2025-01-02 13:52

The yen lost around 10% of its value in 2024. Analysts believe Trump’s administration will boost the economy and reheat price pressures. BoJ officials will wait to see the impact of Trump’s policies. The USD/JPY outlook suggests some relief for the yen at the start of the year as the greenback eases. However, the outlook for the yen remains dim due to expectations of fewer rate cuts in the US. At the same time, the outlook for Bank of Japan rate hikes is uncertain, leaving Japan’s currency vulnerable in 2025. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The yen lost around 10% of its value in 2024, mainly due to the wide gap in interest rates between the US and Japan. Towards the end of the year, there was hope that the Fed would cut rates and the Bank of Japan would hike them. However, this changed when Trump won the election. Suddenly, the outlook for Fed rate cuts changed, and the Bank of Japan assumed a cautious stance. Trump will take office in January. His policy proposals last year caused a shift in sentiment regarding the US economy and inflation. Analysts believe his administration will boost the economy and reheat price pressures. As a result, the Fed downgraded its forecast for rate cuts in 2025, raising the greenback. Meanwhile, BoJ policymakers took the cautious route, failing to give clear guidance for rate hikes this year. Officials will likely wait to see the impact of Trump’s policies. USD/JPY key events today US unemployment claims USD/JPY technical outlook: SMA break shows stronger bears On the technical side, the USD/JPY price trades slightly below the 30-SMA, showing that bears are in the lead. This move came after the uptrend paused at the 158.02 resistance level. Initially, bulls had solid momentum that kept the price above the 30-SMA and the RSI above 50. However, the 158.0 resistance created a solid barrier that allowed bears to resurface. A second attempt by bulls to break above the level was weak, as the price made small-bodied candles. Moreover, the RSI made a bearish divergence with the price, which indicated a decline in bullish momentum. As a result, the price broke below the 30-SMA to retest the 156.03 support level. However, bears must break below 156.03 to make a lower low and confirm a trend reversal. This would allow bears to reach the 153.02 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/02/usd-jpy-outlook-greenbacks-retreat-boosts-yen/

2025-01-02 11:04

The USD/CAD pair rallied in the latter parts of 2024. Trump proposed a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada. The loonie remains vulnerable after the Fed’s hawkish December meeting. The USD/CAD forecast shows uncertainty for the Canadian dollar in the new year amid expected US tariffs, a hawkish Fed, and political uncertainty in Canada. However, the loonie rebounded Thursday as the dollar eased on the first trading day of 2025. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The USD/CAD pair rallied in the latter parts of 2024 due to several factors that might spill into the new year. Markets were expecting a weaker economy after Trump proposed a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada. Trump will take office this month. Canada’s economy will be significantly affected if Trump executes this new policy. At the same time, the Bank of Canada would be under a lot of pressure to cut interest rates and spur economic growth. Meanwhile, the loonie remains vulnerable after the Fed’s hawkish December meeting. The US central bank lowered its projection for rate cuts this year, leading to a rally in the dollar and Treasury yields. Notably, market participants will pay attention to economic data, which will likely confirm this new outlook. Experts believe that Trump’s new administration will boost growth and lead to a spike in consumer inflation. Therefore, policymakers will likely remain cautious about rate cuts, and the greenback will rally. On the other hand, political uncertainty in Canada could further weaken the loonie. Notably, there is massive pressure on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down since his party might lose early this year. USD/CAD key events today US unemployment claims USD/CAD technical forecast: 1.4450 resistance triggers consolidation On the technical side, the USD/CAD price ranges between the 1.4350 support and the 1.4450 resistance levels. At the same time, it is chopping through the 30-SMA, a sign that both bears and bulls are strong. Previously, bulls were in the lead as the price traded above the 30-SMA, with the RSI above 50. However, the uptrend paused at the 1.4450 resistance level. Here, bears emerged with as much strength, leading to a pause in the bullish trend. The price currently sits above the 30-SMA, meaning that bulls will soon retest the range resistance. A break above will signal a continuation of the previous uptrend. However, if the price breaches the range support, it will likely fall back to the 1.4200 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/01/02/usd-cad-forecast-loonie-faces-stormy-skies-ahead/

