2023-11-04 18:27
The Federal Reserve maintained its current interest rates on Wednesday. The US reported weaker-than-expected employment figures. Australia’s central bank might increase its key policy rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday. The AUD/USD weekly forecast radiates optimism as traders eagerly await the RBA’s monetary policy meeting scheduled for Tuesday. A looming rate hike is fueling expectations of an upward trajectory in the currency pair. Ups and downs of AUD/USD Aussie ended the week higher amid increased bets of an RBA rate hike next week. Moreover, dollar weakness helped support the Australian dollar. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve maintained its current interest rates. Furthermore, there is a big chance that US rates have peaked as rising Treasury yields might do the rest of the job for the Fed. -Are you looking for forex robots? Check our detailed guide- More dollar weakness came on Friday after the US reported weaker-than-expected employment figures. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose, showing a weakening labor market. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Traders are looking forward to the Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. Notably, a Reuters poll found that Australia’s central bank will likely increase its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% on Tuesday. Last quarter saw inflation exceeding expectations, which took policymakers by surprise. Consequently, financial markets have adjusted their expectations, factoring in one more rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Economists have anticipated a final rate hike this quarter since August. However, the latest Reuters poll marks the first time in several months where there is almost unanimous consensus among participants regarding the rate increase. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Price undergoes significant sentiment shift. On the daily chart, there has been a significant shift in sentiment for AUD/USD as the price has crossed above the 22-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has crossed above 50, a level that has acted as resistance for some time. -Are you looking for the best CFD broker? Check our detailed guide- Notably, the downtrend weakened when the price crossed below the 0.6500 key level. The slope of the downtrend became shallower, and the price stayed close to the 22-SMA. It was a sign that bears had weakened. Finally, the price came to a halt at the 0.6300 support level. It allowed the bulls to take charge by pushing above the SMA. Currently, the price is climbing and challenging the next resistance level at 0.6500. A break above this level would strengthen the bullish bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-markets-brace-for-rba-rate-hike/
2023-11-03 11:03
The US and Canadian data should move the rate today. Its failure to retest the broken uptrend line signaled exhausted buyers. Taking out the minor uptrend line activates more declines. The gold price is trading in the green at $1,989 at the time of writing. The Greenback’s depreciation versus the other major currencies gave a helping hand to the yellow metal. -If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- DXY’s deeper drop helps the XAU/USD buyers to drag it towards new highs. The Greenback remains sluggish after the FOMC. Yesterday, the BOE left its monetary policy unchanged. The USD took a hit from the Unemployment Claims indicator, which came in at 217K the previous week versus the 210K estimated and above 212K in the last week. Today, the US and the Canadian data should bring life to XAU/USD. The US Non-Farm Payrolls are expected to be 178K in October versus 336K in September. Average Hourly Earnings may report a 0.3% growth, the Unemployment Rate could remain at 3.8%, while ISM Services PMI is expected to drop from 53.6 points to 53.0 points. Furthermore, the Canadian Unemployment Rate could jump from 5.5% to 5.6%, while Employment Change is expected at 25.7K, far below 63.8K in September. Better-than-expected data could force the yellow metal to turn to the downside again. As you can see on the hourly chart, the XAU/USD tried to rebound after its strong sell-off. It has failed to come back to test the Rising Wedge’s support (uptrend line), signaling exhausted buyers. In the short term, a bounce back was natural. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- It remains to see how it reacts after reaching the descending pitchfork’s upper median line (uml) and the weekly pivot point of $1,989. These represent strong upside obstacles. Testing and retesting the resistance levels, registering only false breakouts may announce a new sell-off. Taking out the minor uptrend line and making a new lower low activates a deeper drop. After closing above the $1,992 static resistance, an upside continuation could be confirmed. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gold-price-at-resistance-under-2000-ahead-of-the-us-nfp/
2023-11-03 09:11
