2023-12-01 09:34
US consumer spending moderately increased in October. The US PCE price index in October showed a slower 3% rise from a year ago. The Canadian economy contracted at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the third quarter. Heading into Friday, the USD/CAD outlook is bearish, riding the waves of continued dollar weakness. This bearish move came after Thursday’s data unveiled a weakening trend in US inflation for October. US consumer spending moderately increased in October. Meanwhile, the annual inflation rise was the smallest in over 2 1/2 years. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the eagerly anticipated personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index in October showed a 3% rise from a year ago. It was a slowdown from a three-month streak of 3.4% readings. However, it is still above the Fed’s 2% target. Federal Reserve policymakers indicated on Thursday that the US central bank’s interest rate hikes are likely concluded. Still, they kept the option open for further monetary policy tightening if progress on inflation falters. Market indicators show a 97% likelihood of the Fed maintaining rates in its December meeting. Moreover, there’s a 46% chance of a rate cut in March next year, compared to a 27% chance the previous week. Surprisingly, the Canadian economy shrank at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the third quarter, avoiding a recession. However, the data revealed growth weakening before the upcoming interest-rate decision. The economy sidestepped a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarter-on-quarter contractions. USD/CAD key events today Canada’s employment change Canada’s unemployment rate US ISM manufacturing PMI Fed Chair Powell’s speech USD/CAD technical outlook: RSI reflects weaker bearish momentum Price action and indicators on the 4-hour chart point to a bearish bias for USD/CAD. Notably, the price has made lower highs and lows, indicating a downtrend. Initially, bears paused at the 1.3550 support level, where the price was oversold. It led to a pullback to the 30-SMA, where bulls challenged the downtrend. However, bearish momentum was still strong, as the price made a bearish engulfing candle from the SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Consequently, the price fell and broke below the 1.3550 support. Still, a closer look at the RSI shows weaker bearish momentum. Although bears made a new low, the RSI made a higher low, indicating a divergence. However, bears will only lose control if the price breaks above the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/12/01/usd-cad-outlook-bearish-amid-optimistic-canadian-gdp/
2023-11-30 12:58
The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above the R2. Taking out the static support opens the door for more declines. The US data should have a major impact today. The gold price is trading in the red at $2,036 at the time of writing. The price turned downside as the US dollar found the bottom and bounced off. The US Prelim GDP, Prelim GDP Price Index, and Prelim Wholesale Inventories came in better than expected. The Dollar Index edges higher as the US economy shows robustness. USD’s further appreciation should force the XAU/USD to drop significantly. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Today, the Chinese Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.4 points versus the expected 49.8 points, confirming the contraction. In comparison, the Non-Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.2 points from 50.6 points, even if the traders expected a potential growth of 50.9 points. Australia, Japan, and the Eurozone reported mixed data. Still, the traders changed their focus to the United States data. The Core PCE Price Index may report a 0.2% growth, Unemployment Claims could be reported at 219K in the last week, Chicago PMI is expected at 46.0 points, while Pending Home Sales could announce a 1.9% drop. In addition, Personal Spending and Pending Income data will be released as well. Poor economic data could help the XAU/USD to resume its growth. Technically, the XAU/USD found resistance at the ascending pitchfork’s upper median line (uml). Now, it moves sideways in the short term. However, the bias remains bullish if it stays above the weekly R2 of $2,034. This stands as a static support. Testing it and registering only false breakdowns could announce a new bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- On the contrary, taking out the R2 opens the door for a downward movement towards the R1 (2,018) and down to the median line (ml). https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/30/gold-price-pause-rally-by-mid-2000-after-upbeat-us-gdp/
2023-11-30 10:49
US gross domestic product expanded at a 5.2% annualized rate in the last quarter. There is an increased likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March. German inflation data indicated a slowdown to 2.3% in November. Today’s EUR/USD forecast presents a bearish outlook as the dollar stages a comeback from its three-month lows. This reversal comes on the heels of higher-than-expected growth in the US economy in the third quarter. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- US gross domestic product expanded at a 5.2% annualized rate in the last quarter, exceeding the initially reported 4.9%. Moreover, this marked the fastest expansion since the fourth quarter of 2021. Economists had anticipated a growth revision to 5.0%. Following the GDP data, futures showed an increased likelihood of a rate cut starting in March. There is an almost 50% chance of easing, compared to nearly 35% late on Tuesday. The dollar gained against the euro. However, it is set to record its most significant monthly decline since November 2022. This is due to increasing expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2024. Markets eagerly anticipate Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s response to comments made by Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday. Notably, Waller hinted at a possible rate cut in the coming months. Consequently, there was a slide in US bond yields and the dollar. Meanwhile, the euro declined against the dollar after German inflation data on Wednesday indicated a slowdown to 2.3% year-on-year in November from 3% in October. Similarly, inflation in Spain experienced a sharp deceleration. EUR/USD key events today Eurozone CPI US core PCE price index US pending home sales EUR/USD technical forecast: Resistance at 1.1000 prompts pullback The EUR/USD price turned south, breaking the key support of 1.0950. The pair has closed below the 20-period and 50-period SMAs. The next stop for the sellers lies at 1.0860, which was the previous rejection zone and the 100-period SMA. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Alternatively, if the price retraces back above the today’s top, we will assume the resumption of a downtrend after a corrective downside move. However, the probability of the downside seems higher. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/30/eur-usd-forecast-dollar-recovers-on-robust-us-gdp-growth/
2023-11-30 10:28
