2024-12-10 10:18

Markets are awaiting the crucial US consumer inflation report due on Wednesday. The US NFP report pushed up bets for a December Fed rate cut. Data revealed a drop in job vacancies in the UK. The GBP/USD price analysis shows a range in the pound as traders eagerly await the US consumer inflation report. Meanwhile, data on Monday showed a decline in job vacancies in the UK, which could signal weakness in the labor sector. -If you are interested in Islamic forex brokers, check our detailed guide- The dollar held steady on Tuesday as markets awaited the crucial US consumer inflation report due on Wednesday. The report will continue to shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. An unexpected jump in inflation could lower the likelihood of a rate cut in December. On the other hand, if the figures come in line with expectations or lower, the dollar will collapse as rate-cut bets increase. The market recently raised the chances of a December rate cut after US unemployment jumped from 4.1% to 4.2%. Bets increased from 70% to 85%, weighing on the dollar. Another downbeat report could push bets to 100%. Meanwhile, the pound has recovered since the Trump trade as the dollar weakened ahead of the December Fed meeting. However, the UK economy remains fragile despite the Labour government’s new budget. In fact, data on Monday revealed that demand for labor had dropped in the UK, showing a slowdown in the labor sector. If this trend continues, the pound might resume its downtrend as BoE rate cut expectations increase. GBP/USD key events today There will be no high-impact economic releases from the UK or the US today, so the pair might trade in a thin range. GBP/USD technical price analysis: Price revisits channel support On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has maintained a shallow bullish trajectory, trading mostly above the 30-SMA. At the same time, it trades in a bullish channel with clear support and resistance lines. -If you are interested in brokers with Nasdaq, check our detailed guide- Bulls recently broke above the 1.2701 resistance level to make a higher high. However, the price has pulled back to retest the 30-SMA and the channel support line. If bulls remain in the lead, GBP/USD will bounce off this support zone to make new highs. As a result, the price would target the 1.2901 resistance level. On the other hand, a break below the support zone would signal a reversal. Bears would confirm this by making a new low below the 1.2701 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/10/gbp-usd-price-analysis-sterling-holds-steady-ahead-of-us-cpi/

2024-12-10 08:57

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged on Tuesday. Markets moved to price an over 50% likelihood of an RBA rate cut in February. Traders eagerly await the US Consumer Price Index report. The AUD/USD outlook shows weakness in the Australian dollar due to a surge in Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, the greenback remained steady ahead of the crucial US consumer inflation report. -If you are interested in Islamic forex brokers, check our detailed guide- The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged on Tuesday and softened its tone on inflation, boosting rate cut bets. Markets had expected the pause. However, the less hawkish tone was a surprise that caused a sharp market reaction. The RBA noted that policymakers had gained more confidence that inflation would reach its target. For months, policymakers have maintained a hawkish tone, emphasizing the need for restrictive policy. However, during the meeting, there was no mention of a restrictive policy. As a result, markets moved to price an over 50% likelihood of a rate cut in February. Initially, markets were expecting the first cut in May. The Australian dollar fell towards a 4-month as bears cheered the less hawkish tone. On the other hand, the US dollar held its ground as market participants looked forward to the US Consumer Price Index report for more clues on Fed rate cuts. Currently, markets are almost fully pricing a rate cut in December. However, a surprise reading on inflation could shift this outlook. AUD/USD key events today Markets will continue to absorb the outcome of the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting as there are no other key events. AUD/USD technical outlook: Bears charge at the 0.6375 support On the technical side, the AUD/USD price is approaching the 0.6375 support level. The price trades well below the 30-SMA, with the RSI in bearish territory below 50. As a result, the bearish bias is strong. However, on a larger scale, the price has maintained a shallow downtrend with periods of consolidation. -If you are interested in brokers with Nasdaq, check our detailed guide- Previously, the price ranged between the 0.6450 support and the 0.6550 resistance level. It then broke below the range support to continue the downtrend. However, it might remain in a new range with support at 0.6375 and resistance at 0.6450. On the other hand, if bearish momentum surges at the 0.6375 support, the price will break below to make a new low in the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/10/aud-usd-outlook-aud-slumps-as-rba-rate-cut-odds-soar/

