2024-09-30 07:30
Key takeaways Social issues related to matters such as wages and treatment of workers have been growing in recent years and pose risks to economies if the underlying causes go unaddressed. Related to this, companies with higher employee morale and more positive stakeholder impacts tend to achieve better productivity and outcomes, potentially leading to stock market outperformance. Accordingly, considering societal impacts is in investor interests, particularly as we navigate important issues such as climate change, growing income inequality and the advance of AI. Learning About ESG is an educational series that connects environmental, social and governance topics with investing. Join us each issue to see how global developments can have implications for investors. The better we understand ESG, the bigger the role it can play in our everyday lives – and investment portfolios – contributing to a better world. Today we finance a number of industries that significantly contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. We have a strategy to help our customers to reduce their emissions and to reduce our own. For more information visit www.hsbc.com/sustainability. The importance of a ‘just transition’ At the centre of this transition are people whose livelihoods will be affected by the momentous shift - from workers facing redundancy, to consumers impacted by energy prices and local economies that depend on oil revenue. A just transition will ensure that individual countries, communities or workers don’t bear a disproportionate burden as we shift to a low-carbon economy. This requires supporting communities reliant on carbon-intensive sectors to adapt their industries and train the workforce accordingly. Without this support, negative social outcomes can damage economies. Emerging markets are an important element of this story. Over the past few decades, a substantial portion of carbon-intensive industrial activity has been relocated from developed to emerging countries. This has been largely due to lower production costs and less scrutiny over environmental issues. Fast-growing emerging economies in Asia are now driving emissions growth – with the region accounting for roughly half of global emissions. Of course, environmental damage must be limited globally, which requires substantial change. While yet to be fulfilled, USD100 billion per year committed in climate finance to developing countries through the COP climate summits can support the objectives of a just transition, by helping facilitate the industrial change needed in these markets. Achieving a just transition has important financial implications for investors. Social issues related to shifting industries and job opportunities poses risks to political structures and economic growth. Furthermore, higher levels of morale in the labour market fosters better productivity, as supported by a prominent study of stock market returns from 1984 to 2009, with materially better performance by companies with high employee satisfaction. Clearly the oil industry is key to a just transition. Yet, of 100 companies assessed globally, roughly a quarter received a score of zero in an analysis of efforts to support a just transition. Societal and financial implications support growing investor scrutiny on this. Oil and gas company 2023 just transition assessment scores (out of 20) Source: HSBC Asset Management, World Benchmarking Alliance Climate and Energy Benchmark Report, 29 June 2023. The value of the social pillar of ESG A portfolio of the top 25 companies to work for, as ranked by the Great Place to Work Institute, has significantly outperformed the broader equity market over the last decade. While such a concentrated portfolio creates inherent biases, it aligns with prior academic research demonstrating that companies with higher employee morale and a more positive impact on communities in which they operate achieve better productivity and performance. Similarly, MSCI research delved into the performance impacts of the individual components of ESG (environmental, social and governance considerations). Analysing returns over the last decade, stocks with top quintile ‘S’ scores outperformed their bottom quintile peers, with the outperformance being more significant than equivalent comparisons for ‘E’ or ‘G’ scores. The performance advantage has been particularly evident in recent years, perhaps reflecting improved productivity from those companies that invested in their staff during the pandemic. When considering company morale and impacts on the communities in which they operate, whether company leadership reflects those communities can likewise be an indicator for performance and productivity. Various studies demonstrate a positive link between diversity and company performance. That is, companies with more diverse leadership have delivered better results, which is intuitive given the proven benefits of decision-making that incorporates different perspectives, such as those most relevant to local communities and customers. Per the chart below, the most diverse firms have seen an increase in their levels of outperformance, measured by profitability, over the years. Cause and effect for this outperformance can be complicated by a combination of factors. Nonetheless, data broadly support the argument that societal considerations are as important as any ESG pillars. Accordingly, making such considerations a priority is in the best interests of long-term investors. Greater diversity on executive teams aligns with financial outperformance Difference in likelihood of outperformance of 1st versus 4th quartile Past performance is not an indicator of future returns. Source: McKinsey & Company, December 2023. Society and shareholder interests