2025-03-27 08:25
The USD/CAD outlook shows traders dumping the loonie on tariff fears. An automobile tariff and a 25% levy on all imports will cloud the outlook for growth in Canada. BoC policymakers are becoming more cautious. The USD/CAD outlook shows traders dumping the loonie as tariffs on Canada loom large. Trump confirmed an automobile tariff that will impact imports from Canada. At the same time, market participants worry about the impact of a 25% tariff on Canadian imports. Nevertheless, there is still optimism after the US president said he might exempt some countries from tariffs. Since Trump took office, he has controlled the outlook for Canada’s economy, by threatening, imposing, and postponing tariffs on the country. This has caused a lot of fluctuations in the Canadian dollar. Currently, the country is battling with tariffs on steel and aluminum in the US. Moreover, an automobile tariff and a 25% levy on all imports might cloud the outlook for growth in Canada. The loonie gained in the previous session amid optimism of a softer tariff stance. This followed remarks by Trump that he would give some countries tariff breaks. Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada policy meeting minutes revealed that policymakers were becoming more cautious. They are less convinced that inflation is on a downtrend. At the same time, uncertainty over tariffs might put the central bank in a wait-and-see position. USD/CAD key events today US final GDP q/q US unemployment claims USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears meet rejection below 1.4275 On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is rebounding after a false breakout below the 1.4275 support level. However, the bias is still bearish because the price trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI under 50. Moreover, the price has reached a lower low, showing bears might be ready to test lower prices. After trading in a big range area, volatility has dropped and the price is now oscillating between the 1.4275 support and the 1.4400 resistance. Therefore, if bulls take back control, the price will break above the 30-SMA to retest the 1.4400 resistance. This would also mean a continuation of the sideways move. On the other hand, if the SMA holds firm, the price will bounce lower and make a better break of the 1.4275 support level. This would allow USD/CAD to continue a downtrend with lower lows and highs. Moreover, bears would target the 1.4175 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/27/usd-cad-outlook-loonie-struggles-as-traders-brace-for-tariffs/
2025-03-27 07:31
The GBP/USD forecast shows a weaker dollar amid growing tariff uncertainty. Data revealed a smaller-than-expected 2.8% increase in UK inflation. Rachel Reeves outlined plans to cut spending due to the weak economy. The GBP/USD forecast shows growing tariff uncertainty that is weighing on the dollar, allowing the pound to recover. Sterling was down in the previous session after downbeat inflation data and a forecast for weaker growth in the UK budget update. The dollar retreated from its highs as traders grew more anxious ahead of new Trump tariffs on April 2. Already, the US president has confirmed tariffs on automobiles that will affect major economies like the Eurozone. Moreover, market participants expect levies on pharmaceuticals and chips. Trump might also impose reciprocal tariffs and a 25% levy on goods from Canada and Mexico. All these tariffs might ignite trade wars that would hurt the US and the global economy. Meanwhile, the pound had a difficult day on Wednesday after data revealed a 2.8% increase in UK inflation. This figure came below estimates of a 3.0% increase. As a result, expectations for Bank of England rate cuts increased. Nevertheless, policymakers might remain cautious due to uncertainty over US trade policies. Additionally, the pound fell after a downbeat UK budget update. Rachel Reeves outlined plans to cut spending due to the weak economy. Forecasts revealed a sharp downgrade in economic growth and higher inflation. GBP/USD key events today US final GDP q/q US unemployment claims GBP/USD technical forecast: Bears struggle below 30-SMA On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has rebounded to retest the 30-SMA resistance. At the same time, the RSI has risen to the pivotal 50 level which has acted as support and resistance before. The bearish bias remains intact since the price trades below the SMA and the RSI is slightly under 50. However, bulls are challenging this bias. Sentiment recently shifted when the price broke below the 30-SMA. Bulls had shown weakness near the 1.3000 key psychological level, with the RSI making a bearish divergence. However, bears have not found their feet below the SMA. The price is still clinging to the SMA line, indicating a struggle between bears and bulls. A break above the SMA will allow bulls to take back control and retest the 1.3000 resistance level. On the other hand, if the SMA holds firm, the price will challenge the 1.2851 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/27/gbp-usd-forecast-tariff-jitters-weigh-on-greenback/
