2023-12-11 10:10
In November, US employers expanded their payrolls by 199,000 workers. There was an improvement in the US consumer sentiment for December. The US central bank will probably maintain rates within the existing 5.25%-5.50% range. Entering the week, the EUR/USD outlook was bearish, with the euro lingering near the more than three-week low of $1.07235 set on Friday. Meanwhile, the pair experienced a decline on Friday as the dollar surged, fueled by upbeat employment data. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- In November, US employers expanded their payrolls by 199,000 workers, beating economists’ expectations of 180,000. Moreover, the report revealed an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate to 3.7% from October’s 3.9%. Despite a robust US labor market, traders speculated on Friday that the Federal Reserve could still proceed with a series of interest-rate cuts next year. However, the first reduction could come later than expected, in May. Before Friday’s jobs report, there was a 60% probability rate cuts would start in March. However, the data reduced that to just under 50%, with the first cut now more likely to occur in May. Meanwhile, another report on Friday indicated a more significant-than-anticipated improvement in US consumer sentiment for December. Attention now shifts to US inflation data scheduled for Tuesday, with expectations of a continued easing of consumer prices annually. The Fed will announce its policy decision on Wednesday following a two-day meeting. Notably, the US central bank will probably maintain rates within the existing 5.25%-5.50% range. EUR/USD key events today Traders do not expect big events today from the Eurozone or the US. As a result, the pair might consolidate ahead of the US inflation report. EUR/USD technical outlook: Downtrend pauses at the 1.618 fib extension level On the charts, Euro bulls have returned after bears got rejected below the 1.0750 key support level. However, the bearish bias remains strong as the price trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI under 50. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Nevertheless, bulls might soon get stronger. The RSI shows a bullish divergence, a sign that bears have weakened at the 1.0750 key level. Moreover, the price has extended to the 1.618 fib level from the previous swing. This big extension might lead to a deep pullback or reversal. The downtrend will only continue if the 30-SMA resistance holds firm. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/11/eur-usd-outlook-euro-hovers-near-three-week-low/
2023-12-11 08:15
Data revealed an acceleration in US job growth in November. There was a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. There is speculation that the Bank of Japan might be nearing the end of its ultra-low interest rates policy. An optimistic USD/JPY forecast set the tone for a bullish journey, fueled by the dollar’s promising start to the week. All eyes were fixed on the US inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s year-end policy meeting. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- The dollar strengthened on Friday after data revealed an acceleration in US job growth in November and a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.7%. Consequently, the report challenged expectations of looming Fed rate cuts in the early months of next year. Moreover, the dollar rebounded against the yen, surpassing 145 yen, reversing some of its significant decline against the Japanese currency from last week. Last week, there was speculation that the Bank of Japan might be nearing the end of its ultra-low interest rates policy. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated Thursday that the central bank would closely assess domestic demand strength and next year’s wage outlook when determining monetary policy. The meeting between Ueda and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was a routine exchange held quarterly. However, it came amid rising market expectations that the BOJ would soon exit years of ultra-low interest rates. Furthermore, on Wednesday, Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino remarked on the potential economic impact of an exit from ultra-loose monetary policy. Inflation has consistently exceeded the BOJ’s 2% target for over a year. As a result, many market participants anticipate the gradual phasing out of the massive stimulus next year. USD/JPY key events today No high-impact events are coming from the US or Japan today. Therefore, traders will keep digesting the NFP report. USD/JPY technical forecast: Strong resistance zone threatens recovery The bias for USD/JPY on the charts is bearish. However, there has been a big recovery from last week’s collapse. The price fell and touched the 142.02 support before rebounding. Moreover, buyers have retraced more than 50% of the recent collapse, and the price is approaching the 30-SMA resistance. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- Additionally, there is resistance from the 146.50 key level, the 0.786 fib retracement level, and the decline’s resistance trendline. All these levels form a strong resistance zone that will likely stop the bullish move. Therefore, the downtrend will resume if bears return to this resistance zone. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/11/usd-jpy-forecast-dollar-recovers-ahead-of-inflation-fed/