The pound showed resilience following the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates. The BoE signaled no imminent intention of cutting rates. There are concerns about an impending UK economic recession. On Friday, there was bullish sentiment in the GBP/USD price analysis as the British pound stood firm against the dollar. It showed resilience following the Bank of England’s decision to keep interest rates at a 15-year peak. Still, the central bank signaled no imminent intentions of cutting rates. -If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- Moreover, Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned against complacency and emphasized that inflation remained too high. Bailey stated, “We will closely monitor the need for further interest rate hikes. Nevertheless, it is far too early to consider rate reductions.” Still, investors concluded that the subsequent rate adjustment by the BoE was more likely to be a decrease. There are concerns about an impending UK economic recession and limited growth in the near future. However, the BoE reiterated its commitment to keeping borrowing costs elevated. Notably, the UK economy is already grappling with the impact of interest rate increases from December 2021 to August this year. Meanwhile, British government bond yields significantly dropped as the BoE painted a grim economic outlook. In recent days, the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve also opted to maintain their current interest rates. Governor Bailey acknowledged the potential inflation risk from elevated energy prices due to the Middle East conflict. However, he noted that such an impact had not materialized thus far. GBP/USD key events today It will be a busy day for GBP/USD traders as they will receive several significant economic reports from the US, like: The US monthly nonfarm payrolls report. ISM non-manufacturing PMI. S&P Global Services PMI GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bulls meet strong resistance at 1.2200. The GBP/USD price has halted at the 1.2200 resistance level after a strong surge from the 1.2100 support level. Notably, the pound has stayed in a range between the 1.2100 support and the 1.2200 resistance level. It attempted to break out of this range but was sharply rejected and fell back into consolidation. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- Therefore, although the price is above the 30-SMA, supporting bulls, this might soon change. If the 1.2200 resistance holds firm, the price will likely fall back below the 30-SMA to retest the 1.2100 range support. However, if bulls are stronger, the price will rise to 1.2275 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/gbp-usd-price-analysis-pound-holds-steady-after-boes-pause/
2023-11-03 08:16
Last quarter’s inflation beat expectations, prompting financial markets to anticipate one more rate RBA hike. Major Australian banks anticipate a 25 basis point rate increase from the RBA. There was a resurgence in house prices in Australia. The AUD/USD outlook shines bright as a recent Reuters poll illuminated anticipation of a 25 basis point RBA rate rise to 4.35% this Tuesday. Consequently, the bulls are charging confidently ahead. This move is due to unexpectedly strong inflation. -If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- Notably, last quarter’s inflation surpassed expectations. Consequently, it surprised policymakers and prompted financial markets to anticipate one more rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Furthermore, if this materializes, it will mark the first rate hike under the leadership of Michele Bullock, the governor of the RBA. She has stated that the central bank will raise rates further in the event of a significant upward revision to the inflation outlook. Moreover, major Australian banks anticipate a 25 basis point rate increase from the RBA in the upcoming week. Madeline Dunk, an economist at ANZ, believes that the potential for additional RBA moves is higher. If a hike occurs in November, it is more likely that there will be another rate increase rather than cuts in the near future. Additionally, there was a resurgence of house prices in Australia, approaching previous peaks. It suggests that the RBA’s 400 basis point policy tightening has had a limited impact on the robust property market. However, the expected RBA rate hike contrasts with the wait-and-see approach taken by most of its global counterparts. AUD/USD key events today Investors will keep an eye on key events from the US, including: The nonfarm payrolls report. The US unemployment report. The S&P Global services PMI The ISM non-manufacturing PMI. AUD/USD technical outlook: Market dynamics shift as AUD/USD bulls dominate After moving sideways for a long time, AUD/USD bulls finally took charge. As such, the bias for the pair is now bullish, with the price well above 30-SMA and the RSI above 50. Bulls took control with strong bullish candles that pushed the price above the 0.6400 resistance level. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- However, this new bullish move has paused at the 0.6450 resistance level, where bears have shown some strength. Bears might push for a retest of the 0.6400 level as support. Nevertheless, a bullish bias will remain if the price stays above the 30-SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/aud-usd-outlook-australias-key-policy-rate-set-to-rise/
