2024-10-26 19:07

US unemployment claims fell more than expected. Business activity in the US manufacturing and services sectors improved. Market participants will pay attention to Australia’s inflation data. The AUD/USD weekly forecast indicates continued resilience in the US economy, keeping the dollar firm against the Australian dollar. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The AUD/USD pair ended the week down as the dollar rose after upbeat US economic data. At the same time, Middle East tensions increased demand for the greenback. The US released two significant reports on jobless claims and business activity. Unemployment claims fell more than expected, indicating tight labor market conditions. As a result, rate cut expectations eased, boosting the dollar. A separate report revealed that business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors improved as demand increased. At the same time, the war between Israel and Hezbollah escalated, sending traders to haven assets like the dollar. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD In the coming week, market participants will pay attention to Australia’s inflation data. Meanwhile, the US will release data on GDP manufacturing PMI and nonfarm payrolls. Australia’s CPI numbers will significantly shape the outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia rate cuts. If inflation surprises to the upside, the Aussie will rally as rate-cut expectations fall. On the other hand, the nonfarm payrolls report will be among the last significant reports before the Fed’s November meeting. An upbeat report will likely lower the likelihood of a rate cut. On the other hand, an unexpected decline in job growth could bring back bets for a super-sized rate cut. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: 0.6650 break confirms new downtrend On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has reversed to the downside on the daily chart. Bears took control when the price broke below the 22-SMA support line. Moreover, the price broke below the 0.6650 support to make a lower low, confirming the reversal. Meanwhile, the RSI has dipped into bearish territory and trades near the oversold region, suggesting solid momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about forex signals? Check our detailed guide- Furthermore, AUD/USD has broken below the 0.5 Fib retracement level, signaling a significant pullback or reversal. The solid bearish bias means the price will likely retest the 0.6501 next week. Additionally, the price might make the first lower high, further confirming the new downtrend. This bias will remain as long as the price stays below the 22-SMA and the RSI trades below 50. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/26/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-strong-data-boosts-dollar/

2024-10-25 09:16

Data on Friday showed that Tokyo’s inflation eased below 2%. Market participants are watching the upcoming election in Japan. Economic data showed a surge in US business activity. The USD/JPY price analysis shows a dim outlook for Bank of Japan rate hikes after Tokyo’s inflation eased below the 2% target. As a result, the yen remained fragile near a three-month low and was heading for a fourth week of losses. Meanwhile, the dollar eased slightly with Treasury yields but hovered near recent peaks. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data on Friday showed that Tokyo’s inflation eased below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, challenging the outlook for rate hikes. Japan’s central bank has been hoping for higher inflation and consumption to support its rate-hiking cycle. However, weaker price pressure might cause further delays in rate hikes, weakening the yen. At the same time, market participants are watching the upcoming election in Japan, which might affect BoJ’s policy plans. According to polls, the ruling party could lose its majority status, which would change the outlook for fiscal policy. Such changes could also affect future rate hike plans. Meanwhile, the greenback remained steady against most peers ahead of the US presidential election. Despite a slight pullback on Friday, the dollar is heading for another week of gains. This week’s rally in the dollar came as market participants worried about the escalating tensions in the Middle East. At the same time, speculations about the outcome of the November election caused fluctuations. At first, Trump was in the lead, boosting the dollar. However, this changed after a Reuters poll revealed that Kamala was in the lead. Elsewhere, economic data released on Thursday showed a surge in US business activity. Moreover, unemployment claims fell more than expected. The reports supported a more gradual pace for Fed rate cuts. USD/JPY key events today The pair might end the week quietly as neither the US nor Japan will release significant reports. USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bulls aim for 153.00 On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has retreated after meeting solid resistance at the 153.00 psychological level. However, bulls remain in the lead despite the drop. The price trades above the 30-SMA, and the RSI is in bullish territory. Therefore, the price has upside potential. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- A rebound near the 30-SMA will allow bulls to challenge the 153.00 level for a new high. A break above will signal a continuation of the bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/25/usd-jpy-price-analysis-boj-hike-odds-fade-as-inflation-cools/

