likely make a new high above the 0.6625 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/26/aud-usd-outlook-dollar-retreats-amid-profit-taking/

2024-03-25 12:31

The bias remains bullish despite the current sell-off. Taking out the downtrend line activates a new bullish movement. The US data could bring some action tomorrow. The gold price is trading in the green at $2,171 at the time of writing. The precious looks stubborn enough to post a fresh top above $2,200. In the short term, gold has retreated a little after hitting a new all-time high of 2,222. The XAU/USD also dropped as the greenback saw a whopping comeback on Friday. The yellow metal turned to the downside after the FOMC Press Conference. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- However, the bias remains bullish in the medium to long term despite the current jitters. Today, the US New Home Sales could jump from 661K to 675K. This scenario should lift the greenback. Poor US data could send the price of gold higher. Tomorrow, the US data could really shake the markets. The CB Consumer Confidence is expected to jump from 106.7 to 106.9. Durable Goods Orders may announce a 1.2% growth, while Core Durable Goods Orders could report a 0.4% growth. In addition, the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, HPI, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index data should be released as well. Positive US figures should help the greenback. As you can see on the hourly chart, the XAU/USD extended its growth after escaping from the falling wedge pattern. Now, the metal has dropped slightly, forming a flag formation, which is a bullish continuation pattern. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- The price challenges the downtrend line, which stands as a dynamic resistance. Taking out this obstacle may confirm that the retreat ended and that the price could come back higher. On the contrary, a false breakout through this dynamic obstacle indicates a deeper drop towards the $2,146-49 support zone. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/25/gold-price-correction-forms-a-bullish-flag-eying-2200/

2024-03-25 09:54

Canada’s retail sales fell 0.3% in January from December. Data on Tuesday showed a drop in inflation in Canada. The US economy remains resilient, and inflation is high. The USD/CAD outlook leans bullish, with the pair maintaining proximity to last week’s highs. Notably, the Canadian dollar stumbled amidst disappointing economic data, contrasting with the dollar’s resilience, fueled by upbeat reports. -Are you interested in learning about the best AI trading forex brokers? Click here for details- Data on Friday revealed a decline in Canada’s retail sales, indicating poorer consumer spending. Retail sales fell 0.3% in January from December. A slowdown in the economy will likely put pressure on the Bank of Canada to cut rates. Data on Tuesday showed a drop in inflation in Canada, pushing chances of a June cut above 70%. Major central banks are slowly becoming more dovish as inflation eases and economies start to buckle under the pressure of high borrowing costs. Last week, the Swiss National Bank became the first major central bank to cut interest rates. Moreover, markets expect the European Central Bank and the Bank of England to start cutting rates in June. On the other hand, the US economy remains resilient, and inflation is still a problem. Therefore, although markets expect the first cut in June, there is doubt. Data last week showed continued strength in the US economy. Policymakers might worry about cutting interest rates too soon as it could lead to renewed inflation. Consequently, the dollar ended the week with gains. Still, USD/CAD retreated slightly on Monday as the Canadian dollar strengthened on rising oil prices. Oil rose amid supply worries fueled by geopolitical tensions. USD/CAD key events today There won’t be any major economic releases today from Canada or the US. As a result, volatility might be low. USD/CAD technical outlook: Bulls pause at 1.3600 resistance On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is pulling back after retesting the 1.3600 key resistance level. However, there is no clear direction in the price as it bounces between the 1.3475 support and the 1.3600 resistance levels. Moreover, the price has made several failed attempts to break out of this range area. -Are you interested in learning about the forex indicators? Click here for details- At the moment, bulls are in the lead. However, the price has paused at the range resistance, and bears have resurfaced. Therefore, there is a chance the price will fall back to the range’s support. However, bulls might break above 1.3600 if the 30-SMA holds as support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/03/25/usd-cad-outlook-data-weakens-loonie-strengthens-dollar/