2024-12-23 10:44

The UK economy recorded no growth in the third quarter. The pound rallied on Friday as the US dollar fell due to soft inflation figures. US inflation rose by 0.1%, below estimates of 0.2%. The GBP/USD outlook shows further weakness in the UK economy after the Office for National Statistics downgraded its estimate for Q3 growth. Meanwhile, the US dollar remained weak after Friday’s inflation figures came in softer than forecasts. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data on Monday revealed that the UK economy recorded no growth in the third quarter. This was a downgrade from the previous reading of a 0.1% growth. As a result, the pound eased slightly. Nevertheless, the Bank of England will likely remain cautious due to high inflation. A separate report on Friday showed that UK retail sales increased by 0.2%, missing forecasts of a 0.5% increase. Meanwhile, the pound rallied on Friday as the US dollar fell due to soft inflation figures. The US core PCE released on Friday revealed that inflation rose by 0.1%, below estimates of a 0.2% increase. This prompted the greenback to retreat from its weekly highs, giving sterling some relief. However, the outlook for the pair remains bleak. Last week, the dollar soared after the FOMC meeting, where policymakers cut rates but delivered a hawkish outlook for 2025. The central bank expects to lower borrowing costs by 50-bps next year. This was a deep downgrade from September, when policymakers were ready to cut by 100-bps. Market participants are now waiting to see whether Trump will pass his policy proposals after taking office in January. GBP/USD key events today It will be a slow holiday week for the pound. Therefore, market participants will continue digesting last week’s events. GBP/USD technical outlook: Rebound meets the 1.2601 resistance On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has rebounded to retest the 1.2601 resistance level. The downtrend paused when bears failed to trade below the 1.2500 support level. However, despite the pause and pullback, the downtrend remains intact since the price trades below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI suggests solid bearish momentum below 50. Moreover, bears have resurfaced at the 1.2601 resistance, ready to resume the downtrend. If this happens, they will aim for a new low below the 1.2500 support. On the other hand, a break above the 1.2601 resistance and the 30-SMA will signal a likely bullish reversal. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/23/gbp-usd-outlook-pound-retreats-as-down-q3-growth-estimate/

2024-12-23 09:58

Inflation increased by 0.1%, lower than the forecast of 0.2%. Market participants have adjusted to a more gradual outlook for the Fed. Data from Canada showed retail sales increasing by 0.6%. The USD/CAD forecast shows an extension of last week’s rally after a brief pause on Friday. The dollar eased as the week ended due to softer-than-expected US inflation figures. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar resumed last week’s decline amid a divergence in policy outlooks between the Fed and the Bank of Canada. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- On Friday, the US core PCE price index report revealed that inflation increased by 0.1%, lower than the forecast of 0.2%. As a result, the greenback eased after a strong week. The softer figures rekindled hopes that inflation would reach the Fed’s target. However, it was not enough to change the outlook for rate cuts in 2025. Last week, the Federal Reserve lowered borrowing costs and forecasted fewer rate cuts in 2025. As a result, market rate cut bets plunged, boosting the dollar and weighing on the Canadian dollar. Market participants have adjusted to a more gradual outlook for the Fed. On the other hand, the Bank of Canada has maintained an aggressive pace to spur growth in the weak economy. Moreover, experts believe this will continue, given the likelihood of tariffs on Canadian exports to the US. Such an outcome would undo some of the BoC’s efforts to revive the economy. Consequently, it would put more pressure on the central bank to lower interest rates. Elsewhere, Friday’s data from Canada showed retail sales increasing by 0.6%, below forecasts of 0.7%. Traders will now watch GDP data for more clues on the BoC’s rate-cut outlook. USD/CAD key events today Canada GDP m/m USD/CAD technical forecast: Bulls reemerge at the 30-SMA support On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is bouncing higher after finding support at the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has retested and is bouncing off the 50 level, separating the bullish and bearish territory. As a result, the bullish bias is strong, with the price above the 30-SMA and the RSI in bullish territory. Bulls are eyeing the 1.4450 resistance level, which was the previous high. A break above this level would make a higher high, continuing the bullish trend. The price would target higher resistance levels. However, if the level holds firm, the price might make a double top, signaling a looming bearish reversal. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/23/usd-cad-forecast-dollar-rally-resumes-after-brief-lull/