2025-03-26 09:56
The EUR/USD forecast shows weak price action. The US president has proposed tariffs on automobiles, chips, and pharmaceuticals. Data revealed poor consumer sentiment in the US. The EUR/USD forecast shows weak price action as traders stick to the sidelines ahead of more Trump tariffs. The pair rose only slightly after news of progress towards a ceasefire deal between Ukraine and Russia. At the same time, news of poor US consumer sentiment barely moved traders. The euro has remained in a tight range this week as all focus shifts to Trump’s April tariffs. Traders prefer to stay on the sidelines due to uncertainty over Trump’s next moves. The US president has proposed tariffs on automobiles, chips, and pharmaceuticals. At the same time, markets expect reciprocal tariffs and levies on imports from Canada and Mexico. However, reports at the start of the week indicated a softer stance, with the president willing to exempt some countries from tariffs. Still, it remains unclear which these countries are. Elsewhere, the US brokered a deal to halt sea attacks and targets on energy. This massive step towards a ceasefire deal would boost the euro. However, the price barely reacted to the news. At the same time, data in the previous session revealed poor consumer sentiment in the US. The report indicated uncertainty about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the economy. EUR/USD key events today Traders do not expect any key releases from the US or the Eurozone today. Therefore, the price might remain in thin trading. EUR/USD technical forecast: Indecision keeps price near the 1.0800 support On the technical side, the EUR/USD price remains in a tight range near the 1.0800 key support level. Moreover, the bias is bearish, with the price trading below the 30-SMA and the RSI under 50. The tight consolidation is a sign of indecision. At the same time, it is a sign that bulls and bears are battling for control. Although the price recently broke below the 30-SMA, bears still need to break below 1.0800 support to start making lower highs and lows. A bearish RSI divergence signaled a decline in bullish momentum. This also meant the trend could reverse to the downside. However, if bulls only needed a pause, they might return to retest the 1.0950 resistance level. On the other hand, if bears take charge, the price will detach from the 1.0800 and fall to revisit the 1.0602 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/26/eur-usd-forecast-traders-hesitate-before-next-round-of-tariffs/
2025-03-26 08:33
The AUD/USD price analysis shows a strong Aussie despite downbeat inflation data. Inflation in Australia increased by a smaller-than-expected 2.4% annually. Data from the previous session revealed a big decline in US consumer confidence. The AUD/USD price analysis shows a strong Australian dollar despite downbeat inflation data from Australia. The rise in the Aussie came amid dollar weakness after poor consumer confidence data. At the same time, uncertainty regarding looming tariffs is weighing on the US currency. Data on Wednesday revealed that inflation in Australia increased by 2.4% annually. Meanwhile, economists had expected the figure to remain at 2.5%. The downbeat report increased expectations for rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The RBA started its easing cycle in February but maintained a cautious tone regarding the future. More downbeat data from Australia will put pressure on policymakers to consider more rate cuts, pushing the Aussie lower. On the other hand, the US dollar started Wednesday down amid recession worries and tariff uncertainty. Data from the previous session revealed a big decline in consumer confidence, supporting recent concerns about an economic slowdown. Trump has imposed tariffs that have ignited trade wars, threatening the flow of goods between the US and its partners like China. Moreover, traders are anxiously awaiting new tariffs starting in April that might further hurt the US economy. Although Trump has assumed a softer stance, it remains unclear what he will do come April. AUD/USD key events today After Australia’s inflation report, traders do not expect any key releases today. AUD/USD technical price analysis: Bulls aiming for the 0.6390 resistance On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken above the 30-SMA after meeting a solid support at the 0.6275 level. The SMA break indicates a bullish sentiment shift that might allow the price to revisit the 0.6390 resistance level. On a larger scale, the price has mostly been moving sideways with no clear direction. Although there have been strong swings, they have remained between the 0.6200 support and the 0.6390 resistance levels. This is a sign that neither bears nor bulls are ready to commit to one direction. Therefore, although the price has broken above the 30-SMA, this bullish bias might only last until AUD/USD reaches the pivotal 0.6390 resistance level. Here, bears might resurface to push the price lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/26/aud-usd-price-analysis-aud-resilient-despite-soft-inflation-data/
