2023-12-18 13:48
XAU/USD retreated after registering only false breakouts through the immediate resistance levels. The lower median line (LML) stands as a major support. The Canadian CPI could change the sentiment tomorrow. The gold price turned to the downside as the US dollar struggled to resume its current swing higher. The metal is trading at $2,022 at the time of writing. It has changed little today, so we must wait for fresh opportunities. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The price dropped even though the US reported mixed economic data on Friday. Flash Services PMI came in better than expected, confirming further expansion. Meanwhile, Flash Manufacturing PMI, Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production, and Empire State Manufacturing Index came in worse than expected. Today, only the US NAHB Housing Market Index and the New Zealand Trade Balance could bring some action. Still, the traders for tomorrow’s economic data and high-impact events before taking action. The Australian Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and the BOJ could shake the markets in the morning. The BoJ Policy Rate is expected to remain steady at -0.10%. Furthermore, the Canadian inflation data could change the sentiment in the short term. The Consumer Price Index is expected to report a 0.2% drop after the 0.1% growth in the previous reporting period. Also, the US will release the Building Permits and the Housing Starts data. As you can see on the hourly chart, the price found resistance right above the $2,041 static resistance and beyond the 50% Fibonacci line of the ascending pitchfork. The false breakouts revealed buyers’ exhaustion, and the price turned to the downside, escaping from the range between $2,047 and $2,027. –Are you interested to learn more about forex tools? Check our detailed guide- Now, it has retested the broken range’s support and it could resume its downside movement. The weekly pivot point of $2,013 stands as the immediate downside obstacle. The major support is represented by the lower median line (lml). Technically, the retreat could be temporary after the last rally. It could test the near-term support levels before developing a new leg higher. As long as it stays above the lower median line (LML), the XAU/USD could give birth to a larger leg higher. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/18/gold-price-aiming-for-2000-as-selling-intensifies/
2023-12-18 10:10
Fed’s Williams challenged the market consensus for rate cuts. Britain’s services sector experienced increased growth this month. On Thursday, the Bank of England affirmed its stance on keeping interest rates high. The GBP/USD outlook takes a subtly bearish turn on Monday. The pair is retracing its steps from recent peaks due to comments by Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams. On Friday, Williams challenged the market consensus for rate cuts, emphasizing that the Fed wasn’t currently deliberating on them and deeming speculation premature. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- However, there is still bullish support for the currency. Notably, data on Friday revealed that Britain’s services sector experienced increased growth this month. The PMI showed that the business activity gauge climbed to 52.7 from 50.9 in the services sector, marking its highest reading since June. This is only the second time since July that the index exceeded the 50.0 growth threshold. Therefore, the economy, for the time being at least, can steer clear of a recession. Moreover, this came a day after the Bank of England affirmed its stance on keeping interest rates high. On Thursday, the Bank of England kept borrowing costs unchanged, emphasizing the need to keep rates elevated to mitigate risks from persistently high inflation. However, financial markets are pricing in rate cuts for the coming year. Economists pointed out that the data supported the Bank of England’s decision not to discuss reducing borrowing costs. GBP/USD key events today The currency might end up moving sideways today as no key events are coming from the UK or the US today. GBP/USD technical outlook: Price takes a step back from recent highs The price is pulling back on the charts after making new highs above the 1.2700 key level. Initially, the bullish trend paused around the 1.2700 key level, allowing bears to reverse the trend. –Are you interested to learn more about forex tools? Check our detailed guide- Although the price traded below the 30-SMA, the move was shallow, meaning bears were not much stronger than bulls. Moreover, the RSI never got oversold. The weak downtrend stopped at the 1.2501 key support level, where bulls took charge with a bullish engulfing candle that broke above the 30-SMA. The Bulls have made a strong move that has extended to the 1.272 key fib level. Moreover, this level has acted as strong resistance, leading to a pullback. However, the uptrend will likely soon resume, given the strong bullish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/18/gbp-usd-outlook-williams-challenges-fed-rate-cut-expectations/
