2025-03-13 10:17
The EUR/USD outlook shows growing trade tensions between the US and the Eurozone. Trump implemented a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. US inflation increased by 0.2% in February, down from 0.5%. The EUR/USD outlook shows growing trade tensions between the US and the Eurozone that are weighing on the euro. However, soft US inflation figures have also pressured the dollar, putting a floor on euro declines. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- On Wednesday, Trump implemented a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, affecting major economies like Canada and the US. Both countries were ready to respond immediately with counter-tariffs. However, these trade wars will have a lasting impact on these economies, weakening their currencies. As a result, the euro eased slightly from its 5-month peak. The dollar was also fragile as market participants feared a likely US recession due to the ongoing trade wars. Economic data has already signaled weaker demand. Moreover, inflation data on Wednesday came in below estimates. The monthly figure increased by 0.2%, down from 0.5%. Meanwhile, the annual figure increased by 2.8%, down from 3.0%. If inflation has resumed its downtrend, policymakers will gain confidence that it will reach the 2% target. As a result, Fed rate cut bets increased, pushing the dollar down. However, the path of inflation will also depend on Trump’s trade policies. As Powell noted last week, there was no rush to lower borrowing costs. EUR/USD key events today US core PPI m/m US PPI m/m US unemployment claims EUR/USD technical outlook: Price tests the 30-SMA support On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has fallen to retest the 30-SMA support. However, the bias is bullish since the price is still above the SMA and the RSI is above 50. Bulls have maintained a steep rally until the price reached the 1.0901 resistance level. Here, price action showed a rejection of higher prices. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- At the same time, the RSI made a bearish divergence, indicating weaker momentum. This allowed bears to resurface and retest the 30-SMA support. If the price needs a deeper correction, it will break below the SMA, likely dropping to the 1.0701 support. After this, bulls could return to seek new highs above 1.0901. Another possibility is that the price will bounce off the 30-SMA to seek a new high and continue the uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/13/eur-usd-outlook-us-eu-trade-tensions-pause-euro-rally/
2025-03-13 08:25
The USD/CAD forecast shows a weaker dollar. Data in the previous session revealed softer-than-expected US consumer inflation. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25-bps on Wednesday, as expected. The USD/CAD forecast shows increased bearish momentum after downbeat US inflation data. At the same time, the Canadian dollar strengthened after a cautious tone during the BoC policy meeting. Moreover, support came from reports of Canada’s counter-tariffs on Trump’s steel and aluminum duties. Data in the previous session revealed softer-than-expected consumer inflation in the US in February. The CPI increased by 0.2%, a significant drop from the previous reading of 0.5%. Moreover, it was smaller than the forecast of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the annual figure increased by 2.8%, missing estimates of 2.9%. The downbeat numbers increase pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. A slowdown in the economy plus softer inflation is enough motivation for policymakers to cut interest rates. As a result, rate cut expectations rose, hurting the dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25-bps on Wednesday, as expected. However, the governor said the central bank would proceed with caution due to the uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariffs. Consequently, the loonie gained. Elsewhere, Trump’s tariff on steel and aluminum imports ignited a trade war with Canada and Europe. Canada is a major exporter of steel and aluminum to the US. USD/CAD key events today US core PPI m/m US PPI m/m US unemployment claims USD/CAD technical forecast: Oscillating in the 1.4301-1.4501 range On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is oscillating between the 1.4301 support and the 1.4501 resistance levels. Bears and bulls are battling for control, with each showing strength in this range area. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Currently, the price trades in the middle of the range. It has broken below the SMA and the RSI has dropped below 50. This is a sign that bears are trying to retest the range support. However, bulls are threatening to push the price back above the SMA. If bears maintain control, the price will soon reach the 1.4301 support level. A break below this level will indicate a bearish win, starting a downtrend. On the other hand, if the price goes back above the SMA, it will revisit the 1.4501 resistance. A break above this level will signal the start of a bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/13/usd-cad-forecast-dollar-eases-on-soft-us-inflation-figures/
2025-03-12 12:48
