2025-04-08 12:55
The EUR/USD outlook shows stronger bearish sentiment. Trump announced a 20% reciprocal tariff on Eurozone imports. Market participants are almost fully pricing an ECB rate cut next week. The EUR/USD outlook shows stronger bearish sentiment as Eurozone recession worries increase amid Trump’s tariffs. Meanwhile, the dollar paused its recent decline but remained fragile amid fears of a rapid economic slowdown. –Are you interested to learn more about South African forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The euro paused its rally and dropped on Tuesday as the focus shifted to the clouded outlook for the Eurozone economy. Initially, the currency rallied as the dollar collapsed after Trump’s new tariffs. However, sentiment slowly shifted when it became clear that the Eurozone might tip into a recession. So far, the US has imposed tariffs on steel aluminum, and automobiles that directly impact the Eurozone economy. Additionally, Trump announced a 20% reciprocal tariff starting this week that will further hurt demand for Eurozone exports. As a result, experts are forecasting weak economic growth. At the same time, there is massive pressure on the European Central Bank to lower borrowing costs and support the economy. Currently, market participants are almost fully pricing a rate cut next week. On the other hand, the greenback recovered from its recent lows, indicating a pause in the downtrend. However, fundamentals point to further weakness. The risk of a recession has shot up and the Fed might be forced to implement more rate cuts. EUR/USD key events today Market participants do not expect any key economic releases from the Eurozone or the US. Therefore, the price might consolidate. EUR/USD technical outlook: Bears challenge 30-SMA after bearish engulfing pattern On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has dropped to challenge the 30-SMA support. The price is on the verge of breaking below the SMA while the RSI has dropped to trade below 50, in bearish territory. However, it is still too early to declare a new bearish bias. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- Initially, bulls had pushed the price to reach the 1.1101 resistance level. However, they failed to breach the hurdle. Moreover, the price formed a bearish engulfing candle, signaling a looming reversal. After that, EUR/USD dropped to the 30-SMA. A break below the SMA will confirm a bearish shift in sentiment. However, the price must go below the 1.0800 support to confirm a new bearish trend. If this happens, bears will likely start making lower highs and lows. Moreover, the pair might reach the 1.0500 key psychological level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/08/eur-usd-outlook-eu-recession-fears-mount-amid-trump-tariffs/
2025-04-07 10:10
The AUD/USD outlook shows an increasing likelihood of a massive RBA rate cut. The trade war between China and the US escalated after Trump imposed new tariffs. Traders are pricing a 20% chance of a massive RBA rate cut in May. The AUD/USD outlook shows an increasing likelihood of a massive Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut. Notably, the Australian dollar held near a five-year low on Monday as risk appetite remained poor and the outlook for Australia’s economy dimmed. –Are you interested to learn more about South African forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Expectations for an RBA rate cut increased on Monday amid worries of a global economic downturn. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar plunged last week after Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs on most of the US’s trading partners. The most affected was China, which is Australia’s major trading partner. The trade war between China and the US escalated after Trump imposed a total of over 60% tariffs on the Country. China has promised couter tariffs starting Thursday this week. These tariffs will significantly hurt China’s economy, pushing the Yuan lower. At the same time, the Aussies, a proxy for the Yuan will suffer. The outlook for Australia’s economy has dimmed with Trump’s latest move. As a result, market participants expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to step in and support growth. Traders are pricing a 20% chance that the central bank will implement a 50-bps rate cut in May. AUD/USD key events today Traders are not looking forward to any key releases from the US or Australia. Therefore, they will keep digesting Trump’s policy changes. AUD/USD technical outlook: Bears pause for breath at 0.6002 On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has halted its decline near the 0.6002 support level. Bears made a milestone move when they pushed the price below the 0.6200 key support level. Previously, AUD/USD was consolidating with no clear direction. The price kept chopping through the 30-SMA. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- However, a surge in momentum allowed bears to push the price well below the SMA. At the same time, the RSI dipped into the oversold region. A strong catalyst allowed bears to give the market direction. However, after such a steep move, they are exhausted and have stopped to rest near the 0.6002 key level. Here, bulls might return for a brief pullback as the SMA catches up. However, as long as the price remains below the SMA, bears will likely break below 0.6002 to reach the 0.5901 support and lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/07/aud-usd-outlook-markets-expect-massive-rba-rate-cut/
2025-04-07 08:26
