2025-01-16 11:10

The UK GDP report showed a smaller-than-expected expansion of 0.1%. British Treasury yields fell after a softer-than-expected UK inflation report. Underlying US inflation was softer than expected in December. The GBP/USD outlook shows increasing pressure on the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs amid weak economic growth. Meanwhile, in the US, a soft inflation report has maintained expectations for at least one Fed rate cut this year. Market participants are now watching the retail sales report for more clues on Fed rate cuts. -Are you looking for tips for forex trading? Check out the details- The UK released its GDP report on Thursday, showing a 0.1% expansion. However, this was smaller than the forecast of 0.2%. This miss shows weaker-than-expected growth that might pressure the Bank of England to cut interest rates. As a result, the pound eased. However, there was still optimism around the recent drop in UK Treasury yields, which has relieved pressure on the country’s finances. Treasury yields fell after a softer-than-expected UK inflation report. On the other hand, the US dollar remained weak after data on Wednesday revealed that underlying US inflation was softer than expected. The core CPI increased by 0.2% compared to estimates of 0.3%. Meanwhile, monthly and annual inflation numbers came in line with expectations, keeping Fed rate cut bets intact. Market focus has now shifted to the upcoming retail sales report, which will show consumer spending in the country. An upbeat report will lower rate-cut bets. Meanwhile, a downbeat report might further weaken the dollar by increasing rate-cut expectations. GBP/USD key events today Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Unemployment Claims GBP/USD technical outlook: Trendline resistance capping gains On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has defined the confines of a new bearish channel. Although GBP/USD has remained in a bearish trend, the slope has shallowed. Initially, the price was trading below the 30-SMA. However, bulls started puncturing the resistance line. Nevertheless, the price continued to make lower highs and lows. Therefore, the downtrend has created a new resistance level slightly above the 30-SMA. -Are you looking for crypto exchanges? Check our detailed guide- Currently, the price is bouncing lower from the channel resistance. It trades below the 30-SMA, showing bears are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI is below 50, suggesting solid bearish momentum. Therefore, it may soon retest the 1.2102 support and likely break below for a new low in the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/16/gbp-usd-outlook-slow-growth-paves-path-for-boes-rate-cut/

2025-01-16 09:56

Australia’s economy added 56,300 jobs in December. Unemployment in Australia edged higher in December. The US released a soft inflation report that weighed on the greenback. The AUD/USD forecast shows steady RBA rate cut bets after a mixed employment report from Australia. Meanwhile, the greenback remained frail after inflation figures came in line with expectations. All eyes are now on the US retail sales report. -Are you looking for tips for forex trading? Check out the details- Data on Thursday revealed that Australia’s economy added 56,300 jobs in December, beating forecasts of 14,500. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate met forecasts at 4.0%. However, it was an increase from the previous month’s 3.9%, showing some cracks in the labor market. The Australian dollar had a muted reaction to this report. Moreover, market participants are still pricing a 68% chance that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates in February. Meanwhile, the US released a soft inflation report that weighed on the greenback. Notably, the monthly CPI increased by 0.4%, meeting estimates. Similarly, the annual figure met forecasts, increasing by 2.9%. However, core inflation came in at 0.2%, missing forecasts of 0.3%. The miss rekindled bets for Fed rate cuts. Moreover, since price pressures aligned with forecasts, the Fed might still implement at least one rate cut this year. This outlook paused the dollar’s recent rally. Markets are now eyeing the retail sales report, which will show the state of consumer spending. AUD/USD key event today US core retail sales m/m US retail sales m/m US unemployment claims AUD/USD technical forecast: Reversal from channel resistance On the technical side, the AUD/USD price trades in a bearish channel with clear support and resistance trendlines. Within this channel, the price trades above the 30-SMA, showing bulls are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI trades above 50, suggesting solid bullish momentum. -Are you looking for crypto exchanges? Check our detailed guide- However, bulls made a swing that paused at the channel resistance. Moreover, bears seem ready to push the price lower. However, before that, the price must break below the 0.6200 support and the 30-SMA. In that case, the price would drop to retest the channel support. On the other hand, if bulls are ready to take charge, they will try to break above the channel resistance. If this happens, it will signal a shift in sentiment to bullish. However, AUD/USD would have to break above the 0.6300 resistance level to confirm a new uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/16/aud-usd-forecast-rba-rate-cut-bets-intact-after-mixed-jobs/