2024-12-09 10:32

US employers added 224,000 new workers in November. Markets raised the likelihood of a 25-bps December Fed rate cut from 70% to 85%. Traders await the US CPI report for more clues on Fed rate cuts. The EUR/USD outlook shows some strength in the euro as the dollar drops due to increasing bets for a December Fed rate cut. Meanwhile, traders remained cautious ahead of key US inflation data that will continue shaping the outlook for US monetary policy. -If you are interested in Islamic forex brokers, check our detailed guide- The greenback fluctuated on Friday when data showed a mixed picture of the US labor sector. Employers added 224,000 new workers in November, beating forecasts. This surge in job growth initially boosted the dollar. However, the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%, signaling cracks in the labor market. As a result, markets raised the likelihood of a 25-bps December Fed rate cut from 70% to 85%, weighing on the dollar. Meanwhile, the euro remained vulnerable ahead of the ECB meeting. At the same time, fears of likely US tariffs have kept downward pressure on the currency. A Reuters poll showed that most economists expect the European Central Bank to lower borrowing costs by 25-bps in December. At the same time, they expect 100-bps of cuts by the end of next year. Meanwhile, traders await the US CPI report for more clues on Fed rate cuts. EUR/USD key events today Neither the US nor the Eurozone will release any key reports today. Therefore, the pair might remain in consolidation ahead of a busy week. EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls challenge the 1.0601 resistance On the technical side, the EUR/USD price is trading in a range between the 1.0400 support level and the 1.0601 resistance level. This sideways move came after a downtrend that weakened at the 1.0400 support level. The range is a shallow corrective move that might end to allow the downtrend to continue. Therefore, bulls might find it difficult to breach the 1.0601 resistance level. Meanwhile, a break below the 1.0400 support level would signal a continuation of the downtrend. -If you are interested in brokers with Nasdaq, check our detailed guide- On the other hand, if bears are not strong enough to continue pushing EUR/USD lower, it might reverse to start an uptrend. Currently, bulls are pushing the price higher after retesting the 30-SMA support. However, the price must break above the 1.0601 resistance level to make higher highs and lows. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/09/eur-usd-outlook-fed-rate-cut-odds-boost-euro/

2024-12-09 09:08

Canada employment figures solidified bets for a massive Bank of Canada rate cut. Canada’s unemployment rate soared from 6.5% to 6.8%. The US economy added 224,000 jobs in November. The USD/CAD forecast shows bulls at the front as the Canadian dollar stays weak after downbeat domestic employment figures. Meanwhile, the dollar firmed against the loonie ahead of crucial US inflation figures. -If you are interested in Islamic forex brokers, check our detailed guide- The Canadian dollar ended last week down after employment figures solidified bets for a massive Bank of Canada rate cut. Notably, Canada’s economy added 50,500 jobs compared to a forecast of 24,700. However, market participants focused more on the unemployment rate which soared from 6.5% to 6.8%, well above estimates. The surge in unemployment caused a shift in rate-cut expectations. Major banks in Canada upgraded their forecasts from a 25-bps cut to a 50-bps cut. At the same time, a Reuters poll revealed that most economists expected a 50-bps Bank of Canada rate cut this week. On the other hand, the greenback fluctuated on Friday after a mixed employment report. Similar to Canada, US job growth increased, but unemployment rose. Figures revealed that the economy added 224,000 jobs in November, beating estimates of a 195,000 increase. However, the unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Initially, the unemployment news led to a surge in rate cut expectations, which weighed on the dollar. However, it recovered as the focus shifted to the resilient economy. This week, traders will watch the US consumer inflation report for more clues on Fed rate cuts. USD/CAD key events today Market participants do not expect any key reports from Canada or the US today. Therefore, the pair might consolidate. USD/CAD technical forecast: Bulls stall near 1.4150 On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has paused after breaching the 1.4150 resistance level. It trades well above the 30-SMA, showing bulls have a strong lead. At the same time, the RSI trades near the overbought region, indicating solid bullish momentum. -If you are interested in brokers with Nasdaq, check our detailed guide- Although the price has chopped through the SMA, it has maintained a bullish trajectory, making higher highs and lows. At the same time, the price has respected a bullish trendline, bouncing higher after retesting the line. The recent move came from this trendline, where bullish momentum surged, pushing the price beyond a solid resistance level. Bulls might struggle near the 1.4150 key level for a while before making a new high. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/09/usd-cad-forecast-loonie-tumbles-after-canada-jobs-data/