2023-11-02 10:07
The USD/JPY retreats after the dismal US ADP data. FOMC left rates unchanged with a hint to hike in the next meeting. The technical picture looks gloomy, with more losses towards 150.00 The USD/JPY price slumped on Thursday. The pair stands at 150.41, far below yesterday’s high of 151.68. The profit-taking has triggered a corrective downside. The USD took a hit from the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, which came in at 113K versus 149K expected, while the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped from 49.0 to 46.7 points in the last trading session. -If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- The JOLTS Job Openings came in at 9.55M compared to 9.34M, but it has failed to save the greenback from the downside. Also, the Federal Reserve left the Federal Funds Rate at 5.50% as expected but signaled a potential hike in the upcoming meetings if inflationary pressure remains high. Today, the Japanese Monetary Base reported 9.0% growth compared to the 5.9% growth estimated, while the 10-y Bond auction came in at 0.91|3.6. Later, the Bank of England monetary policy meeting could greatly impact all markets. The Official Bank Rate is expected to remain at 5.25%, but BOE Gov. Bailey Speaks could shake the markets. Furthermore, US Unemployment Claims could be reported at 210K again, while Factory Orders may announce a 2.2% growth compared to the 1.2% in the previous reporting period. Technically, the USD/JPY price turned to the downside after failing to take out the upper median line (UML). Also, its failure to stay above the weekly R2 of 151.35 announced exhausted buyers. It has taken out the inside sliding line (SL), which represented dynamic support, signaling more declines. Now, the price has stabilized under the weekly R1 of 150.47. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- A new lower low activates more declines. The 150.00 psychological level represents a potential target. In addition, the weekly pivot point of 149.89 and the median line (ml) of the descending pitchfork are seen as downside targets. A larger drop could be activated only after taking out these obstacles. https://www.forexcrunch.com/usd-jpy-price-aiming-to-test-150-0-after-dismal-adp/
2023-11-02 09:46
There is growing optimism regarding the potential peak in US interest rates. There is less than a 20% likelihood of a Fed rate increase in December. In October, US manufacturing experienced a sharp contraction. On Thursday, the EUR/USD outlook painted a promising picture with a bullish stance, with the dollar’s weakening as a key factor. There is growing optimism regarding the potential peak in US interest rates. This sentiment followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates unchanged. -If you are interested in automated forex trading, check our detailed guide- Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned the possibility of another rate hike. However, he also stated that the risks of being too aggressive or too cautious were now balanced, with the funds rate target reaching a 22-year high of 5.5%. Consequently, the markets perceive it as a signal to maintain a less than 20% likelihood of a rate increase in December. Meanwhile, ten-year Treasury yields declined by 20 basis points from their highs on Wednesday. IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore noted the shift in sentiment, saying, “Compared to the previous FOMC meeting, the current stance is more balanced and cautious.” Moreover, traders gained confidence that US interest rates might have peaked when data revealed a significant contraction in US manufacturing in October. Notably, US manufacturing experienced a sharp contraction after showing signs of improvement in prior months, with new orders and employment declining. However, US job openings increased in September, indicating ongoing labor market tightness. Elsewhere, European Central Bank policymakers are reviewing the interest rates offered on government cash deposits, considering a potential reduction. This move is aimed at mitigating the mounting losses resulting from their efforts to combat inflation. EUR/USD key events today Investors will receive one key report from the US, The initial jobless claims report. EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls push for a 1.0600 resistance break. The EUR/USD has recovered after finding support at the 1.0525 level. The price still lacks direction as it chops through the 30-SMA. However, on a smaller scale, bulls are in control as the price sits above the SMA and the RSI above 50. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- This bullish move has paused at the 1.0600 key level. Given the recent choppiness, bears might emerge at this level to push the price down to the 1.0525 support. However, if bulls hold, the price will likely break above the 1.0600 resistance level. It would then likely retest the 1.0675 resistance level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/eur-usd-outlook-optimism-swells-as-us-rates-approach-peak/