2025-01-15 10:49

UK consumer inflation increased by a smaller-than-expected 2.5% annually. Market participants increased the likelihood of a Feb BoE rate cut from 60% to 80%. Economists expect US consumer inflation to increase by 2.6% annually. The GBP/USD forecast shows a bright day for the pound despite downbeat UK inflation figures. A decline in UK yields has relieved the currency after its recent plunge. On the other hand, the dollar halted its rally after soft wholesale inflation data. Moreover, traders eagerly await the CPI report for more clues on future Fed moves. -Are you looking for tips for forex trading? Check out the details- Data on Wednesday revealed that UK consumer inflation increased by 2.5% annually. This was a smaller number than the forecast of 2.6%. As a result, market participants increased the likelihood of a Feb BoE rate cut from 60% to 80%. The pound dropped in response, but only for a while. The increase in rate-cut bets also led to a drop in UK yields, which have rallied in recent weeks. The rally had caused uncertainty about UK finances and the economy, hurting the pound. Therefore, Wednesday’s pullback came as a welcome surprise, boosting sterling. The pound also got support from a weak dollar. The greenback eased on Tuesday after cooler-than-expected wholesale inflation data. However, all focus is on the upcoming US consumer inflation report. Economists expect inflation to increase by 2.6% annually, holding from the previous month. A surprising number will cause volatility by shifting the outlook for Fed rate cuts. GBP/USD key events today US core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y GBP/USD technical forecast: Pullback pauses as 30-SMA poses a challenge On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has rebounded to retest the 30-SMA resistance after making a new low at the 1.2102 support level. At the same time, the price has revisited the 1.2250 resistance level. However, the downtrend remains intact as the price trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI in bearish territory. -Are you looking for crypto exchanges? Check our detailed guide- The rebound has been a corrective move, with both bears and bulls showing some strength. However, the price must make an impulsive leg for the price to start trending. Therefore, if bears are ready to resume the downtrend, the price will make a new swing low below the 1.2102 support level. On the other hand, an impulsive leg to break above the 30-SMA would signal a shift in sentiment that would likely lead to a bullish reversal. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/15/gbp-usd-forecast-sterling-rises-despite-weaker-uk-cpi/

2025-01-15 09:22

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a likely rate hike. The US PPI increased by 0.2%, well below estimates of a 0.4% increase. Traders are focused on Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report. The USD/JPY price analysis shows rising bets for a Bank of Japan rate hike next week, supporting the yen across the board. Meanwhile, the dollar remained weak after data in the previous session revealed softer-than-expected wholesale inflation. At the same time, the greenback paused its rally amid caution ahead of the crucial consumer inflation report. -Are you looking for tips for forex trading? Check out the details- On Wednesday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank would hike rates if Japan’s economy continued improving. His remarks aligned with his deputy’s, reinforcing bets for a near-term rate hike. Market participants are currently pricing a 70% chance of such a move during next week’s meeting. Meanwhile, the greenback paused its rally after data on Tuesday revealed softer wholesale inflation in December. The PPI increased by 0.2%, well below estimates of a 0.4% increase. Meanwhile, core inflation did not change during the month. Economists had forecasted a 0.2% increase. The downbeat figures increased Fed rate cut expectations, hurting the dollar. However, traders are more focused on Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report. Another downbeat report will increase rate cut bets. On the other hand, an unexpected jump in inflation would lead to a rally in Treasury yields and the dollar. USD/JPY key events today US core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y USD/JPY technical price analysis: Price action suggests looming sentiment shift On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is bouncing lower after finding resistance at the 158.02 key level. It trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI in bearish territory, indicating a bearish bias. -Are you looking for crypto exchanges? Check our detailed guide- Bulls are showing weaker momentum after many attempts to make a new high and detach from the SMA. The RSI has made a bearish divergence, and price action shows larger bearish candles. Meanwhile, bullish candles are getting smaller. This is a sign that bears might be ready to take charge. The price has been trading in a shallow, bullish channel. Therefore, a break below the channel support would show a bearish shift in sentiment. Moreover, the price must break below the 156.03 support to start making lower highs and lows, confirming a downtrend. In this case, USD/JPY would revisit the 154.01 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/15/usd-jpy-price-analysis-yen-climbs-on-boj-tightening-odds/

