2025-01-07 09:49

Monthly consumer inflation in Germany rose by 0.4%. Trump might only impose tariffs on crucial imports. The US economy has remained resilient compared to the Eurozone. The EUR/USD outlook indicates higher-than-expected price pressures in major Eurozone economies that have supported the euro. Meanwhile, the dollar remained vulnerable after reports that Trump might go easy on proposed tariffs. The euro rose on Tuesday as market participants lowered expectations for ECB rate cuts due to upbeat inflation figures. Data on Monday revealed that consumer inflation in Germany rose by 0.4%, beating forecasts of a 0.3% increase. Germany is the largest Eurozone economy. Therefore, higher inflation in the country indicates a similar outcome in the bloc. Consequently, market participants adjusted expectations for European Central Bank rate cuts this year. Nevertheless, the ECB might still ease more than the Federal Reserve. The US economy has remained resilient compared to the Eurozone, which has slowed down significantly. At the same time, Fed policymakers have assumed a more cautious tone, projecting only two rate cuts this year. Elsewhere, traders continued digesting news on Monday that revealed Trump might only impose tariffs on crucial imports. Therefore, the overall impact might be softer than expected. As a result, the dollar remained fragile while the euro rose. Initially, the Eurozone was one of the main targets of Trump’s tariffs. Therefore, analysts started forecasting weaker demand for Eurozone goods that would hurt the economy and push the ECB to cut rates aggressively. Therefore, the news came as a relief for the euro. EUR/USD key events today ISM Services PMI JOLTS Job Openings EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls set sights on the 1.0450 resistance On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has broken above the 30-SMA, indicating a shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish. At the same time, the RSI trades near the overbought region, showing solid bullish momentum. Bears lost control when the price reached the 1.0250 support level. It made a large wick and failed to close below the key level. As a result, bulls emerged and slowly gained momentum to break above the 30-SMA and the 1.0351 resistance level. However, there is a solid hurdle at the 1.0450 level. If the price breaks above this level, it will confirm the start of a bullish trend. On the other hand, if the level holds firm, bears might resurface to challenge lower support levels. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/07/eur-usd-outlook-firm-amid-hot-eurozone-prices/

2025-01-06 10:44

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau might resign as early as Monday. The US will release figures showing the state of the labor market this week. Market participants will watch Fed speakers. The USD/CAD outlook shows optimism about Canada’s political landscape as markets anticipate the current Prime Minister’s resignation. Meanwhile, the greenback pulled back as markets awaited crucial economic data from the US to guide the likely Fed policy path further this year. Political uncertainty has plagued Canadian markets since last year. The most recent development was the increasing likelihood that the current Prime Minister would lose his seat at the next election. This created uncertainty about the future, hurting the loonie. However, recent reports have shown that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau might resign early Monday. Such an outcome would clear some of the fog regarding the future, strengthening the Canadian dollar. Nevertheless, the uncertainty will remain until after an election. Meanwhile, the US dollar eased slightly as traders paused at the start of a week packed with key US economic reports. To start the year, the US will release figures showing the state of the labor market. These include job vacancies, private employment, unemployment claims, and nonfarm payrolls. Upbeat figures will support the outlook for gradual Fed easing this year, boosting the dollar. On the other hand, downbeat numbers will increase rate-cut expectations. At the same time, market participants will watch Fed speakers who might emphasize the need for caution this year. USD/CAD key events today Neither Canada nor the US will release any major reports today. Therefore, traders will focus on political developments in Canada. USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears Eye a Range Breakout On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is consolidating between the 1.4351 support and the 1.4450 resistance levels. The sideways move follows a period when the price consistently made higher highs and lows. At the same time, it respected the 30-SMA as support, while the RSI traded above 50 in bullish territory. However, bulls were unable to breach the 1.4450 resistance despite several attempts. The price trades below the 30-SMA within the range, showing bears are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI trades below 50 after making a bearish divergence. This indicates fading bullish momentum within the range. Therefore, bears are likely to challenge and break below the range support. Such an outcome would allow USD/CAD to reach the 1.4200 psychological support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/06/usd-cad-outlook-trudeaus-likely-resignation-boosts-cad/