The USD/JPY forecast shows solid demand for safe-haven assets like the yen. Trump announced new tariffs affecting almost all its trading partners. Market participants are pricing a higher 55% chance of a Fed rate cut in May. The USD/JPY forecast shows solid demand for safe-haven assets like the yen amid growing global economic uncertainty. Meanwhile, the dollar slipped as market participants worried about the impact of Trump’s trade policies on the economy. At the same time, the greenback faced pressure from a rise in Fed rate cut expectations. –Are you interested to learn more about South African forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The yen held steady at the start of the week as safe-haven demand remained high. Traders started flocking to Japan’s currency last week after Trump announced new tariffs affecting almost all its trading partners. As a result, worries about an escalation in trade wars dampened risk appetite. At the same time, market participants worried about the impact of these tariffs on the US economy. Most major companies depend on exports and imports. Therefore, an increase in prices will directly impact business. Moreover, the labor market might suffer as companies reduce their workers to adjust to the rising costs. Such an outcome would put pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower borrowing costs and spur growth. Currently, market participants are pricing a higher 55% chance of a rate cut in May. USD/JPY key events today Market participants do not expect any key economic releases from Japan or the US. Therefore, they will keep digesting recent US trade policy changes. USD/JPY technical forecast: Bears poised to make new lows below 145.01 On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has paused near the 145.01 support level after a steep decline. Still, the bearish bias remains strong since the price sits far below the 30-SMA with the RSI below 50. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- Bears took over from bulls when the price paused at its peaks and the RSI made a bearish divergence. As a result, USD/JPY broke below the SMA. After pulling back to retest the SMA line, the price collapsed in a steep downtrend, breaking below the 146.75 support. The decline has paused at the 145.01 level, allowing the price to retest the recently broken 146.75 level. Given the solid bearish bias, the price might soon break below 145.01 to make a new low. However, if the support holds firm, it might consolidate before breaking below the support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/07/usd-jpy-forecast-yen-soars-as-global-risk-appetite-fades/
2025-04-05 13:57
The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows tariffs threatening growth in the US and Canada. Trump’s new tariffs worsened fears about a US recession. Employment figures from Canada revealed a weak labor market. The USD/CAD weekly forecast shows tariffs threatening growth in the US and Canada, which could keep the pair in consolidation. Ups and downs of USD/CAD The USD/CAD pair had a bearish week but closed well above its lows, showing bears and bulls were almost equally matched. The decline came after Trump’s new tariffs worsened fears about a US recession. The US president put a 10% tariff on all imports, with some countries like China suffering higher levies. As a result, the dollar collapsed. –Are you interested to learn more about South African forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, it rebounded after Powell’s speech, which indicated more caution due to uncertainty regarding inflation and growth. Meanwhile, employment figures from Canada revealed a weak labor market, with poor job growth and rising unemployment. On the other hand, the US witnessed a surge in job growth and higher unemployment. Next week’s key events for USD/CAD Next week, traders will watch US reports on consumer and wholesale inflation. At the same time, the FOMC meeting minutes might contain clues on future Fed moves. The last consumer inflation report exceeded estimates, raising fears that the downtrend had paused. Another positive report will confirm the recent surge in inflation expectations and the impact of Trump’s tariffs. Such an outcome would also lower expectations for Fed rate cuts. However, market participants also worry about a likely recession, forcing the Fed to act. Therefore, the reaction to economic data might only be brief. USD/CAD weekly technical forecast: Bears attempt a takeover below the 1.4175 support On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has punctured the 1.4175 support level and made a lower low. However, the price rebounded and closed above the level. Still, the bearish bias remains intact, with the price below the 22-SMA and the RSI under 50. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- USD/CAD has primarily remained in a tight consolidation between the 1.4175 support and the 1.4500 resistance levels. In this range, bears and bulls have battled for control. The price once made a false bullish breakout before falling back into the range area. This time, bears have breached the range support. If they are ready to take charge, the price will continue lower next week. This would allow USD/CAD to retest the 1.3802 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/05/usd-cad-weekly-forecast-tariffs-cloud-economic-outlook/
2025-04-05 13:42