2024-12-07 19:10

The fears of a looming French government collapse weighed on the euro. The dollar fell due to downbeat service business activity and unemployment claims data. The US unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in November. The EUR/USD weekly forecast shows a recovery as French political turmoil eases and US unemployment surges. Ups and downs of EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair ended the week flat after fluctuating amid political developments in France and US economic data. The fears of a looming French government collapse weighed on the euro. However, the currency recovered when the actual collapse failed to have such a significant impact. French government bonds rebounded, boosting sentiment. -If you are interested in Islamic forex brokers, check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the dollar initially fell due to downbeat service business activity and unemployment claims data. However, the NFP report revealed a surge in job growth, temporarily boating the dollar. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, solidifying bets for a December Fed rate cut. Next week’s key events for EUR/USD Next week, traders will watch US inflation figures for clues on Fed monetary policy. The Consumer Price Index is due on Wednesday. The last report showed inflation had stalled above the central bank’s target. However, December Fed rate cut expectations remained steady since inflation met expectations. This time, if inflation is higher than expected, it will reduce the likelihood of a December rate cut. On the other hand, if it meets forecasts or comes in below, rate-cut bets will surge, and the dollar will fall. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index, due on Thursday, will show price pressures at the producer level. The PPI is a leading indicator of future consumer prices. Therefore, a drop will support rate-cut bets, while an increase will boost the likelihood of a Fed pause. EUR/USD weekly technical forecast: Rebound meets solid resistance zone On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has pulled back to retest the 22-SMA resistance after meeting the 1.0400 support. Although it punctured the SMA, the bearish bias remains intact. The RSI trades below 50, suggesting strong bearish momentum. -If you are interested in brokers with Nasdaq, check our detailed guide- Moreover, bulls have punctured the SMA before and failed to reverse the trend. This has created a resistance trendline slightly above the SMA. A break above this trendline would signal a likely reversal. However, if bears remain in the lead, the price will bounce lower next week to retest the 1.0400 support level. A break below this level would continue the downtrend with a lower low. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/07/eur-usd-weekly-forecast-rebound-amid-stability-in-france/

2024-12-07 19:07

Traders increased the likelihood of a massive Bank of Canada rate cut in December. Canada’s unemployment rate jumped from 6.5% to 6.8%. US job growth surged, with over 200,000 jobs in November. The USD/CAD weekly forecast suggests further upside for the pair as markets await another massive BoC rate cut. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair had a bullish week, where the Canadian dollar lost ground against the US dollar. The loonie was weak as traders increased the likelihood of a massive Bank of Canada rate cut in December. At first, this was due to a downbeat GDP report. Moreover, Canada released a mixed employment report on Friday. Markets focused on the unemployment rate, which jumped from 6.5% to 6.8%. -If you are interested in Islamic forex brokers, check our detailed guide- Meanwhile, the greenback fared better despite mixed economic figures. Business activity in the US services sector fell. On the other hand, job growth surged, with over 200,000 jobs in November. However, unemployment also increased to 4.2%, solidifying the chance of a December Fed rate cut. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, market participants will focus on US consumer and producer inflation data. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada will hold its policy meeting on Wednesday. The US inflation figures will shape the outlook for the December Fed meeting. Last month, inflation increased in line with expectations, indicating a pause in the downtrend. An upbeat report this week will increase the likelihood of a Fed pause in December. On the other hand, a downbeat report will solidify rate-cut bets, weighing on the dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada might implement another super-sized rate cut next week. Canada’s economy has significantly slowed, putting pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates. A 50-bps cut will likely weaken the loonie. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bulls test 1.4152 resistance On the technical side, the USD/CAD price made a sharp move from the 22-SMA to the 1.4152 resistance level. As a result, the price has moved well above the SMA, showing bulls are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI, which had initially shown fading momentum, broke above its resistance line and is approaching the overbought region. -If you are interested in brokers with Nasdaq, check our detailed guide- However, bulls are still facing a strong hurdle at the 1.4152 level. A break above this level will make a higher high, continuing the bullish trend. On the other hand, if the level holds firm, the price might bounce lower next week to retest the 22-SMA support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/12/07/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-gaining-ahead-of-major-boc-cut/