2023-12-06 09:02
Data revealed minimal growth in Australia’s economy in the third quarter. The RBA might not need to implement further hikes. In the US, data indicated a more than 2-1/2-year low in US job openings in October. In Wednesday’s AUD/USD price analysis, the Aussie showcased resilience despite data revealing minimal growth in Australia’s economy in the third quarter. This sluggish growth marked the eighth consecutive quarter of expansion but the slowest in a year. Notably, real GDP rose by 0.2% from July to September. This figure reinforced the argument that the Reserve Bank of Australia might not need to continue tightening its policy. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the annual GDP growth remained at 2.1%, showing little change from the previous quarter. Moreover, the decline is viewed as a deliberate outcome of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary tightening efforts to bring inflation back within its 2-3% target range. In October, inflation was recorded at 4.9%. As a result, the Reserve Bank of Australia decided on Tuesday to maintain the current stance. The bank plans to assess the impact of the substantial 425 basis points increase in interest rates since May last year. As such, market sentiment now leans towards the belief that the RBA might not need to implement further hikes, especially considering recent dovish shifts from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Meanwhile, in the US, data indicated a more than 2-1/2-year low in US job openings in October. It is a strong indication that higher interest rates are dampening demand for workers. Additionally, the data revealed 1.34 job vacancies for every unemployed person in October, marking the lowest since August 2021. AUD/USD key events today The US ADP non-farm employment change AUD/USD technical price analysis: Rebound finds strong resistance at 0.6600 The bias for AUD/USD on the technical side is bearish because the price has made a lower low below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI is in bearish territory below 50, supporting bearish momentum. However, bears found strong support at the 0.382 fib retracement level. This saw the price pull back to retest the recently breached 0.6600 key level. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Still, bulls will not take control until the price exceeds the 30-SMA. Therefore, there is a high chance the price will make a lower high and bounce lower. The next target for the downtrend is at the 0.5 fib level, near the 0.6500 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/06/aud-usd-price-analysis-aussie-gains-despite-economic-hurdles/
2023-12-05 11:30
The RBA kept interest rates unchanged. Bullock stated that the need for further rate hikes would hinge on incoming data. Analysts attributed the US dollar’s upward movement to a correction following its substantial decline in recent weeks. The AUD/USD price analysis took a bearish turn as the Australian dollar fell, reacting to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) choice to maintain unchanged interest rates. At the same time, a stronger dollar added to the downward pressure. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The RBA maintained rates at 4.35%, in line with expectations, and noted that economic data received since November aligned with forecasts. Additionally, Bullock kept to the tempered tightening bias from the previous month. She stated that the need for further rate hikes would hinge on evolving data and risk assessments. Notably, this marked the RBA’s final opportunity to raise rates before the February meeting. Consequently, there is relief for mortgage holders during the holiday season. Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index, noted that the Australian dollar experienced significant gains in recent weeks. Therefore, it might be undergoing profit-taking and the unwinding of bets on a more hawkish RBA statement. Meanwhile, analysts attributed the US dollar’s upward movement to a correction following its decline in recent weeks. The dollar index fell around 3% in November, its sharpest monthly drop in a year. At the same time, investors are awaiting this week’s US economic indicators, including November’s non-manufacturing ISM figures and the highly anticipated nonfarm payrolls report. These will offer more insight into the future trajectory of interest rates. AUD/USD key events today The ISM services PMI report from the US The US JOLTs job openings report AUD/USD technical price analysis: RSI divergence sparks trend reversal The bearish RSI divergence on the 4-hour chart has led to a trend reversal for AUD/USD. Bears have taken the lead, pushing the price below the 30-SMA and the RSI below 50. Notably, the decline came after the price made a bearish engulfing candle. Moreover, the price has broken below the 0.6600 support level. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Meanwhile, bears are now on the verge of making a lower low, which would further confirm a new trend. If this happens, the price will likely make lower highs and lows as it descends to the next support level. The next strong support for bears is a zone comprising the 0.5 fib retracement and the 0.6500 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/05/aud-usd-price-analysis-aussie-takes-a-hit-in-the-wake-of-rba/
2023-12-05 09:56
XAU/USD remains bearish if it stays below the 50% retracement level. The 61.8% and the median line represent key support levels. The US data could have a big impact today. The gold price registered a 6% drop from the freshly marked all-time highs in the last trading session. The precious metal is trading at $2,033 at the time of writing and is fighting hard to rebound. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The downside pressure remains high as the US dollar could resume its leg higher. Fundamentally, the XAU/USD turned to the upside in the short term also because the US Factory Orders reported a 3.6% drop versus 2.7% drop estimated. Today, the Reserve Bank of Australia left the Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35% as expected. Later, the US is to release high-impact data. The ISM Services PMI is expected to jump from 51.8 points to 52.2 points, while JOLTS Job Openings may drop to 9.31M from 9.55M. In addition, the Final Services PMI and RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism data will also be released. Positive economic figures could boost the greenback, so the XAU/USD could hit new lows. The BOC is expected to keep the Overnight Rate at 5.00% tomorrow. In addition, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the Australian GDP could shake the markets. As you can see on the hourly chart, the price registered a false breakout with a sharp decline through the weekly R2 of 2,124 signaling exhausted buyers. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- It has invalidated the breakout above the warning line (wl1) with a massive drop. The sell-off was paused by the weekly S1 of 2,023. The price came back to retest the 50% (2,040) retracement level but as long as it stays below it, the bias remains bearish. From the technical point of view, the 61.8% (2,014) and the median line (ml) of the ascending pitchfork represent key and critical downside obstacles. Testing these levels and registering false breakdowns may announce a new leg higher. On the contrary, taking out these support levels activates more declines. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/05/gold-price-struggling-to-recover-after-6-dip-from-all-time-high/