The USD/JPY forecast shows a pullback in the yen. Trump’s tariff on steel and aluminium imports came into effect on Wednesday. Traders are looking forward to the US CPI report. The USD/JPY forecast shows a pullback in the yen as the focus shifts to the impact of Trump’s tariffs on Japan’s export-reliant economy. At the same time, fears of the US recession kept the dollar under pressure. However, the greenback rebounded ahead of the US CPI report to gauge the outlook for Fed rate cuts. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The yen pulled back from recent highs as Trump maintained his aggressive stance on tariffs. On Wednesday, his tariff on steel and aluminium imports came into effect, igniting a trade war with the Eurozone. This has also shone a light on the looming reciprocal tariff. Trump’s tariffs will significantly impact the global economy. This includes Japan’s export-reliant economy. As a result, demand for the yen eased on Wednesday. Investors are seeking safety in other assets like gold. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan remains hawkish on policy. Companies in Japan agreed to more wage hikes on Wednesday, setting in place the right conditions for rate hikes. As a result, market participants expect more rate hikes this year. However, the next move might come in May. Meanwhile, traders are looking forward to the US CPI report. Economists expect inflation to increase by 0.3%, lower than the previous reading of 0.5%. Meanwhile, the annual figure might ease to 2.9%. USD/JPY key events today US Core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y USD/JPY technical forecast: Bulls approach the 149.00 resistance On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above the 30-SMA, indicating a bullish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has broken above 50, indicating stronger bullish momentum. This shift came after the RSI made a bullish divergence. While the price made a lower low, the RSI made a higher one, showing weaker momentum. This allowed bulls to return to the market. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the price has to break above the 149.00 resistance level to confirm a new bullish trend. Moreover, it must start making higher highs and lows. On the other hand, if the 149.00 resistance holds firm, USD/JPY will return to retest the 147.00 support. A break below this level will make a lower low, confirming a continuation of the previous downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/12/usd-jpy-forecast-yen-slips-on-potential-tariff-impacts/
2025-03-12 09:15
The EUR/USD price analysis shows renewed optimism about a likely ceasefire deal to end the Ukraine war. Trump’s tariff on steel and aluminum came into effect on Wednesday. Market participants are looking forward to US inflation figures. The EUR/USD price analysis shows renewed optimism of a likely ceasefire deal to end the Ukraine war that has boosted the euro. On the other hand, the dollar remained weak amid recession worries. Trump’s 25% tariff on steel and aluminum goods came into effect on Wednesday, putting a lid on euro gains. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Reports that Ukraine is ready to accept a ceasefire deal with Russia increased demand for the euro. For weeks, the US has tried to bring the two countries together in an agreement to end the war. A ceasefire will be another event that will improve the outlook for the Eurozone economy. Last week, Germany announced a euro fund for infrastructure and security that has propelled the euro. Increased spending will not only be good for the economy but also reheat inflation. On the other hand, the dollar was frail as yet another Trump tariff came into effect on Wednesday. The 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports will affect many economies, including the Eurozone. Moreover, the Eurozone imposed counter-tariffs that will also hurt the US economy. Trade wars between the US and its partners have raised the risk of a recession. Meanwhile, market participants are looking forward to US inflation figures, which will shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. EUR/USD key events today US Core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y EUR/USD technical price analysis: Rally slows down around 1.09 On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has continued higher, puncturing the 1.0901 resistance level. The price trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI near the overbought region. Therefore, the bullish bias is strong. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, when the price broke above 1.0901, it made small-bodied candles with a large wick. This shows the rejection of higher prices. At the same time, while the price made higher highs, the RSI fell, indicating a bearish divergence. Bears might return for a deep pullback or a reversal if bullish momentum is fading. This means the price will likely break below the 30-SMA to retest the 1.0701 support level. The trend will reverse if the price starts making lower highs and lows. Otherwise, bulls will return to seek a new high above 1.0901. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/12/eur-usd-price-analysis-rallies-on-hopes-for-ukraine-peace-deal/
2025-03-11 10:02