The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows dark clouds gathering over China’s economy. Trump imposed over 10% tariffs on all imports to the US. Data showed stronger job growth and higher unemployment in the US. The AUD/USD weekly forecast shows dark clouds gathering over China’s economy, putting pressure on the Aussie. Ups and downs of AUD/USD The AUD/USD price had a bearish week, collapsing to fresh lows as Trump’s tariffs dimmed the outlook for China’s economy. Meanwhile, although the dollar initially fell, Powell’s cautious tone supported it towards the end of the week. –Are you interested to learn more about South African forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Trump surprised markets with an aggressive move, slapping over 10% tariffs on all imports to the US. However, China has suffered the most, with over 60% tariffs on its goods. Consequently, the yuan collapsed, dragging the Aussie lower. Moreover, China promised counter-tariffs of 34% starting next week. The move added caution to Powell’s tone. Elsewhere, the RBA kept rates unchanged, and data showed stronger job growth and higher unemployment in the US. Next week’s key events for AUD/USD Next week, market participants will focus on key reports, including inflation numbers and the FOMC meeting minutes. The minutes will show what went into the decision to keep interest rates unchanged at the last meeting. Meanwhile, the CPI and PPI reports will show the state of inflation in the economy. Recently, inflation expectations have been on the rise amid Trump’s tariffs. An upbeat report will boost these expectations and keep the Fed on a cautious policy path. AUD/USD weekly technical forecast: Bearish momentum surges past the 0.6100 support On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has plunged and is trading far below the 22-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has entered the oversold region, indicating solid bearish momentum. Such a song bearish bias shows that the decline might continue next week. -If you are interested in forex day trading then have a read of our guide to getting started- Previously, the price was trading in a corrective move after the downtrend failed to go below the 0.6100 support level. However, it paused at the 0.6400 resistance level. This allowed bears to return stronger, pushing the price off the SMA. As a result, AUD/USD broke below the 0.6100 support level, making a lower low. This move confirms that bears are ready to continue the previous downtrend. Next week, bulls might return to retest the recently broken support. The downtrend will continue if it holds firm and the price continues lower. On the other hand, bulls might push the price to retest the SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/05/aud-usd-weekly-forecast-facing-headwinds-as-china-suffers/
2025-04-04 07:36
The EUR/USD price analysis is positive despite a pullback. Tariffs weaken the US dollar as fear of recession grows. Traders brace for US NFP data ahead. The EUR/USD price analysis indicates a positive trajectory for the third consecutive day, with the pair remaining above the 1.1060 area during the early European session. The global economic outlook, combined with broader dollar weakness, supports the shared currency. Traders are eyeing US NFP data ahead. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The pair pared off yesterday’s gains partially after Germany’s factory orders missed the forecast and fell to 0% against the expected 3.5%. US President Trump announced 10% baseline tariffs on all imports and a 20% levy on goods from the European Union. These tariffs are set to take effect on April 9, fueling fears of a renewed global war. This could result in a weaker dollar and a stronger yen, making the dollar a safe-haven asset. ADB Chief Economist Albert Park warned about the potential magnitude of new tariffs, which could increase the likelihood of a global recession. Park noted that current measures may push the Fed to cut rates soon. “Instead of production shifting to countries like Vietnam or Laos, these tariffs might shrink total East Asian export opportunities,” Park said. China, in particular, faces the heaviest hit with a combined 54% tariff on exports to the US, threatening its 5% growth target for the year. In response, Beijing is expected to focus more on domestic consumption and expand trade ties beyond the United States. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian economies, facing steep tariff barriers, could struggle to absorb trade redirected from China. Park also flagged potential capital outflows from the region as global investors grow wary of rising geopolitical and economic risks. Back in Europe, concerns over slowing growth were also building up. Markets have sharply increased bets on a European Central Bank (ECB) rate cut in April, with money markets pricing in an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction. While the USD’s weakness is currently propping up EUR/USD, the rising likelihood of the ECB easing may cap further gains for the euro. With the ECB and Fed facing mounting pressure to respond to the economic fallout from US trade actions, today’s jobs data could prove pivotal in shaping the next leg for EUR/USD. EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bulls retreat from overbought zone The EUR/USD price retreats from the multi-month top above 1.1100. The 4-hour chart shows two consecutive bearish pin bars, indicating a pause in the bullish momentum. However, the price is well above the pivot point at 1.1000. Breaking below the 1.1000 area may trigger a sharp sell-off, targeting 1.0920 ahead of 1.0880. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The RSI value shows a retreat from the overbought area, while the 30-period SMA is too far from the reach of sellers. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/04/eur-usd-price-analysis-bulls-take-a-breather-ahead-of-us-nfp/