2024-10-25 07:47

Gold hit a new record high on Wednesday due to escalating Middle East tensions. Market participants are uncertain about the looming US presidential election. Business activity in the US grew in October. The gold outlook indicates a slight shift in sentiment as prices retreat from a recent record high. The decline came after US data in the previous session showed continued resilience, reducing Fed rate cut expectations. Nevertheless, gold is heading for its third week of gains amid safe-haven inflows. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Gold hit a new record high on Wednesday as escalating Middle East tensions sent investors scrambling for safety. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah escalated with the two exchanging missiles, dashing hopes for a near-term ceasefire. Furthermore, Israel hit Gaza, killing 17 people. Elsewhere, market participants have been worried about the looming US presidential election. The tight race between Trump and Kamala has created uncertainty regarding the outcome. As a result, most traders prefer to stay on the sidelines or buy safer assets like gold. However, by Thursday, prices eased as US data revealed a robust economy, reducing pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. The first report showed that unemployment claims fell to 227,000 last week, while economists had forecast 243,000 claims. The drop indicated tight labor market conditions. A separate report revealed that business activity in the US grew in October. Notably, the S&P 500 Global composite PMI rose from 54.0 to 54.3, indicating solid demand. The US economy has performed better than expected in recent weeks, shifting the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Market participants see an increasing chance that the Fed will only cut once more this year, weighing on gold. Gold key events today Traders are not expecting high-impact economic reports from the US. Therefore, they will likely monitor the Middle East war and the upcoming US election. Gold price technical outlook: Bullish Momentum at Crossroads On the technical side, gold has eased from recent highs and is challenging the 30-SMA support. The bullish trend was strong until it got near the 2760.33 level. Here, bears made large candles, leading to a retest of the 30-SMA. Moreover, the decline followed a bearish RSI divergence, revealing weakness in the uptrend. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- If bears break the SMA, gold might revisit the 2720.46 support near the 0.5 Fib level. Otherwise, the uptrend will continue with a new high above 2760.33. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/25/gold-outlook-us-data-triggers-subtle-sentiment-shift/

2024-10-24 11:49

Data on Thursday revealed that Eurozone business activity remained weak in October. Markets are fully pricing a 25-bps ECB rate cut in December. US PMI numbers will show the state of business activity. The EUR/USD outlook leans south despite a short rebound as data revealed poor business activity in the Eurozone. However, the pair edged higher as the dollar eased amid uncertainty regarding the upcoming US presidential election. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Data on Thursday revealed that Eurozone business activity remained weak in October. The composite PMI came in at 49.7 compared to forecasts of 49.8. Figures below the 50 mark indicate contraction and weak economic demand. Consequently, market participants have increased bets for another European Central Bank rate cut in December. Markets are fully pricing a 25-bps rate cut in December. However, ECB’s Christine Lagarde emphasized caution on Wednesday when deciding policy. However, other policymakers have expressed more dovish remarks. Nevertheless, the euro recovered Thursday while the dollar eased from recent peaks ahead of the US presidential election. For weeks, the greenback has rallied as traders bet on a Trump win and higher inflation. However, a recent Reuters poll showed that Kamala Harris was in the lead, indicating a tight race. The uncertainty has caused some investors to pause and lock in profits before the election. Meanwhile, market participants await more hints on the future of Fed policy. US unemployment claims will show whether demand remains high in the labor market, which could lower bets for a November rate cut. Meanwhile, PMI numbers will show the state of business activity. The outlook for Fed policy has shifted to a more gradual one. Moreover, policymakers have assumed a more hawkish tone. Consequently, markets are placing a 29% chance that the central bank will cut rates only once more this year. EUR/USD key events today Unemployment Claims Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI EUR/USD technical outlook: Bears leading below the 30-SMA On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has rebounded to retest the 1.0801 key level. However, the downtrend remains intact since the price recently made a lower low. Moreover, it trades below the 30-SMA, with the RSI below 50, in bearish territory. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- Therefore, even if the uptrend continues, it might pause at the 30-SMA resistance. Here, the price will likely bounce lower to continue the downtrend beyond the 1.0750 level. However, if the price breaks above the SMA, the trend might reverse to the upside. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/24/eur-usd-outlook-eurozone-business-slump-dampens-outlook/

