2024-10-16 07:31

Canada’s annual inflation eased more than expected to 1.6% in September. Market participants raised the likelihood of a 50-bps rate cut from 50% to 74%. Traders are awaiting the US retail sales report for more insight into the economy’s health. The USD/CAD price analysis shows a slight retreat, with fundamentals supporting further upside. The Canadian dollar traded near a 10-week low after inflation numbers were lower than expected. Meanwhile, the greenback remained firm, with higher expectations for a small Fed rate cut in November. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- Canada’s annual inflation eased more than expected to 1.6% in September, raising the likelihood of a massive October Bank of Canada rate cut. Canada’s central bank recently shifted its focus to preserving growth. At the same time, policymakers are worried inflation might fall too much. Therefore, there is a lot of pressure to lower borrowing costs. After the CPI report, market participants raised the likelihood of a 50-bps rate cut from 50% to 74%. The loonie has fallen sharply in the past few weeks due to a strong dollar and a drop in oil prices. Oil fell sharply on Tuesday after reports that Israel might not hit Iranian oil. Previously, oil had risen due to an escalation in the Middle East war. However, tensions have cooled, removing the premium on oil. Meanwhile, the dollar held steady as market participants adjusted to the new outlook for Fed rate cuts. Notably, policymakers have assumed a more cautious tone, with some expecting only one more rate cut this year. Traders are awaiting the US retail sales report for more insight into the economy’s health. Moreover, the report will impact rate cut expectations. USD/CAD key events today Market participants do not expect high-impact data from the US or Canada today. Therefore, they will keep digesting the new outlook for BoC rate cuts. USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bears trigger after RSI divergence On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has retreated after finding resistance at the 1.3825 level. The pullback comes after a steep bullish rally that showed fading momentum when the RSI made a bearish divergence. However, the bullish bias remains intact since the price trades above the SMA with the RSI above 50. –Are you interested to learn more about making money in forex? Check our detailed guide- Therefore, it might find support at the SMA before bouncing higher. A break above 1.3825 would confirm a continuation of the bullish trend. However, if bulls fail to make a higher high, bears might take charge with a break below the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/16/usd-cad-price-analysis-cpi-led-rally-fades-below-1-3800/

2024-10-15 08:28

Average weekly earnings in the UK met forecasts at 4.9%. Market participants maintained the chances of a November BoE rate cut at 80%. The greenback remained firm due to a shift in tone among Fed officials. The GBP/USD price analysis shows little change, as the pound remains within its tight range. UK employment figures failed to change the outlook for Bank of England rate cuts. Market participants are focused on upcoming inflation data. Meanwhile, the dollar remained steady as policymakers assumed a cautious tone on rate cuts. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data on Tuesday revealed that average weekly earnings in the UK met forecasts at 4.9%. Meanwhile, monthly unemployment claims surged to 27,900, above estimates of 20,200. However, the figures had little impact on the pound. Moreover, market participants maintained the chances of a November BoE rate cut at 80%. Meanwhile, traders are eagerly awaiting the inflation report due on Wednesday. UK price pressures have eased significantly. In September, economists believe inflation will ease further, coming in at 1.9%. A lower figure would increase the likelihood of a November Bank of England rate cut. Meanwhile, an upside surprise would boost the pound by lowering rate-cut expectations. Elsewhere, the greenback remained firm due to a shift in tone among Fed officials. On Monday, two policymakers noted that the US central bank should proceed cautiously. These sentiments come after recent data showed a robust economy. At the same time, inflation was higher than expected in September. As a result, market participants are pricing a slight chance of a Fed pause in November. This week, the US retail sales will further shape the outlook for rate cuts. GBP/USD key events today Market participants will keep digesting the employment figures as there won’t be any more key events. GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bulls test the 30-SMA resistance On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is challenging the 30-SMA resistance. The price has remained in a tight consolidation, slightly below the SMA, indicating a period of indecision. However, the RSI supports a looming bullish reversal as it has made a bullish divergence. Bearish momentum faded when the price reached the 1.3051 support level. –Are you interested to learn more about making money in forex? Check our detailed guide- If bulls take charge with a break above the 30-SMA, the price will target the 1.3201 resistance level. Otherwise, the downtrend will likely continue with a new low below 1.3051. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/15/gbp-usd-price-analysis-sterling-gains-despite-downbeat-data/