aligned Inequality, another important societal issue, has increasingly been a topic of discussion due to strikes and other large-scale labour action in recent years. Income and wealth inequality has been on the rise almost everywhere since the 1980s and is now at its most severe since the early 20th century. This points to a need for improvement in workforce treatment and poverty reduction. In the absence of progress, we should expect more systemic issues such as breakdowns in social cohesion and disruptions to political stability. This will create turbulence in financial systems and hinder economic growth. Any discussion of investment in the workforce today would be incomplete without mentioning developments in artificial intelligence. Rapid progress in the technology has contributed to much angst around societal risks, from data privacy to the widescale elimination of human jobs. Accordingly, discussions among regulators, industry leaders and academics on these matters have picked up steam. The EU is taking significant strides in formally addressing concerns, with a proposed AI Act outlining a comprehensive governance framework around AI systems, extending from product development to data privacy. Other steps will surely follow. Regulations aside, while AI will certainly improve automation and reduce the need for certain human tasks, it will also enhance human productivity. Companies best positioned to succeed will prioritise training their workforces with the relevant skills to work alongside new AI capabilities and increase output. All of this discussion leads to the conclusion that incorporating social considerations within an ESG framework is in line with investors’ interests. For those seeking investment solutions focused more specifically on social considerations, we expect momentum to build with relevant offerings given evidence supporting potential performance benefits. Even more importantly, growing demand along with pressure from both investors and asset managers can help drive progress, including in laggard areas such as oil & gas. Glossary ESG: A set of Environmental, Social and Governance criteria that investors can apply to analyse and identify material risks and growth opportunities in investments. Just transition: Seeks to ensure that the benefits of a green economy transition are shared widely, while also supporting those who stand to lose economically. https://www.hsbc.com.my/wealth/insights/esg/learning-about-esg/2024-05-24/
2024-09-30 07:30
Key takeaways China’s policy focus is shifting to supporting consumption more, following announcements from the Third Plenum. Services consumption is a particular focus while falling home prices continue to be a major drag on economic growth. Growing coordination between urbanisation, industrialisation, and rural revitalisation policies should help consumption. China data review (August 2024) Industrial production growth slowed to 4.5% y-o-y in August as softer domestic demand weighed on production growth, despite robust exports data. Part of the drag stems from property-related weakness as well as policies to deter low-quality production in response to excess capacity in some sectors, such as steel and lithium-ion batteries (Global Times, 19 June; Bloomberg, 24 July). High-tech manufacturing, however, continued to outperform up by 8.6%. On the domestic consumption front, retail sales growth slowed again, to 2.1% y-o-y in August, with the key drag continuing to stem from purchases of discretionary goods, including autos (-7.3%), cosmetics (-6.1%) and jewellery (-12%). However, household appliance sales saw a 3.4% pick-up amid the consumer goods trade-in program. Services-related retail sales still outperformed sales of goods, although momentum continued to face. Fixed asset investment softened to 3.4% y-o-y in August as manufacturing (+8.0%) and infrastructure investment (+6.1%) growth were outweighed by the drag from property investment (-10.2%). Property has been a key drag on private investment so far this year, which has fallen to -0.2% y-o-y. Excluding property, private investment is up by 6.3% y-o-y year-to-date. Inflation prints in August saw some mixed performances on consumer and producer fronts. CPI inflation continued to rise in August, to 0.6% y-o-y, owing to a further pickup in food prices, although core CPI inflation was still weighed down by a relatively higher base and edged down to 0.3 % y-o-y. PPI inflation, meanwhile, fell to -1.8% y-o-y amid falling commodity prices and lingering pressures in some property-related sectors. Trade data provided some relief that the export boost may last longer, helping to offset some of the recent, sluggish domestic demand. Exports were up by 8.7% y-o-y in August driven by electronics and transport-related goods, while weakness continued to stem from consumer discretionary products. Imports, however, saw a softer increase of 0.5% y-o-y on the back of softer domestic demand weighed down by the property sector. The path to consumption growth China has often focused on boosting production to stimulate the economy. However, policymakers are now shifting their approach more towards supporting consumption, especially as spending has slowed, which they see as essential to meeting growth targets and facilitating the country’s economic transition. While there is a focus on goods, like the RMB150bn allocated to consumer goods’ trade-ins, July’s Politburo Meeting also highlighted services consumption, as did the State Council in August. Growing services demand Services consumption hasn’t yet reached half of all consumer spending in China, even though it is often the lion’s share in advanced economies (Chart 2), showing there is still plenty of room for growth. In the post-pandemic period, consumers have shown a clear preference for spending on experiences over buying physical items, mirroring the shift from goods to services seen in other economies. Given China’s current development stage as a high middle-income country, consumers naturally have growing demand for services as well. Note: Consumption expenditure is used, instead of retail sales, because retail sales only include one type of service consumption – catering. 