2023-12-09 19:07
The Canadian dollar weakened after the Bank of Canada held rates steady at 5%. Oil fell for a seventh week due to concerns about oversupply. The US economy reported 199,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.7%. There is bullish optimism in the USD/CAD weekly forecast amid a stronger dollar. The bigger-than-expected US employment growth points to a still-tight labor market, supporting the dollar. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of USD/CAD USD/CAD closed the week higher amid key events in Canada and the US. The Canadian dollar weakened after the Bank of Canada held rates steady at 5%. Still, the bank stated the possibility of another rate hike as inflation remains a concern. Furthermore, weakness came amid a drop in oil prices. Oil fell for a seventh week due to concerns about oversupply. Meanwhile, the dollar ended the week on the front foot after employment data came in stronger than expected. The US economy reported 199,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.7%. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week is packed with high-impact events from the US, including the Fed meeting and inflation and retail sales data. Consumer and producer inflation data will come out before the Fed meeting. Therefore, these reports will determine whether the Fed is hawkish or dovish at the meeting. A drop in inflation will suggest a dovish Fed and increase bets for rate cuts. Meanwhile, the Fed will likely maintain steady rates on Wednesday. Additionally, the Fed will unveil its economic projections summary, revealing officials’ rate expectations for the next year. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: 1.3502 level temporarily halts decline After trading in a bullish trend for some time, the price has broken below its support trendline, signaling a reversal. At the same time, the RSI fell well below the pivotal 50 level, suggesting a shift in sentiment. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- The decline paused at the 1.3502 support level for a short rebound. However, the bearish bias is strong, meaning the recovery is only temporary. Bears are likely waiting at the nearest resistance level to resume the downtrend. If the price continues climbing next week, it will likely pause at the 22-SMA resistance. However, there is also a chance the price will climb higher to retest the recently broken trendline. Still, when bears return, the price will fall to retest the 1.3502 and the 1.3402 support levels. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/09/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-dollar-thrives-on-surprising-nfp/
2023-12-09 19:03
The dollar got a boost from an upbeat employment report. Australia’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged on Tuesday. Investors are eagerly awaiting the FOMC policy meeting. There is a touch of bearish sentiment in the AUD/USD weekly forecast as the dollar recovers after an upbeat employment report. This recovery could spill into next week. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of AUD/USD AUD/USD had a bearish week as the Australian dollar was vulnerable after the RBA meeting. Meanwhile, the dollar got a boost from an upbeat employment report. As anticipated, Australia’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged on Tuesday. This decision gives the bank additional time to evaluate the economy’s condition and determine whether to implement further tightening next year. Meanwhile, in the US, employment data earlier in the week pointed to a weakening labor market. However, the all-important NFP report showed that job growth increased while unemployment fell. Therefore, there is still strength in the labor market, which boosted the dollar on Friday. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, the US will release key inflation and retail sales reports. Additionally, investors are eagerly awaiting the FOMC policy meeting. Meanwhile, Australia will release employment data. The US consumer and producer price index reports will show the state of price growth for consumers and at the wholesale level. These will have a huge impact on the Fed policy meeting. Notably, recent data has supported the view that the Fed is done with rate hikes. Therefore, a drop in inflation could increase rate-cut bets. At the FOMC meeting, market participants expect the Fed to hold rates at the current level. However, they will focus on the statement after the meeting for clues on what the Fed will do in the future. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bulls face resistance at the 0.618 fib On the technical side, AUD/USD is in a bullish trend. The price closed above the 22-SMA, and the RSI is above 50. Moreover, the price has respected the 22-SMA as support, making a strong bullish candle from the level. Consequently, the price has made a higher high and low, showing a bullish trend. –Are you interested to learn more about day trading brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the price is also retracing the most recent downtrend. It has reached the 0.618 key fib level that could reverse the current move. Furthermore, resistance at the 0.6702 key level could also stop the bullish move. The bullish trend could continue next week. However, the strong resistance zone might reverse the move. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/09/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-employment-boost-sparks-dollar/