2023-12-05 08:52
Core inflation in Tokyo decelerated in November. Market participants anticipate the gradual phasing out of the BOJ’s extensive stimulus. The BOJ will watch next year’s annual wage negotiations and the outlook for service prices. Despite a dip in Tokyo’s inflation, the yen flexed its muscle against the dollar on Tuesday, signaling a persistently bearish USD/JPY outlook. Moreover, the pair stayed close to the three-month low of 146.235 yen recorded in the previous session. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- In November, core inflation in Tokyo decelerated, supporting the central bank’s belief that cost-push pressures in the world’s third-largest economy will gradually diminish. Meanwhile, service prices, closely monitored by the central bank for signs of wage-driven inflation, experienced their quickest rise since 1994. Analysts attribute this surge to a spike in hotel fees amid a surge in tourist numbers. Still, inflation has surpassed the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) 2% target for over a year. Consequently, many market participants anticipate gradually phasing out of the bank’s extensive stimulus in the coming year. Furthermore, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has emphasized maintaining an ultra-loose policy. The BOJ is waiting for demand-driven price increases to replace recent cost-push inflation. Additionally, Ueda believes that next year’s annual wage negotiations and the outlook for service prices, reflecting labor costs, will play an essential role in determining when the BOJ can exit its ultra-easy policy. The BOJ, in contrast to its global counterparts, remains a dovish outlier, persisting with an ultra-loose policy. At the same time, other major central banks have aggressively raised interest rates to ease widespread inflation. USD/JPY key events today The US ISM services PMI The US JOLTs job openings report USD/JPY technical outlook: Growing signs hint at bulls taking the lead On the technical side, the USD/JPY downtrend has paused at the 146.50 support level. Still, the bearish bias remains strong as the price has yet to break above the 30-SMA. Moreover, the RSI is still in bearish territory below 50. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- However, there are growing signs that bulls might soon take charge. First, the RSI has made a bullish divergence with the price, indicating weakness in bearish momentum. Second, the price has extended to the key 1.27 fib level, a strong support. Finally, bulls have shown strength with a large-bodied candle after the 146.50 support level. Nevertheless, the bearish trend will continue if the price fails to exceed the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/05/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-firm-despite-downbeat-tokyo-cpi/
2023-12-04 13:54
The bias is bearish as long as it stays below the median line. Friday’s low stands as a downside target. The lower median line is seen as a major target. The EUR/USD price was trading in red at 1.0865 at the time of writing. The pair seems ready to resume its downtrend. The Euro has rebounded after reaching Friday’s low of 1.0828. However, the bias remains bearish as the US dollar could jump higher. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Fundamentally, the US and Eurozone published mixed data on Friday. The Greenback lost some ground versus its rivals in the short term as the US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in worse than expected. Today, the US is to release the Factory Orders data. The economic indicator is expected to report a 2.7% drop versus the 2.8% growth in the previous reporting period. On the other hand, the German Trade Balance and the Spanish Unemployment Change came in better than expected, while the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence came in worse than predicted. Tomorrow, the US ISM Services PMI and JOLTS Job Openings represent high-impact events and could shake the markets. Positive US data should help Greenback dominate the currency market in the short term. From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD price tumbled and ignored the uptrend line after failing to stabilize above the 1.1 psychological level. It has also dropped below the descending pitchfork’s median line (ml), representing a support. After the impressive sell-off, the rate returned to retest the median line (support turned into resistance). -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The price could resume its leg down as long as it stays below it. Friday’s low of 1.0828 represents a potential downside target. Still, the lower median line (LML) represents the next major downside target. The downside scenario could be invalidated if the rate jumps and stabilizes above the median line (ml). https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/04/eur-usd-price-struggles-as-dollar-attempts-a-recovery/
2023-12-04 11:01
Investors awaited a crucial US employment report later in the week. Data revealed that Canada added more jobs than anticipated last month. Canada’s manufacturing sector contracted in November. On Monday, there was a bullish shift in the USD/CAD outlook. The dollar staged a comeback, although investors digested cautious remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Moreover, they awaited a crucial employment report later in the week that could impact the US interest rate outlook. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar surged to a two-month high against the US dollar on Friday. This move came after positive domestic data that revealed the economy added more jobs than anticipated last month. In November, Canadian employment increased by 24,900 jobs, surpassing economists’ expectations of a 15,000 gain. However, hours worked declined, and the jobless rate increased to 5.8%. This jobs data contributed to the positive sentiment surrounding the Canadian dollar. Notably, the currency had already benefited from the recent broad-based weakness in the US dollar. Additionally, data indicated that Canada’s manufacturing sector contracted in November due to global industrial weakness affecting output and new orders. Simultaneously, the US dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned about further interest rate adjustments. Furthermore, the price of oil, a significant Canadian export, settled 2.5% lower. This decline was due to concerns about the latest round of OPEC+ production cuts in the market. USD/CAD key events today The pair will likely move sideways as there won’t be any key economic reports from Canada or the US. USD/CAD technical outlook: 1.3500 support triggers rebound On the charts, the bias is bearish. However, the price is recovering after respecting the 1.3500 key support level. Bears have been in the lead for long, pushing the price to new lows. At the same time, bulls kept challenging the uptrend at the 30-SMA but failed to push above. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The downtrend has paused at the 1.3500 key level, a new low in the decline. However, the RSI shows weaker momentum at this level, which has allowed bulls to emerge for a rebound. Still, since the bearish bias is strong, bulls might pause at the 30-SMA resistance, where bears will resume the decline. A break below the 1.3500 key level would allow the price to retest the 1.3451 level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/04/usd-cad-outlook-dollar-mounts-a-comeback-post-powell/