2024 is H1 data. Source: Wind, HSBC Note: 2024 is H1 data. Source: Wind, HSBC Supporting services consumption July’s Politburo meeting reinforced the view that consumption-led growth will help drive the recovery. The Politburo specifically called for growth in domestic demand, driven by income growth, increasing consumption by low- and middle-income groups, and increasing consumption of services in areas like elderly care, childcare, and household-keeping services. This means that more near-term support to push forward consumption is likely, possibly in the form of direct subsidies to individuals tied to certain types of services. What’s held consumption back? Stabilising the housing market is critical as it is the primary drag on household asset value and consumer confidence. The good news is the recent shift in the policy stance by the central government: during the Third Plenum’s press conference, a senior official acknowledged the housing market’s systemic importance to the economy, justifying China’s direct bailout, such as using the central government’s balance sheet to acquire distressed housing units. Sustained consumption growth hinges on reforms across other areas The Third Plenum included reforms targeting productivity growth and enhancing social welfare, which are both capable of boosting domestic consumption. Providing public services based on permanent residence, as well as land reforms that allow migrant workers to profit from their rural properties, could unleash their full spending power. Meanwhile, reforms to reduce internal barriers (e.g. a unified national market) and accelerating opening-up could spur innovation and provide jobs for new graduates. Source: Refinitiv Eikon * Past performance is not an indication of future returns Source: Refinitiv Eikon. As of 15 Aug 2024 market close https://www.hsbc.com.my/wealth/insights/market-outlook/china-in-focus/2024-09/
2024-09-30 07:30
Did you know? 1. More to do What is success? COP28 overran significantly as all efforts focused on bridging the divergent views on fossil fuels. After a key win on day one from the operationalisation of the Loss & Damage Fund (a fund set up to pay developing countries for their climate-related loss and damages), discussions stalled on many key issues. If the success of COP28 is determined by whether fossil fuels were mentioned in the text, then there was some success. However, when evaluating the progress of various other climate issues, the outcomes were rather underwhelming. The beginning of the end After five drafts and a 36-hour debate, the global stocktake settled on “Transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science”. This recognises fossil fuels as the main cause of climate change, yet gives fossil fuels companies leeway to determine how and when they will take part in this transition. Lacking ambition The progression in ambition of climate pledges (due early 2025) was not strong. Previous statements were merely repeated without calling for a significant rise in ambition. Adaptation took a backseat at COP28 with a lack of financial support and a weak outcome for the Global Goal on Adaptation (which aims to enhance the world’s adaptive capacity to climate change) that only seemed to set broad collective goals. The support for vulnerable countries was lacking, and many Parties were left disappointed that those most responsible for climate change don’t seemingly have to pay the consequences. 2. Summary of the key outcomes The key focus of this COP28 was on the Global Stocktake (GST) and the language pertaining to fossil fuels and their potential phase-out. There was an overwhelming sense of relief by many delegations that fossil fuels were mentioned. While this is an important decision, progress elsewhere was overshadowed, possibly overlooked in our view – by the push to get fossil fuels mentioned in the GST. The first Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement The main debate revolved around the inclusion and implementation of a “fossil fuel phase-out/down” within the GST, with various options being considered throughout the fortnight. The GST recognises the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035 in order to limit warming to 1.5oC. However, it’s worth noting that there is no mention of a peak in emissions by 2025. The GST “calls on Parties to contribute to the following global efforts” by accelerating actions or using various tools, as shown below with our comments in red. Finance While there were various pledges to the Financial Mechanism, including Green Climate Fund, Global Environment Facility, Adaptation Fund, etc., not all of this finance is new and additional – with some subject to approval in domestic parliaments. In formal finance negotiations, discussion slargely stalled, with little progress to take forward. Indeed, we’re still left with the same ask for developed Parties to fulfill the annual climate finance target of USD100bn to support developing Parties. The Loss & Damage Fund The Loss & Damage (L&D) Fund was swiftly passed on day one and will be designated as a Financial Mechanism of both the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Paris Agreement. There will be an annual “high-level dialogue” to review the effectiveness of the fund and discuss how it can be improved. The initial focus will be on “priority