2023-11-14 09:40

Australian business conditions stayed stable in October. Consumer confidence in Australia declined following last week’s rate hike. Traders are focused on US inflation figures scheduled for later on Tuesday. A bearish sentiment took hold in the AUD/USD price analysis as the Australian economic data release could not impress the buyers. Australian business conditions stayed stable in October. Meanwhile, consumer confidence declined following last week’s rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- The National Australia Bank (NAB) survey indicated a 1-point business condition index increase to +13 in October. On the other hand, confidence dropped by 2 points to -2. Although the survey revealed a slight drop in cost pressures in October, the levels remained high. Labor cost growth and purchase costs eased to a quarterly rate of 1.8%, while retail price growth maintained a quarterly pace of 1.9%. However, overall price growth decreased to its lowest since mid-2020 at 1.0%. At the same time, traders were focused on US inflation figures scheduled for later on Tuesday. Recent statements from Fed policymakers contradicted market expectations that the Fed had concluded its aggressive rate-hike cycle. NAB’s Catril commented, “Overall, the market is also worn out by all messages coming from central banks. Moreover, the higher-for-longer and wait-and-see mode is keeping volatility low.” Furthermore, Catril highlighted the importance of the upcoming CPI number. “We need to wait for that CPI number tonight, which could be a bit of a shaker. If it’s strong, then obviously it brings in the idea that another rate hike from the Fed is possible.” AUD/USD key events today It will be a volatile day for the pair as the US will release a major economic report: The US CPI report. AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bears set sights on the 0.6300 support. The bias for AUD/USD is bearish as the price descends below the 30-SMA. The change from bullish to bearish came when the price broke below the 30-SMA. Furthermore, it strengthened after bears breached the 0.6400 key level to make new lows. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Looking at the RSI, there is solid bearish momentum as it sits below the 50 level. The price recently pulled back toward the 30-SMA resistance. However, the rebound was weak, and bears seem ready to resume the downtrend. Moving forward, bears will target the 0.6300 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-price-analysis-aussie-slides-after-mixed-data/

2023-11-14 08:35

The yen is hovering near Monday’s one-year low of 151.92. Concerns about potential BOJ intervention could continue to hinder the dollar/yen pair from rising. BOJ policy measures have not significantly sustained a yen rally. As of Tuesday, the USD/JPY outlook signals a bullish trend, fueled by the beaten yen, struggling near a three-decade low against the dollar. This weakness is mainly due to the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) easy monetary policy. This policy clashes with the likelihood of prolonged higher rates elsewhere. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the yen was at 151.70 against the dollar, hovering near Monday’s one-year low of 151.92. Meanwhile, on Monday, the yen briefly rose against the dollar after reaching a year-to-date low. However, analysts attribute this to active trading in options expiring this week rather than any intervention by Japanese authorities. Additionally, options and concerns about potential BOJ intervention could continue to stop the dollar/yen pair from climbing. In September of the previous year, Japanese authorities intervened in the market for the first time since 1998. Consequently, the yen got a boost after its decline due to the BOJ’s decision to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy. Moreover, the BOJ intervened again in October 2022 when the yen hit a 32-year low of 151.94. This year, the BOJ has made gradual steps to phase out its controversial yield curve control (YCC) policy. Moreover, there have been hints of an upcoming end to negative interest rates. However, these measures have not significantly sustained a yen rally. This is especially true as central banks worldwide maintain a hawkish stance with the expectation of enduring higher rates. USD/JPY key events today Investors are eagerly awaiting the US inflation report, which will include the following components, Core CPI (MoM) (Oct) CPI (MoM) (Oct) CPI (YoY) (Oct) USD/JPY technical outlook: Price poised for a potential 30-SMA retest. On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is bullish and trades above the 151.51 key level. Supporting the bullish bias is the fact that the price sits above the 30-SMA and the RSI above 50. However, bears have shown some strength with a strong bearish candle. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The price briefly dipped below 151.51 before pulling back. If bears get stronger, the price might soon retest the 30-SMA support. Still, given the bullish bias, it will likely bounce higher to take out the 152.01 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-clings-to-3-decade-low-against-dollar/

2023-11-13 11:53

The yen hit a fresh one-year low against the dollar ahead of US inflation data. Japan’s wholesale inflation slowed to below 1%. The rise in wholesale inflation prompted many Japanese firms to pass on higher costs to households. As the week kicked off, the USD/JPY outlook strengthened as the yen hit a fresh one-year low against the dollar ahead of US inflation data. Analyst Tony Sycamore from IG suggested that a strong figure from US economic data releases this week could push the dollar/yen pair to the 152 range. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, Monday’s data from Japan indicated that wholesale inflation slowed to below 1%, marking the first time in just over 2-1/2 years. This suggests that the cost pressures contributing to price increases were decreasing. Moreover, the slowdown aligns with the Bank of Japan’s expectations. Now, the question is whether wage increases and household spending will generate a demand-driven boost in consumer prices. Notably, an increase in prices prompted the Japanese central bank to raise its inflation forecasts at the October monetary policy meeting. Meanwhile, markets are eager for signs indicating the bank’s potential exit from its ultra-loose monetary policy. The BOJ has emphasized that the current cost-push inflation will fade. Moreover, it must be replaced by price increases driven more by strong domestic demand. Only then will the bank consider ending ultra-low interest rates. Governor Kazuo Ueda noted progress toward achieving the bank’s 2% target. Therefore, conditions for exiting the ultra-easy policy are gradually falling into place. Meanwhile, there was little response to the announcement that Moody’s had downgraded the outlook for the US credit rating to “negative.” USD/JPY key events today It might be a silent day ahead for USD/JPY as the calendar shows no significant events from the US or Japan. USD/JPY technical outlook: RSI hints at a looming pause in the rally. The USD/JPY price has rallied above the 151.51 key level and is approaching resistance at the 152.01 level. The bullish bias is strong as the price trades well above the 30-SMA. Moreover, the RSI has entered the overbought territory, indicating solid bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, at such an extreme level, the RSI shows it might be time for a pause in the rally. It means that bears might emerge at the 152.01 resistance level. Consequently, there might be a retracement to the 151.51 support or lower to the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-outlook-yen-tumbles-to-1-year-low-against-dollar/