2025-01-06 09:35

The US will release key figures showing the country’s employment state. Markets remain uncertain about the looming shift in leadership in the US. Economists expect inflation in Australia to increase by 2.2%. The AUD/USD forecast presents bullish sentiment on Monday. The Aussie rebounded as the dollar gave up some of its recent gains ahead of key economic data this week. Meanwhile, market participants also look forward to Australia’s consumer inflation report for clues on RBA rate cuts. The greenback eased Monday as traders awaited more clues on the Fed’s easing policy this year. The US will release key figures showing the country’s employment state. Market participants will mainly focus on the nonfarm payrolls that will impact the outlook for Fed rate cuts. An upbeat report will support the forecast for only two rate cuts this year. On the other hand, cracks in the labor market might convince policymakers to implement more rate cuts, weighing on the dollar. Meanwhile, markets remain uncertain about the looming shift in leadership in the US. Although Trump has openly pronounced his policy plans, things might be different when he takes office later this month. Elsewhere, Australia will release its consumer inflation report this week, guiding the outlook for RBA rate cuts. The Reserve Bank of Australia might be the last major central bank to start lowering borrowing costs. Economists expect inflation to increase by 2.2%, compared to a previous reading of 2.1%. AUD/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any significant reports from the US or Australia today. AUD/USD technical forecast: Breaks above the 30-SMA On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken above the 30-SMA after failing to breach the 0.6200 support level. At the same time, the RSI has broken above 50, indicating solid bullish momentum. Initially, AUD/USD traded in a downtrend that slowed near the 0.6200 support level. Here, bears lost enthusiasm, and the price started moving in a range. At the same time, the RSI made a bullish divergence, showing weaker bearish momentum. This allowed bulls to take charge by breaching the 30-SMA resistance. However, they must now break above previous highs to start an uptrend. Therefore, the price will target the 0.6275 resistance level. A break above will confirm an uptrend. On the other hand, if the resistance holds firm, bears might resume the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/06/aud-usd-forecast-aussie-bounces-back-as-dollar-bulls-fade/

2025-01-04 16:46

The Fed and the Reserve Bank of Australia will remain cautious this year. US unemployment claims unexpectedly fell, indicating a resilient labor market. Business activity in the US manufacturing sector improved. The AUD/USD weekly forecast suggests little policy easing in the US and Australia this year, which could result in a neutral bias. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair fluctuated this week and ended nearly flat as traders adjusted to the outlook for the new year. The Fed and the Reserve Bank of Australia will remain cautious this year. The Fed has projected only two rate cuts, while the RBA might not start cutting until the second quarter due to still-high inflation. At the same time, market participants paid attention to US data, which showed that unemployment claims unexpectedly fell, indicating a resilient labor market. At the same time, business activity in the manufacturing sector improved but remained in contraction. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, investors will focus on US reports, including FOMC minutes and monthly employment figures. The FOMC minutes will show how the Fed decided to cut interest rates in December. At the same time, it will contain clues for future moves. During the December meeting, the Fed projected only two rate cuts this year, causing a big decline in the AUD/USD pair. Moreover, traders will pay attention to the first nonfarm payrolls report for the year. The employment figures will continue shaping the outlook for Fed rate cuts in 2025. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Small-bodied candles signal exhaustion On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has steadied near the 0.6202 support level. After a sharp fall, bears are showing some exhaustion at this level. The price has maintained a bearish trend since it broke below the 22-SMA, making lower highs and lows. This pattern has remained for long, allowing AUD/USD to break below major support levels. However, after the recent swing low, bears have shown some weakness at the 0.6202 level. The price is making small-bodied candles, and the RSI has made a slight bullish divergence. If this plays out next week, the price will likely rebound to the 22-SMA resistance. However, the bearish trend will remain intact if the price stays below the SMA. Bears will seek to make a new low below the 0.6202 support. On the other hand, a break above the SMA would signal a shift in sentiment, allowing AUD/USD to retest the 0.6450 resistance. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/04/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-neutral-bias-amid-subtle-policy-shifts/