gaps within the current landscape of institutions” with further arrangements be approved at COP29 in 2024. Total pledged contribution as of the end of COP28 (according to the Presidency) is an estimated USD792m, although there is uncertainty as to ongoing commitment to the Fund. There were many comments from Parties that the funding is significantly short of what is required, although it’s a start. Mitigation The Mitigation Work Programme (MWP) progressed slowly, mainly because negotiators were awaiting the outcome of the GST. Many wanted to use the MWP to scale up ambition, but others just used it as a placeholder – not wanting new targets (at odds with the GST). The MWP is supposed to last until COP 31 in 2026; however but after two weeks of discussion, there was little progress, except a recalling of previous views and encouraging the submission of new views. For example, the final decision even removed the previous text of “highlights the importance of accelerating the just energy transition”. Adaptation Adaptation didn’t seem to get the attention that the most vulnerable Parties were looking for. Many delegates were not impressed with the report of the Adaptation Committee, stating that it didn’t engage enough with the science, while discussions didn’t really address the upcoming limits to adaptation (as per Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The discussion around the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), which was established to enhance adaptive capacity to climate change, progressed slowly. However, adaptation finance was recognised in the GGA, with certain important parts reaffirmed. Nevertheless, the request for “developed Parties to provide to developing Parties” was dropped from the final decision. Article 6 of the Paris Agreement Article 6 of the Paris Agreement recognises that some Parties choose to pursue voluntary cooperation in the implementation of their nationally determined contributions to allow for higher ambition in their mitigation and adaptation actions and to promote sustainable development and environmental integrity (as per UNFCCC). Overall, we consider the whole of Article 6 to have been weakened by discussions at COP28 with some Parties even calling for the whole moratorium on carbon markets within the Paris Agreement. Notably, no decision was taken on inclusion of emissions avoidance in the mechanism. 3. What’s next in global climate talks? Implementation of all these initiatives is key. While the track record from previous COP summits hasn’t been great, these initiatives do add to peer pressure, ‘fear of missing out’ and bend the curve. Although they don’t go far enough, they are a starting point and we think the focus for all stakeholders – governments, businesses, financiers and investors as well as civil society – will be to ask for progress and hold signatories to account. https://www.hsbc.com.my/wealth/insights/esg/why-esg-matters/2024-01-09/
2024-09-30 07:30
Key takeaways The Fed cut rates by 50bp, challenging our view of USD strength… …but markets are likely to need more dovish signals for further USD weakness… …and the USD may enjoy support ahead of the US elections. The Federal Reserve (Fed) began its easing cycle with a 50bp cut at the 17-18 September meeting, taking the federal funds target range to 4.75-5.00%. The decision was not unanimous, with one dissenting vote for 25bp. The reported Bloomberg consensus among economists ahead of the meeting was overwhelmingly for a 25bp cut, but many (HSBC’s economics team included) seemed to view the outcome as more finely balanced. Markets also saw the outcome as uncertain but was skewed towards a 50bp cut, rather than a 25bp cut. It means the Fed’s first cut of the cycle was on the dovish side of expectations. The USD reacted accordingly, with initial weakness, but the signals were mixed. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s median interest rate projections (known as “median dots”) and the tone of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference pared back the USD bearish signal that this initial 50bp easing sent. In particular, the 2024 median dot showed only another 50bp of easing by yearend. Fed Chair Powell also reinforced the less dovish signal from this 2024 dot. He noted that there is nothing in the forecasts “that suggests the committee is in a rush.” He also said the Fed is not behind the curve and added that he does not “think anyone should look at this and think this is the new pace” – in reference to the 50bp cut. Future decisions will be taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis, including a “pause if that is appropriate” (Bloomberg, 18 September 2024). Source: Federal Reserve Our economists now forecast 25bp rate cuts at each of the next six policy meetings (although another 50bp “front-loaded” rate cut remains a risk for November), taking the federal funds target range down to 3.25-3.50% by next June. Another risk for 2025 is that the path of the economy and prospective Fed easing could be influenced by policy choices made as a consequence of the US election outcome. The Fed’s decision to cut by 50bp is a challenge to our view of USD strength in the months ahead. It will be interesting to see how patient the Fed’s tone sounds in the weeks to come, and the FX market is likely to remain sensitive to upcoming US data releases. Perhaps, market doves and USD bears will be satisfied with this FOMC outcome, but they are likely to need more dovish data for further USD weakness. It is also possible that the USD will enjoy support as US election uncertainty is set to loom large over the coming weeks. For now, it has been mixed signals for the USD. https://www.hsbc.com.my/wealth/insights/fx-insights/fx-viewpoint/flash-2024-09-20/