2024-10-15 07:30

The US dollar has risen recently due to a shift in the outlook for Fed policy. The Loonie plunged as oil prices dipped 3%. Traders are gearing up for Canada’s inflation data. The USD/CAD outlook shows fundamentals that support further upside for the pair. Fed policymakers have assumed a more cautious tone due to upbeat data, boosting the dollar. At the same time, the Loonie is collapsing with oil due to demand concerns and easing supply worries. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- The US dollar has risen against the Canadian dollar recently due to a shift in the outlook for Fed policy. US data has shown a resilient economy and inflation came in higher than expected in September. As a result, market participants started pricing in a small likelihood of a pause in November. Meanwhile, policymakers have resorted to cautious remarks regarding rate cuts. Christopher Waller and Neel Kashkari agreed that the Fed should proceed with caution. This is a significant change from September, when the Fed cut rates by 50-bps. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar plunged as oil prices dipped 3% on Tuesday. The decline came after data from China revealed a drop in September oil imports. Furthermore, market participants were disappointed with recent efforts to support China’s fragile economy. At the same time, supply worries eased after Israel said it might not strike Iranian oil. For weeks, oil has rallied on the likelihood of retaliation after Iran hit Israel with over 200 missiles. Elsewhere, traders are gearing up for Canada’s inflation data. Economists expect all the inflation numbers to remain the same from last month. Therefore, the monthly figure will likely drop by 0.2%. A bigger-than-expected drop will raise bets for Bank of Canada rate cuts, further sinking CAD. USD/CAD key events today Canada CPI m/m Canada Median CPI y/y Canada Trimmed CPI y/y USD/CAD technical outlook: Rally breaches the 1.3800 hurdle On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has risen to the 1.3800 key psychological level and trades far above the 30-SMA. Meanwhile, the RSI has stayed in the overbought region for a while, suggesting solid bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about making money in forex? Check our detailed guide- The bullish bias is strong. However, the price has been climbing for long without retracements. At the same time, the RSI has made a bearish divergence. Therefore, bulls are exhausted and might soon pause before continuing higher. Consequently, the price might soon revisit the 30-SMA or the 1.3700 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/15/usd-cad-outlook-oil-dip-strong-dollar-urge-for-a-rally/

2024-10-14 12:22

The dollar rallied last week after consumer inflation figures increased more than expected. Traders give the Fed a 91% chance to lower borrowing costs by 25-bps in November. Market participants await the US retail sales report. The USD/JPY outlook leans bullish, with the dollar firm after better-than-expected consumer inflation data. Meanwhile, the yen was weak despite Ishiba’s comments that he would not intervene in the BoJ’s policy adjustments. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- The dollar rallied last week after consumer inflation figures increased more than expected. The CPI rose by 0.3% in September and completely dashed hopes for another massive Fed rate cut this year. Furthermore, the inflation numbers came after the NFP report, which revealed an unexpected jump in US job growth. Initially, policymakers had taken a dovish tone due to fears that the US labor market was deteriorating. As a result, the focus shifted to preserving growth and demand. Therefore, the US central bank implemented a 50-bps rate cut, raising bets for more such cuts in 2024 and weighing on the greenback. However, the dollar rebounded as incoming data changed this outlook. Currently, there is a 91% chance that the Fed will lower borrowing costs by 25-bps in November. Furthermore, market participants are now pricing a slight chance of a pause. The next major report will show retail sales, which might shift the outlook for rate cuts. Elsewhere, the upcoming presidential election could cause some market turmoil. Therefore, market participants might prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of the final result. Meanwhile, the yen fell despite Ishiba’s comments on Saturday that he would stay out of the BoJ’s mandate for price stability. His earlier comments showed that he did not support a near-term rate hike. USD/JPY key events today It will be a slow start to the week for USD/JPY as neither the US nor Japan will release high-impact data. USD/JPY technical outlook: Weaker bullish trend On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is climbing after retesting the 30-SMA support. The bullish bias is strong, with the price above the SMA. At the same time, the RSI trades near the overbought region. However, it showed some weakness with a slight bearish divergence. –Are you interested to learn more about making money in forex? Check our detailed guide- Furthermore, price action shows smaller candles that show exhaustion. Therefore, bulls might fail to breach the 150.01 resistance level. Meanwhile, a break below the SMA will show a shift in sentiment to bearish. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/14/usd-jpy-outlook-dollar-extends-gains-after-upbeat-cpi/