2025-01-04 16:45

The Fed might cut rates only twice this year. Data this week showed an unexpected drop in US unemployment claims. The loonie fell as markets anticipated tariffs on goods from Canada. The USD/CAD weekly forecast paints a bullish picture for 2025, with gradual policy easing in the US and a weaker economy in Canada. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD price had a bullish week as the dollar rose at the prospect of gradual policy easing in the US. At the same time, upbeat data from the US supported the greenback. Meanwhile, the loonie fell ahead of Trump’s likely tariffs. The Fed might cut rates only twice this year, supporting the dollar. Meanwhile, economic resilience will also boost the currency. Data this week showed an unexpected drop in unemployment claims. Meanwhile, business activity in the manufacturing sector improved. On the other hand, the loonie fell as markets anticipated tariffs on goods from Canada under Trump’s new administration. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, the US will release its first monthly employment report in 2025. At the same time, market participants will watch the FOMC meeting minutes. Meanwhile, Canada will only release its monthly employment report. The US nonfarm payrolls report will show the state of employment in December. Faster-than-expected job growth will support the outlook for few Fed rate cuts this year. On the other hand, a downbeat report might increase rate-cut expectations. Similarly, Canada’s employment report will help shape the outlook for Bank of Canada rate cuts in 2025. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bulls challenge 1.4450 resistance On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has paused its uptrend at the 1.4450 resistance level. The bullish bias is strong since the price trades above the 22-SMA with the RSI in the overbought region. The uptrend has remained strong since the price broke above the 22-SMA. Bulls have respected this SMA as support, pushing prices off it to make new highs. At the same time, the RSI has traded above 50 in bullish territory, reaching the overbought region several times. If this momentum continues next week, the price will break above the 1.4450 level, making a higher high in the uptrend. However, before this happens, the price might pull back to retest the 22-SMA as support. If it bounces higher, the uptrend will continue. On the other hand, if it breaks below the SMA, it will signal a shift in sentiment to bearish. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/04/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-buyers-lead-as-fed-to-ease-gradually/

2025-01-03 10:56

The dollar soared to a two-year high against its peers on Thursday. Markets are now pricing 45-bps Fed rate cuts in 2025. Data revealed an unexpected drop in US unemployment claims. The EUR/USD price analysis shows the euro finding its feet after a collapse in the previous session to new lows. The currency dropped on Thursday as the dollar rallied amid expectations of a gradual pace for Fed rate cuts this year. At the same time, market participants are preparing for the impact of Trump’s likely policy changes. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The euro had a red day on Thursday as the dollar soared to a two-year high against its peers. This move extended last year’s rally after the Fed announced a drop in projected rate cuts this year. Fewer rate cuts mean interest rates will remain at restrictive levels longer. On the other hand, the European Central Bank is cutting rates to spur economic growth in the fragile Eurozone economy. Markets are now pricing 45-bps Fed rate cuts in 2025. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank might lower interest rates by 100-bps this year. Therefore, the ECB will be more aggressive, hurting the euro. Moreover, analysts believe the US economy will shine this year under Trump’s administration. His policy proposals on tax cuts and tariffs will likely boost demand in the US. However, they will pressure other major economies like the Eurozone. The dollar also rose after Thursday’s data revealed an unexpected drop in US unemployment claims, which indicated a resilient labor market. EUR/USD key events today US ISM manufacturing PMI EUR/USD technical price analysis: Rebound after hitting the 1.0250 support On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has found support at the 1.0250 level and is bouncing higher. However, it trades well below the 30-SMA, indicating a bearish move. At the same time, the RSI trades in bearish territory below 50. Therefore, the price might only pull back to retest the nearest resistance level before continuing its collapse. A surge in bearish momentum led to a break below the 1.0351 support level. This move came after bulls attempted a takeover by breaking above the 30-SMA. However, they failed to go past the 1.0450 resistance level. Consequently, bears emerged to push the price lower. The current rebound might pause at the 1.0351 level, the nearest resistance. At the same time, EUR/USD might revisit the 30-SMA before resuming its downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/03/eur-usd-price-analysis-euro-stabilizes-after-hitting-fresh-lows/