2024-10-24 10:20

The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 50-bps on Wednesday. Oil rose nearly 1% early on Thursday after Hezbollah hit Israel with missiles. The greenback remained steady as market participants waited for the November US presidential election. The USD/CAD forecast shows a pullback after the pair made new highs. The Canadian dollar dropped to an 11-week low on Wednesday after the Bank of Canada lowered borrowing costs by 50-bps. However, it recovered on Thursday as oil prices surged amid increased Middle East tensions. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 50-bps on Wednesday as expected. Canada’s central bank remains the most aggressive among its peers, which has weighed heavily on the Canadian dollar. The rate cut pushed Canada’s currency to an 11-week low against the US dollar. However, the loonie rebounded on Thursday as an exchange of missiles in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher. Oil rose nearly 1% early on Thursday after Hezbollah hit Israel with missiles. The war is raging on despite calls for a ceasefire. Therefore, the risk of escalation will keep oil and the CAD supported. Meanwhile, the greenback remained steady as market participants waited for the November US presidential election. Uncertainty over the possible outcome is sending more investors to safe-haven assets like the dollar and gold. At the same time, traders expect more economic data that will keep shaping the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Unemployment claims will show the state of the labor market. Meanwhile, PMI data will indicate the state of business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. A resilient economy will lower bets for a November cut, which could mean a pause. On the other hand, weakness will solidify bets for two more rate cuts before the year ends. USD/CAD key events today Unemployment Claims Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI USD/CAD technical forecast: Bulls exhausted near 1.3825 resistance On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is challenging the 30-SMA support line. Bulls recently made a new high in the uptrend but failed to sustain a move above the 1.3825 resistance level again. Furthermore, although the price made a higher high, the RSI continued trending lower, showing a bearish divergence. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- The divergence indicates exhaustion in the uptrend, which might allow bears to take over. If bears break below the SMA, the price will likely target the 1.3750 support level. Moreover, USD/CAD might start a downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/24/usd-cad-forecast-pair-retreats-after-reaching-new-peaks/

2024-10-23 09:03

The USD/CAD pair had a steep rally in October. Canada’s inflation has eased significantly, increasing bets for a super-sized BoC rate cut. Oil rose due to an improving demand outlook in China. The USD/CAD forecast suggests profit-taking after a strong rally, with the pair easing ahead of the crucial Bank of Canada policy meeting. At the same time, the Canadian dollar strengthened as oil prices rallied due to an improved demand outlook. –Are you interested to learn more about Australian forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The USD/CAD pair had a steep rally in October, with the stronger US dollar as the primary catalyst. Simultaneously, the Canadian dollar has weakened with increasing Bank of Canada rate cut expectations. The greenback strengthened as it became clear that the US economy was on solid ground. Therefore, the Fed has enough room to gradually lower borrowing costs. Initially, there were fears that the economy was slowing down rapidly. As a result, Fed policymakers voted for a significant rate cut in September. However, since then, they have shifted their outlooks and taken on a more cautious tone, boosting the dollar. Furthermore, the greenback has gained due to speculation on the upcoming US presidential election. At some point, Trump was in the lead, which increased the likelihood of high inflation. At the same time, uncertainty about the possible outcome is sending traders to safe-haven assets. On the other hand, Canada’s inflation has eased significantly, increasing bets for a super-sized BoC rate cut. As a result, the CAD has fallen sharply. However, a rally in oil prices on Tuesday allowed the loonie to recover slightly. Oil rose due to an improving demand outlook in China due to recent stimulus efforts. USD/CAD key events today BoC monetary policy meeting BoC rate statement BoC press conference USD/CAD technical forecast: Bears show strength near 1.3825 On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has made a new high above 1.3825 before retreating towards the 30-SMA support. Bears recently showed strength when the price punctured the SMA support. However, bulls soon took back control and made a new high. If you are interested in guaranteed stop-loss forex brokers, check our detailed guide- Nevertheless, the bullish move was weak, characterized by small-bodied candles. At the same time, although the price made a higher high, the RSI made a lower one, indicating a bearish divergence. If the divergence plays out, the price will soon break below the 30-SMA to retest the 1.3750 support level. Furthermore, such a move would indicate a shift in sentiment to bearish. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2024/10/23/usd-cad-forecast-traders-lock-profits-ahead-of-boc-meeting/