2023-12-08 12:13
Despite temporary rebounds, the EUR/USD pair maintains a bearish bias in the short term. A new lower low activates more declines. The US NFP, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings should move the rate. The EUR/USD price slipped lower after reaching yesterday’s high of 1.0817. The pair is trading at 1.0785 at the time of writing. The short-term bias remains bearish. Hence, more declines are still in the cards. The US dollar dropped significantly, which provided room for Euro buyers. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Yesterday, the US and the Eurozone reported mixed data. The US Unemployment Claims came in at 220K in the last week versus 221K expected but above 219K in the former reporting period. At the same time, the Eurozone Revised GDP reported a 0.1% drop as expected but German Industrial Production fell by 0.4% even if the traders expected a 0.1% growth. Today, the German Final CPI reported a 0.4% drop, matching expectations. Later, the US economic figures should move the markets. The Non-Farm Payrolls is expected at 184K in the last month versus 150K in the previous reporting period. Average Hourly Earnings may announce a 0.3% growth, after a 0.2% growth in October, while the Unemployment Rate could remain steady at 3.9%. Furthermore, the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment could jump from 61.3 points to 62.0 points. From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD price found support on the descending pitchfork’s lower median line (lml). The pair has bounced back but it has failed to stay above the weekly S1 of 1.0800 psychological level. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Now, it challenges the demand zone from above the 1.0755 former low. The downside pressure remains high despite temporary rebounds. Staying near the former low and right above the lower median line (lml), the price action may announce an imminent breakdown and a downside continuation. Only staying above 1.0760 and coming back above 1.08 may announce a larger rebound. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/08/eur-usd-price-in-demand-zone-all-eyes-on-us-nfp/
2023-12-08 09:54
Investors believe the BoE’s first rate cut may not occur until June. The upcoming BoE meeting next week will likely result in no change for UK rates. There was a moderate increase in Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits. In Friday’s GBP/USD price analysis, a bearish tone prevails as the pound succumbs to a stronger dollar ahead of a pivotal US employment report. Investors keenly anticipate the release of the US non-farm payrolls, eagerly seeking insights that could illuminate the Fed’s next policy decisions. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- A Reuters poll estimates that the US unemployment rate remained 3.9% in November. On the other hand, the non-farm payrolls might rise to 180,000 from 150,000 in October. Meanwhile, investor confidence in early rate cuts by major central banks is growing. However, futures markets indicate investors believe the BoE’s first rate cut may not occur until June. At the same time, there are expectations for March cuts by the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve. This belief has contributed to limited profit-taking on the pound’s November rally. The upcoming BoE meeting next week will likely result in no change for UK rates. However, market attention will be on the post-meeting statement. Elsewhere, recent data in the US revealed a moderate increase in Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits. Consequently, it indicates a gradual loss of momentum in the labor market due to higher borrowing costs. GBP/USD key events today US average hourly earnings US non-farm employment change US unemployment rate US consumer sentiment GBP/USD technical price analysis: Price nears a resilient support zone Pound bears are finding their footing below the 30-SMA as the new bearish trend slowly takes shape. GBP/USD has been in a strong uptrend that paused at the 1.2731 key level. At this point, bears took over when they pushed the price below the 30-SMA. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Now, the price is making lower lows and highs, indicating that bears are in the lead. However, they will still face strong support levels that could stop the downtrend. The price is approaching a strong support zone comprising the 0.382 fib retracement and 1.2501 key support levels. A break below this zone would allow the price to retest the 1.2401 key level. However, bulls might resume the previous uptrend if the zone holds firm. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/08/gbp-usd-price-analysis-dollar-gains-before-critical-us-nfp-data/