2025-03-25 12:17
The GBP/USD price analysis indicates caution ahead of the UK budget reading. Data revealed that the PMI of UK services increased from 51.0 to 53.2. Data indicated a jump in business activity in the US. The GBP/USD price analysis indicates caution ahead of this week’s UK budget reading. However, the dollar remained on the front foot after upbeat US data and news of some tariff relief. On the other hand, an upbeat UK services PMI kept the pound from sliding considerably against the dollar. Market participants are eagerly awaiting a budget update from Rachel Reeves. Moreover, experts believe she will signal lower spending given the recent poor performance in the UK economy. However, an upbeat business activity report on Monday revealed some bright spots in the economy that might relieve the Finance Minister. Notably, data revealed that the services PMI increased from 51.0 to 53.2, beating estimates. The report kept the pound from falling against a broadly stronger dollar. The greenback had a strong rally after data indicated a jump in business activity in the US. The composite PMI rose from 51.6 to 53.5. The upbeat report eased fears of a recession. At the same time, demand for the dollar rose after Trump said he would exempt some countries from the April tariffs. The news helped ease trade war fears, improving sentiment. GBP/USD key events today Traders are not looking forward to any high-impact data from the UK or the US. Therefore, they will keep absorbing recent releases and US tariff developments. GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bears pause below SMA, next target at 1.2851 On the technical side, the GBP/USD price trades below the 30-SMA, with the RSI under 50, indicating a bearish bias. However, the price currently trades in a tight range. The bias recently shifted after the previous bullish trend halted near the 1.3000 key psychological level. Since the uptrend broke above the 1.2851 resistance, the price started sticking close to the SMA, indicating weaker momentum. At the same time, the RSI made a bearish divergence, signaling a looming reversal. After this divergence, bulls had little strength to challenge the 1.3000 key resistance level. As a result, bears returned to push the price below the SMA and the RSI below 50. Currently, they are targeting the 1.2851 support level. A break below this level would strengthen the bearish bias. Moreover, it would allow GBP/USD to reach the 1.2700 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/25/gbp-usd-price-analysis-traders-hold-back-ahead-of-uk-budget/
2025-03-25 08:47
The EUR/USD outlook points south as the dollar regains momentum. The US composite PMI increased from 51.6 to 53.5 in March. Trump said he might exempt some countries from tariffs. The EUR/USD outlook points south as the dollar regains momentum after upbeat data eased recession worries. Notably, business activity in the US improved in March. At the same time, Trump said he might exempt some countries from tariffs starting on April 2. Data from the previous session revealed that the US composite PMI increased from 51.6 to 53.5 in March, showing solid business activity. Most of this increase was in the services sector, where the PMI came in above estimates at 54.3. This was the first upbeat report in a while, and it boosted the dollar, leading to a decline in EUR/USD. Moreover, the dollar rebounded after reports showed that Trump’s tone on tariffs had softened. The US president said he might exempt some countries from the tariffs he proposed for April 2. Market participants expect tariffs on automobile imports and a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico. Additionally, the US might impose a reciprocal tariff on all imports to the country. The news on Trump’s softer stance eased fears of global trade wars and a US recession. However, there is still uncertainty over which countries will get this tariff relief. EUR/USD key events today Market participants are not expecting key releases from the US or the Eurozone today. Consequently, the price might move sideways. EUR/USD technical outlook: Bears may sustain below 1.0800 On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has paused near the 1.0800 key support level. Moreover, the price trades below the 30-SMA, showing bears are in the lead. Meanwhile, the RSI trades below 50, indicating solid bearish momentum. Sentiment shifted when the previous trend failed to go beyond the 1.0950 resistance level. Bulls started showing exhaustion when the price broke above the 1.0800 resistance level. The RSI made a bearish divergence that showed fading bullish momentum. At the same time, the price punctured the SMA, a sign that bears were getting stronger. Therefore, when bulls made another attempt at the 1.0950 resistance, they failed to make a higher high and instead made a double top. The RSI divergence allowed bears to take over with a break below the SMA. However, the price must break below 1.0800 to confirm a new downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/25/eur-usd-outlook-dollar-gains-as-pmis-calm-recession-fears/