2023-12-18 08:56
Investors now await Tuesday’s BoJ decision to clarify the bank’s rate outlook. The dollar fell amid signs of potential Fed rate cuts next year. There has been uncertainty about when the BoJ might phase out its negative interest rate policy. Monday’s USD/JPY forecast hinted at a bearish trend, fueled by the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) two-day monetary policy meeting beginning. Traders eagerly anticipated the central bank’s decision, speculating on the potential unwinding of its ultra-loose policy settings. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, the currency extended weakness from the previous week following signals of potential interest rate cuts next year in the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting. Consequently, the yen gained nearly 2% last week as the dollar fell. Furthermore, the Japanese currency experienced volatility in recent weeks amid uncertainty about when the BoJ might phase out its negative interest rate policy. Notably, Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments triggered a significant yen rally earlier this month. However, it was later reversed after news suggested a policy shift might not happen as early as December. Investors now await Tuesday’s BoJ decision to clarify the bank’s rate outlook. The pair had gained support due to aggressive rate hikes from the Fed and expectations of sustained higher rates in 2022 and 2023. However, recent Fed comments saw the dollar index record a substantial 1.3% decline last week. Franck Dixmier, a global chief investment officer for fixed income at Allianz Global Investors, commented, “The Fed has officially opened the door to the next cycle of rate cuts.” USD/JPY key events today Investors will await the result of the BoJ policy meeting as no high-impact events are scheduled for today. USD/JPY technical forecast: 142.02 support holds firm, decline takes a breather On the technical side, the USD/JPY’s decline has paused near the 142.02 key support level. However, the bearish bias remains strong as the price sits far below the 30-SMA, and the RSI is below the 50 mark. The recent decline started at the 146.03 key level, where the price respected the 30-SMA resistance. –Are you interested to learn more about forex tools? Check our detailed guide- However, bears show some vulnerability as the RSI has made a bullish divergence. Therefore, it shows bearish momentum has weakened, and this might allow bulls to trigger a pullback or reversal. The downtrend might continue without a pullback if bears regain strength. However, in case of a pullback, the price will likely pause at the 30-SMA before the downtrend continues. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/18/usd-jpy-forecast-traders-on-edge-as-bojs-policy-shift/
2023-12-16 09:39
Inflation reports from the US showed further easing, supporting a Fed pivot. Policymakers were dovish at the Fed meeting on Wednesday, signaling an end to rate hikes. The BOE held its hawkish tone, stating that inflation was still concerning. The GBP/USD weekly forecast shows a bullish trajectory. The narrative unfolds with the Bank of England holding steadfast to its hawkish stance, which contrasts the Federal Reserve’s more dovish outlook. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of GBP/USD GBP/USD had a bullish week amid a divergence in policy outlooks between the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Major catalysts for last week’s move included US and UK policy meetings and US inflation reports. Notably, inflation reports from the US showed further easing, supporting a Fed pivot. As a result, policymakers were dovish at the Fed meeting on Wednesday, signaling an end to rate hikes. Meanwhile, the BOE held its hawkish tone, stating that inflation was still concerning, leading to a rally in the pair. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD GBP/USD traders will focus next week on the UK inflation report. On Thursday, the Bank of England was hawkish. Moreover, Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized that the battle against inflation is ongoing. Therefore, the inflation report will impact the outlook for rate cuts in the UK. Additionally, the UK will release retail sales data showing whether consumers are spending big or not. Consequently, this will also show the state of demand and inflation in the economy. Meanwhile, economic data from the US will include the gross domestic product and core durable goods orders. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls aim for 1.3001 resistance level On the daily chart, GBP/USD trades in a bullish channel, respecting the channel support and resistance. At the same time, the price is making higher highs and lows, further confirming a bullish trend. The most recent high came near the 1.2700 key level, while the most recent low was near the 1.2501 key level. However, the uptrend exceeded the recent high when bulls broke above 1.2700. Therefore, the bullish trend will likely continue. –Are you interested to learn more about forex tools? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, indicators on the chart show further upside potential. The 22-SMA has acted as support, pushing the price higher every time it pulls back. Meanwhile, the RSI trades above 50, indicating stronger momentum for bulls. Therefore, there is a high chance the price will continue higher next week as bulls target the 1.3001 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/16/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-hawkish-boe-gathering-traction/