2023-11-13 11:51

The bias is bearish as long as it stays below the upper median line. A new lower low activates more declines. The US CPI should be decisive tomorrow. The current price of gold stands at $1,938 as of the latest update. In the short term, it appears uncertain following a significant recent drop. The minimal change can be attributed to the Dollar Index moving sideways. The overall trend remains bearish, suggesting further declines are likely. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Despite a worse-than-expected US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, which dropped from 63.8 to 60.4, the price of gold has shown resilience. The yellow metal has maintained its downward trend, even in light of the unfavorable sentiment data. Looking ahead, the XAU/USD may continue to trade within a range until the release of US inflation data. Tomorrow’s fundamentals are expected to influence the rate, potentially leading to increased volatility. Notably, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month is anticipated to show a 0.1% growth in October, compared to a 0.4% growth in September. The year-over-year CPI is projected to register a 3.3% growth, a decrease from the 3.7% growth in the previous period. Additionally, Core CPI is expected to announce a 0.3% growth. These upcoming events are considered high-impact, and as a result, the XAU/USD may experience significant and abrupt movements in response to the inflation figures publication. Gold price technical analysis: https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-price-loses-ground-under-1940-as-us-inflation-looms/

2023-11-13 08:33

Traders are eagerly awaiting the US inflation report. After this month’s policy meeting, there has been a moderation in the Fed’s hawkish stance. ECB President Christine Lagarde suggested that inflation could rise in the coming months. In anticipation of the eagerly awaited US inflation data, traders witnessed a boost in the euro, contributing to a cautiously optimistic EUR/USD forecast. This data, expected later this week, is crucial for assessing whether the Federal Reserve needs to take further actions to curb inflationary pressures. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Notably, there has been a moderation in the Fed’s hawkish stance after this month’s policy meeting. Consequently, there is keen interest in whether the battle against inflation is still on. Furthermore, more Fed speakers are set to address the public this week. They might echo Chair Powell in keeping the possibility of further rate hikes open. Even if the CPI shows a softer print, Simpson believes the Fed will continue to dampen hopes for rate cuts, especially while inflation remains above the target. Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde suggested that inflation could rise in the coming months. However, maintaining current interest rates for several quarters could still bring price growth back to 2%. Moreover, Lagarde anticipated a resurgence of higher numbers. The ECB left its deposit rate unchanged at 4% last month and projected inflation reaching the target only in late 2025. Meanwhile, consumer price growth could stay around 3% for most of 2024. Still, Lagarde hinted that another rate hike may not be necessary even if inflation increases. EUR/USD key events today Given the lack of significant economic releases from the US and the Eurozone, the pair will likely consolidate. EUR/USD technical forecast: Bulls test new downtrend at the 30-SMA. The EUR/USD price is facing the 30-SMA resistance. This comes after a shift in sentiment where the price crossed below the SMA and the RSI below 50. The price is currently retesting the SMA as bulls test the strength of the new bearish move. The bearish move will continue if the SMA holds firm as resistance. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Moreover, if the price fails to go above the SMA, it will likely break below the 1.0665 support to make a lower low. However, if bears fail the test and the price returns above the SMA, it will probably climb to the 1.0751 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-forecast-euro-ticks-up-ahead-of-us-inflation/

2023-11-11 18:53

The dollar gained on hawkish comments from Fed policymakers. The Canadian dollar might gain less strength than earlier projections. Money markets predict that the BoC will likely start cutting rates in April. The anticipated return of dollar strength is shaping a bullish USD/CAD weekly forecast, propelled by assertive remarks from Federal Reserve officials. –Are you interested to learn more about MT5 brokers? Check our detailed guide- Ups and downs of USD/CAD USD/CAD had a bullish week, with the dollar gaining on hawkish comments from Fed policymakers. Fed Chair Powell and several other Fed policymakers got a chance to restate their commitment to lowering inflation. All these speeches came out hawkish, boosting the dollar. Meanwhile, according to a Reuters poll, the Canadian dollar will gain less strength than earlier projections in the next year. Moreover, a slowdown in the domestic economy creates an opportunity for interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. Money markets predict that the Canadian Central Bank will likely start reducing its benchmark interest rate in April. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Investors eagerly anticipate US inflation data next week to assess the Fed’s efforts in lowering last year’s record-high inflation. Notably, a drop in prices beyond expectations could support the case for the Fed to start cutting rates. Additionally, a report on US retail sales will offer insights into the country’s current state of consumer spending. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Strong bullish bias points to looming new high. The USD/CAD price is on an uptrend on the daily chart, with the price trading above and respecting the 22-SMA support. Moreover, there is an indication of solid bullish momentum on the RSI, which trades above 50. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Since the bullish trend began, bulls have consistently made higher highs and lows. However, the price broke below the SMA at one point as bears attempted to take control. Bulls later reversed this move, making it a false breakout. Since then, they have pushed the price higher between the 1.3602 support and the 1.3902 resistance. Initially, the 1.3902 resistance stopped the uptrend, driving the price back to the 22-SMA support. However, bulls regained strength near the SMA and are currently heading to retest the 1.3902 resistance. Given the solid bullish bias, the price might make a new high above this level. It would confirm a continuation of the bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-fed-comments-revive-the-dollar/