The dollar rebounded from a three-month low. Data indicating faster-than-expected growth in the US economy. The BoC revealed skepticism about the benefits of a potential digital currency. As Thursday unfolded, the USD/CAD outlook took on a bullish tone, driven by a dollar rebound from a three-month low. However, the dollar was poised to mark its most substantial monthly decline in a year. Investors increased bets that the Fed would refrain from further rate hikes. Moreover, they awaited a crucial inflation report later in the day. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the dollar fell by 3.7% in November amid growing expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in the first half of 2024. However, the dollar recovered some losses on Wednesday following upbeat data on growth in the US economy. Attention will be paid on Friday when Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak. This will follow remarks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller flagging a possible rate cut in the coming months. However, before that, investors will focus on the critical Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index. US futures markets are currently pricing over 100 basis points of rate cuts next year, starting in May. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada (BoC) revealed on Wednesday that most financial institutions expressed skepticism about the benefits of a potential digital currency. Like many other countries, Canada is exploring a digital version of its currency. This move prevents digital payments from being left solely to the private sector. Notably, the COVID-19 pandemic has reduced the use of cash. As part of this initiative, the BoC consulted civil society groups, focus groups, financial institutions, and the general public to assess support and the viability of a digital Canadian dollar. USD/CAD key events today US core PCE price index report US pending home sales report US unemployment claims Canadian GDP USD/CAD technical outlook: Bulls resurface after the 1.3550 support level The price has recovered on the charts after finding support at the 1.3550 support level. However, the bias remains bearish since the rebound is below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI indicates strong bearish momentum as it trades below 50. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- Bulls are heading for the 30-SMA resistance, which has stopped them many times in the downtrend. Therefore, the price will likely reverse at the SMA, allowing bears to continue the downtrend. Still, there is a chance bulls will break above the SMA and the 1.3650 level to reverse the trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/30/usd-cad-outlook-finding-bottom-at-3-month-lows/
2023-11-29 12:32
The GBP/USD pair maintains a bullish bias as long as it stays above the median line. It could only test and retest the support levels before turning to the upside. The US economic data should move the rate. The GBP/USD price posted a fresh top on Wednesday at 1.2733. However, the pair couldn’t sustain the gains, falling to 1.2682 at the time of writing. The Dollar Index turned to the upside after its strong drop. A meaningful recovery in the greenback may weigh down the sterling. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- The currency pair reached new highs after some dovish remarks from the FOMC members in the last session. The USD ignored the US CB Consumer Confidence, which came in at 102.0 points versus the expected 101.0 points, compared to the revised 99.1 points in the previous reporting period. Today, the United Kingdom M4 Money Supply and Mortgage Approvals came in better than expected, while Net Lending to Individuals matched expectations. Later, the US data should drive the price. The Prelim GDP is expected to report a 5.0% growth compared to the 4.9% growth in the previous reporting period. The Prelim GDP Price Index may announce a 3.5% growth, while the Goods Trade Balance could increase from -86.8B to -86.4 B. Also, the BoE Gov Bailey Speaks could have an impact. Technically, the GBP/USD price found resistance at the weekly R2 of 1.2720, turning to the downside. It could approach the weekly R1 (1.2660), a static support. The median line (ml) represents a dynamic support. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The trend is still bullish as the price is still above the key level. The GBP/USD pair could come back down, trying to accumulate more bullish energy before developing a new bullish momentum. Only dropping and stabilizing below the median line (ml) may result in a significant drop. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/29/gbp-usd-price-stalls-as-buyers-fear-us-prelim-gdp-data/
2023-11-29 06:49
Fed’s Waller suggested the possibility of a rate cut in the coming months. The dollar dropped over 0.5% to 146.675 yen, marking its weakest point in over two months. A key measure of Japan’s inflation trend accelerated to 2.2% in October. The USD/JPY forecast showed a bearish bias entering midweek as the dollar fell to its lowest point over three months. Notably, the decline came after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a historically hawkish and influential figure at the central bank, suggested on Tuesday the possibility of a rate cut in the coming months. Consequently, this fueled market expectations that US interest rates have peaked. As a result, the dollar dropped over 0.5% to 146.675 yen, marking its weakest point in over two months. –Are you interested to learn more about scalping brokers? Check our detailed guide- Kyle Rodda, a senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, noted Waller’s shift from a relatively hawkish stance to a more dovish one. Moreover, the change signaled a potential consensus among board members that rates may have peaked. Therefore, rate cuts could start next year. Notably, current market pricing indicates a 40% chance of the Fed starting monetary policy easing as early as next March. It is up from roughly 22% the previous day. Elsewhere, data on Tuesday revealed a key measure of Japan’s inflation trend accelerating to 2.2% in October, a new record high. It signals broadening price pressure and strengthens the case for the central bank to reduce its monetary stimulus. At the upcoming policy-setting meeting on Dec. 18-19, policymakers will consider this data, among other factors. Notably, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) remains a global dovish outlier, maintaining an ultra-loose policy. Meanwhile, other major central banks have aggressively raised interest rates to combat inflation. USD/JPY key events today US GDP for Q3 USD/JPY technical forecast: Price in freefall following resistance setback On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has collapsed after failing to break above the 149.75 resistance level. Initially, the bulls tried taking control by pushing the price above the 30-SMA. However, bears were waiting to resume the downtrend at the 149.75 level. –Are you interested to learn about forex robots? Check our detailed guide- The bearish bias is strong, with the price far below the 30-SMA and the RSI in the oversold region. Moreover, the price broke below the 147.51 level to make a lower low. Consequently, the downtrend will likely continue, with bears targeting the next support level at 146.50. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2023/11/29/usd-jpy-forecast-dollar-hits-3-month-low-on-dovish-fed/