2024-12-21 18:05

Business activity in the US rose, supported by the service sector. The economy expanded by 3.1% in the fourth quarter. The Fed cut rates but projected only 50 bps of cuts in 2025. The AUD/USD weekly forecast suggests renewed downward pressure as the dollar rallies on the outlook of fewer Fed rate cuts in 2025. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair had a bearish week as the dollar soared on upbeat economic data and a drop in Fed rate cut bets. Data during the week revealed that business activity in the US rose, supported by the service sector. At the same time, retail sales jumped more than expected in November. Meanwhile, the economy expanded by 3.1% in the fourth quarter compared to forecasts of 2.8%. However, the primary catalyst came when the Fed cut rates but projected only 50 bps of cuts in 2025. This boosted the greenback and sunk the Aussie. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD The next important week will come in 2025 when the US will release its first major report on monthly employment. At the same time, investors will focus on the FOMC meeting minutes. The US nonfarm payroll report for December will show the state of the labor market going into the new year. A robust report will support the Fed’s new outlook for a gradual easing pace in 2025. On the other hand, a downbeat report will show cracks in the labor market, increasing Fed rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, the FOMC minutes will show what went into the December meeting. Moreover, it might contain clues about the future. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears prepare to breach the 0.6202 support On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has made a new low near the 0.6202 support level. This move has pushed the price well below the 22-SMA, a sign that bears have a strong lead. At the same time, the RSI trades in the oversold region, showing solid bearish momentum. After a corrective bullish move, bears took control by breaking below the 22-SMA and the 0.6675 level to make a lower low. Since then, the price has maintained a downward trajectory, making lower lows. The RSI has also maintained its position in bearish territory. Moreover, it has not made a bullish divergence, indicating that bears are still enthusiastic about lower prices. Therefore, the price will likely breach the 0.6202 support in the new year to make new lows. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/21/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-feds-2025-outlook-sparks-dollar/

2024-12-21 18:04

US data on sales, business activity and GDP growth all revealed a robust economy. Canada’s inflation rose more than expected, but sales missed forecasts. Fed policymakers forecast fewer-than-expected rate cuts in 2025. The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows a divergence in policies between the Fed and the BoC that has hurt the loonie. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The loonie had a bullish week amid a mix of data from Canada and the US. US data on sales, business activity, and GDP growth all revealed a robust economy that needs restrictive monetary policy. Meanwhile, in Canada, inflation rose more than expected, but retail sales missed forecasts. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the FOMC meeting gave the dollar a boost as policymakers forecasted fewer-than-expected rate cuts in 2025. The outlook especially weighed on the loonie since the Bank of Canada has maintained an aggressive easing cycle, which might continue in 2025. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD In 2025, traders will study major reports showing employment change in the US and Canada. Additionally, the FOMC meeting minutes will give insight into Fed monetary policy. Notably, the US nonfarm payrolls report will show whether there was a surge in employment in December. At the same time, it will show the state of unemployment, which increased in November. An upbeat report will signal economic resilience, reducing Fed rate cut bets and boosting the dollar. On the other hand, soft figures might increase rate cut bets and weigh on the greenback. Meanwhile, Canada’s economy has been on a downtrend, pushing the Bank of Canada to cut rates aggressively in 2024. Weak employment figures will raise expectations for more rate cuts, which will sink the loonie. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Uptrend pauses at the 1.4450 resistance On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has paused its rally at the 1.4450 resistance level. However, the bullish bias remains strong since the price trades well above the 22-SMA, with the RSI in the overbought region. Therefore, the pause might allow the price to retest the 22-SMA before continuing higher. Since bulls broke above the 22-SMA, the price has traded in a higher high, higher low pattern, indicating a developed uptrend. At the same time, it has respected the 22-SMA as support. Meanwhile, the RSI has stayed above 50 in bullish territory. In the new year, USD/CAD might continue its uptrend after a pullback to retest the 1.4200 key level or the 22-SMA support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/21/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-fed-boc-divergence-triggers-bulls/