2024-10-14 09:57

The US CPI increased by 0.3% in September, beating forecasts of a 0.2% increase. Market participants are pricing a 91% chance of a 25-bps November Fed rate cut. US producer prices were unchanged in September, compared to expectations of a 0.1% increase. The GBP/USD forecast shows indecision as market participants absorb recent US inflation figures. The dollar remained steady after rate cut bets fluctuated last week with mixed US economic figures. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- After a sharp decline, the pound remained in a tight consolidation as traders adjusted to a drop in Fed rate cut expectations. Last week, data from the US showed a jump in consumer inflation. The CPI increased by 0.3% in September, beating forecasts of a 0.2% increase. The unexpected increase followed a blockbuster monthly jobs report, which wiped out expectations for another 50-bps rate cut in November. Consequently, the dollar has rallied as markets reprice the Fed’s policy outlook. Currently, market participants are pricing a 91% chance of a 25-bps rate cut plus a small likelihood of a pause. Initially, bets had dropped to 80% before climbing after a downbeat wholesale inflation report. Producer prices were unchanged in September, compared to expectations of a 0.1% increase. This was in line with the view that inflation would soon reach the Fed’s target. Therefore, the central bank will likely cut in November. Nevertheless, as more data comes in, this likelihood will keep changing. Meanwhile, the UK economy expanded by 0.2% in August after stagnation. However, since the figure met forecasts, the pound barely rose. This week, markets will focus on retail sales data from the US and the UK, which will show the state of consumer spending. This will likely influence the outlook of monetary policy in both countries. GBP/USD key events today The pair might keep consolidating since no key reports are coming from the US or the UK. GBP/USD technical forecast: Price shows indecision near 1.3051 On the technical side, the GBP/USD price trades between the 30-SMA resistance line and the 1.3051 support level. Meanwhile, the RSI trades below 50, suggesting solid bearish momentum. However, despite the clear bearish bias, the RSI has made a bullish divergence, showing the downtrend has weakened. –Are you interested to learn more about making money in forex? Check our detailed guide- Therefore, if bears emerge, they might take control with a break above the SMA. On the other hand, if bears regain momentum, the downtrend will continue with a new low below 1.3051. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/14/gbp-usd-forecast-us-inflation-data-triggers-indecision/

2024-10-12 18:56

The US CPI number came in higher than expected, showing increased price pressure. Wholesale inflation missed forecasts, weakening the dollar. The US will release retail sales figures showing consumer spending. The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows a bearish tilt amid strong dollar as US data diminishes hopes for a Fed’s rate cut in November. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The Aussie had a bearish week with no major economic reports from Australia. Meanwhile, the US released several key reports that increased the likelihood of a pause during the November Fed meeting. –Are you interested to learn more about ECN brokers? Check our detailed guide- The US CPI number came in higher than expected, showing increased price pressure. Although it eased rate cut bets, policymakers are convinced inflation will reach the 2% target. Meanwhile, wholesale inflation missed forecasts, weakening the dollar. Another report showed a higher-than-expected number of jobless claims, indicating weakness in the labor market. Market participants also reviewed the FOMC meeting minutes, which showed a strong dovish stance before September’s robust employment figures. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, Australia will release employment figures that might impact the RBA’s policy outlook. Australia’s labor market has shown resilience in the past, leading to a hawkish tone from RBA policymakers. In the last report, there were 47,500 jobs, with the unemployment rate at 4.2%. This month’s report might show continued resilience or signs of a cooling labor market. A robust report would boost the Aussie by pushing back the timing for the first rate cut. On the other hand, if there are signs of weakness, market participants will increase bets for a cut in December. Meanwhile, the US will release retail sales figures showing consumer spending. A jump in sales will indicate robust consumer spending, reducing bets on a November Fed rate cut. The opposite is also true. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bears breach channel boundaries On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken out of its bullish trendline in a sharp bearish move. Bulls gave up control when the price got to the 0.6901 resistance level. They confirmed this shift in control when the price broke below the 22-SMA and the channel support line. –Are you interested to learn more about making money in forex? Check our detailed guide- However, the price is currently facing the 0.6700 support level. Therefore, it might bounce higher to retest the recently broken channel line before either climbing or bouncing lower to break below 0.6700. A break below this level would clear the path to the next significant support at 0.6501. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/12/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-us-data-dims-feds-move-in-nov/