2025-01-14 11:34

Risk appetite increased after China announced more stimulus measures. All eyes are now on US inflation figures. The pound remained fragile due to the recent bond market rout. The GBP/USD price analysis shows some relief for the pound as market participants await crucial US inflation data. Nevertheless, the long-term outlook remains clouded as traders worry about UK finances amid turmoil in the bond market. -Are you looking for tips for forex trading? Check out the details- The dollar eased slightly at the start of a new week. Risk appetite increased after China announced more measures to support its weak economy and the yuan. However, dollar bulls remain strong after the recent upbeat jobs report. Market participants expect the Fed to lower borrowing costs by 30-bps this year. This is a drop from the 50-bps expected at the start of the year. All eyes are now on US inflation figures, which will continue shaping the outlook for rate cuts. Economists expect consumer inflation to increase by 0.3%, similar to the previous reading. At the same time, they expect the annual figure to hold at 2.6%. A bigger-than-expected figure will lower the likelihood of a Fed rate cut this year. On the other hand, a downbeat report might bring back bets for two rate cuts this year. However, before the CPI report, traders will focus on wholesale inflation. Elsewhere, the pound remained fragile due to the recent bond market rout. Market participants worry that the yield rally will force the government to adjust fiscal policy, hurting the economy. GBP/USD key events today Core PPI m/m PPI m/m GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bears aim for a new low in the downtrend On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is dropping after retesting the 1.2250 key level. Bears have maintained a solid decline since the price broke below the 1.2400 support level. However, the downtrend paused at the 1.2102 level. Nevertheless, the bearish bias remains strong since the price still trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI in bearish territory. -Are you looking for crypto exchanges? Check our detailed guide- Furthermore, if bears are ready to resume the downtrend, the price will soon break below the 1.2102 level to make a lower low. However, if the level holds firm, GBP/USD will make a double bottom, which could lead to a bullish reversal. The trend will only change when the price breaks above the SMA and the RSI above 50. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/14/gbp-usd-price-analysis-sterling-steady-ahead-of-us-inflation/

2025-01-14 10:27

The People’s Bank of China announced more measures to support its fragile economy. Consumer sentiment in Australia dropped in January. Traders eagerly await the US PPI report. The AUD/USD outlook indicates continued optimism about China’s efforts to support its weak economy, which has boosted the Aussie. Meanwhile, Australia’s decline in consumer sentiment could pressure the RBA to cut rates. On the other hand, market participants are looking forward to US inflation figures. -Are you looking for tips for forex trading? Check out the details- On Monday, the People’s Bank of China announced more measures to support its fragile economy. China has struggled to grow recently, pushing officials to introduce new policies to spur a faster recovery. For instance, the country will encourage companies to borrow more money overseas to improve capital flows. These measures have also boosted the weak yuan. At the same time, the Australian dollar, considered a proxy for the yuan, has soared. Elsewhere, data on Tuesday revealed that consumer sentiment in Australia dropped in January. The sentiment index fell by 0.7%, indicating weaker spending in the near term. A decline in spending creates the right conditions for the Reserve Bank of Australia to start cutting rates in February. Meanwhile, the greenback eased slightly after a strong rally amid a drop in Fed rate cut bets. Traders eagerly await the wholesale and consumer inflation numbers that will guide Fed policy. Upbeat inflation figures might wipe out expectations for any rate cut this year, boosting the dollar. AUD/USD key events today US Core PPI m/m US PPI m/m AUD/USD technical outlook: Stagnant near solid resistance zone On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has rebounded after its recent swing low to retest the 30-SMA resistance. At the same time, the price is retesting the 0.6200 key support turned resistance and the 0.382 Fib retracement level. If bears maintain control, the price will respect this resistance zone and bounce lower to make a new low in the downtrend. In this case, the price would break below the 0.6150 support level. -Are you looking for crypto exchanges? Check our detailed guide- On the other hand, bulls might be ready to take charge. Although the price made a new low, it came after a long consolidation. At the same time, the RSI failed to dip into the oversold region, showing weaker momentum. Therefore, if bulls gain momentum, the price will breach the resistance to revisit the 0.6300 key level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/14/aud-usd-outlook-aussie-rides-high-on-chinas-stimulus-efforts/