2023-12-16 09:33
Inflation data from the US supported investor expectations of looming rate cuts. Powell said that the rate hike cycle was likely at an end. Economists do not foresee any changes at the upcoming BOJ meeting. In the USD/JPY weekly forecast, the winds of change are steering towards a bearish outlook. This trend comes as the Federal Reserve’s policy takes a dovish turn while the BoJ’s outlook takes a slightly hawkish twist. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of USD/JPY USD/JPY ended the week in the red as the dollar weakened after the FOMC meeting. Moreover, inflation data from the US supported investor expectations of looming rate cuts. At the FOMC meeting, Powell said that the rate hike cycle was likely at an end. This opens the door for rate cuts in 2024. Additionally, investors were speculating on ending negative interest rates in Japan. This helped the yen gain on the dollar. However, changes are not expected at next week’s BoJ policy meeting. Next week’s key events for USD/JPY The BOJ will meet next week, and investors do not expect any policy changes. More than 20% of economists in a Reuters poll anticipate the Bank of Japan will start scaling back its ultra-loose monetary measures in January. However, none of the economists in the poll foresee any changes at the upcoming meeting. Moreover, the durable goods orders and the gross domestic product from the US will show the state of the economy. As such, these reports will impact Fed rate cut bets. USD/JPY weekly technical forecast: Bears unravel the recent bullish rally USD/JPY has retraced most of the recent bullish move after bears took over by breaking below the 22-SMA. The bearish sentiment shift occurred after bullish momentum weakened with a bearish RSI divergence. Therefore, the bears were finally strong enough to breach the 22-SMA resistance. At the same time, the RSI crossed below 50. Now that bears are in control, the price is breaking below support levels while keeping below the 22-SMA. –Are you interested to learn more about forex tools? Check our detailed guide- The most recent support breach was at the 146.03 level. The price broke and retested this level, which is now challenging new support at 142.02. If bears can close below this support, the price will decline to 138.04. However, the price might consolidate if the level holds as the 22-SMA catches up. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/16/usd-jpy-weekly-forecast-fed-boj-divergence-leads-sellers/
2023-12-15 12:44
The gold price bias remains bullish in the short term as the US dollar is bearish. Taking out the pivot point activates further growth. The US economic data should bring sharp movements. The gold price seems undecided in the short term. The precious metal is trading at $2,041, below yesterday’s high of $2,047. The upside pressure remains high as the US dollar maintains a bearish bias. The XAU/USD stays higher even though the US Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, and Unemployment Claims came in better than expected in the last session. As you already know, the yellow metal rallied as the markets expect the Federal Reserve to deliver a 75-bps rate cut next year. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- Today, the Chinese, Eurozone, and UK data came in mixed. The traders are waiting for the US data before taking action. The Flash Services PMI could be reported at 50.7 versus 50.8 in the previous reporting period, while the Flash Manufacturing PMI could jump from 49.4 points to 49.5 points. Furthermore, the Empire State Manufacturing Index is expected at 2.0 points, the Capacity Utilization Rate could jump to 79.1% to 78.9%, while Industrial Production could report a 0.3% growth after the 0.6% drop in the previous reporting period. From the technical point of view, the price continues to challenge the static resistance of $2,041. The minor sideways movement could represent an upside continuation pattern. The price tried to attract more buyers before extending its gains. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- The weekly pivot point of $2,049 represents a static resistance as well. It remains to see how it reacts around these upside obstacles. False breakouts followed by a new lower low may announce a potential sell-off. On the contrary, taking out the pivot point may announce further growth. The median line (ml) represents a major upside target. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/15/gold-price-unchanged-below-recent-top-ahead-of-us-pmis/