The GBP/USD price analysis shows solid bullish momentum. The dollar has remained fragile amid worries about a likely US recession. Traders expect at least three Fed rate cuts this year. The GBP/USD price analysis shows solid bullish momentum as the pound holds near recent peaks due to dollar weakness. The sterling has maintained a bullish rally since the start of March as the dollar collapsed due to US economic worries. At the same time, market participants expect the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged next week. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The dollar has remained fragile amid worries about a likely US recession due to Trump’s tariffs. The US president caused market turmoil last week by implementing new tariffs and suspending some. Traders are worried that his aggressive approach will spark trade wars that will cause an economic slowdown in the US. Decreased trade between the US and its partners means local companies suffer. If this happens, other parts of the economy will decline like the labor sector and consumer spending. At the same time, recent US data has revealed slower demand, raising expectations for Fed rate cuts this year. On Friday, data showed slower job growth and higher unemployment in February. As a result, traders expect at least three Fed rate cuts this year. The upcoming inflation report will keep shaping this outlook. On the other hand, market participants expect the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged next week amid the recent economic recovery. GBP/USD key events today JOLTS Job Openings GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bullish momentum pauses after a steep climb On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has met a solid hurdle at the 1.2951 level. However, the price still trades above the 30-SMA, with the RSI above 50, indicating a bullish bias. The price rose steeply after breaking above the pivotal 1.2701 resistance level. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the rally has slowed down, and bullish momentum is fading. Price action is confined to a tight range. At the same time, the RSI has made a bearish divergence, suggesting a likely reversal. If bears are ready to take control, the price will break below the 30-SMA and fall to retest the 1.2701 support. On the other hand, if bullish momentum remains strong, the price will soon break above the 1.2951 resistance. Such a move would clear the path to the 1.3100 key psychological level and a new high in the bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/11/gbp-usd-price-analysis-dollar-weakness-strengthens-sterling/
2025-03-11 08:29
The AUD/USD outlook suggests weak risk appetite. Trump has assumed an aggressive approach to tariffs, threatening the US economy. Market participants will focus on US inflation data for more clues on Fed rate cuts. The AUD/USD outlook suggests weak risk appetite as Trump’s tariffs drive fears of a US recession. Consequently, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar fell as traders preferred safer currencies like the yen. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Initially, the Australian dollar rallied against the dollar after a downbeat US employment data. Friday’s jobs report increased expectations of Fed rate cuts this year. Moreover, it briefly shifted the market focus from Trump’s tariffs. However, as the new week started, jitters about a US recession due to trade wars returned. Trump has assumed an aggressive approach to tariffs, threatening the US and other major economies like Canada and China. Last week, the US president added tariffs to China, dimming the outlook for the economy. As a result, the yuan collapsed, pulling the Australian dollar as well. The trade war between China and the US will keep weighing on the Aussie, a proxy for the yuan. This week, market participants will focus on US inflation data for more clues on Fed rate cuts. Economists expect a slight easing, with the monthly figure easing from 0.5% to 0.3%. Meanwhile, the annual figure might come in softer at 2.9%. Softer-than-expected figures will solidify expectations for rate cuts this year, further weighing on the dollar. On the other hand, an upbeat report might ease pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. AUD/USD key events today JOLTS Job Openings AUD/USD technical outlook: Bears eye the 0.6200 support level On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken below the 30-SMA, indicating a bearish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has broken below 50, indicating stronger bearish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Initially, bulls had taken charge when the price paused at the 0.6200 support level. The RSI showed that bears were weak as it made a bullish divergence. However, they failed to break past the 0.6350 resistance level after the takeover. However, bulls have time to resume the rally by breaking above 0.6350 to make a higher high. On the other hand, if bears remain in the lead, the price will soon reach the 0.6200 support level. A break below this level will confirm a downtrend as it would make a lower low. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/11/aud-usd-outlook-risk-appetite-dips-as-economic-worries-mount/
