2025-04-04 06:50
The USD/CAD outlook remains vulnerable after tariffs. US NFP and Canadian jobs data are due today. The Fed Chair’s speech is important to watch for monetary policy clues. The USD/CAD outlook remains deteriorated as the pair heads for a fourth consecutive losing day on Friday. The price is hovering around 1.4100 before hitting 4-month lows. The US dollar has continued to struggle since the imposition of tariffs. Moving ahead, investors are bracing for the release of the US NFP data for March. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Market sentiment remains vulnerable following the announcement of new tariffs, including a baseline tariff of 10% on most imported goods and higher rates for imports from major trade partners such as China, Japan, and the European Union. The protectionist policies have triggered fears of a global recession and cast fresh doubts on the Fed’s rate cuts. The New York session is likely to see high volatility as US NFP data approaches. The economists forecast an increase of 135,000 jobs in March, down from February’s 151,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%, while wage growth is expected to slow from the previous 4.0% to 3.8%. In the lead-up to the report, the jobs market data is overall mixed. The US ADP report showed a significant rise of 155,000 jobs from February’s 84,000 jobs. On the other hand, job openings in Feb slipped to 7.56 million, the lowest since Sep 2024. The NFP data can influence the Fed’s next move. The central bank maintained rates at the March meeting but signaled two potential rate cuts this year due to an economic slowdown and uncertainty following Trump’s tariffs. The Fed Chair emphasized caution while being prepared to ease if necessary. From Canada, the risk sentiment is cautious. Canadian PM Carney reiterated the country’s retaliatory tariffs and hinted at imposing auto tariffs against the US. Meanwhile, crude oil prices remain under pressure, limiting gains in the CAD. Traders remain sidelined as jobs data from Both Canada and the US are due with Powell’s speech later today. A disappointing NFP print of under 120k can further ignite bearish sentiment. Contrarily, a strong figure above 150k could help the greenback gain its footing. USD/CAD technical outlook: Bears stall above 1.4000 The 4-hour chart shows some signs of recovery for the pair. The RSI is slowly rising from the oversold zone, forming a pin bar pattern, which reveals a temporary stall in the bearish momentum. However, the 30-period SMA is near 1.4250, which is quite far from current levels. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The major level for the sellers is 1.4000, which, if broken, can lead to 1.3925 and 1.3900. On the upside, 1.4100 is the immediate resistance followed by a support-turned resistance at 1.4240 confluence with 30-period SMA. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/04/usd-cad-outlook-trade-jitters-nfp-to-retain-selling-pressure/
2025-04-03 06:33
The gold price remains strongly bullish with a minor correction. Trump tariffs raise the demand for gold as investors flee to safe-haven. Traders now eye US ISM Services PMI and US NFP data for further clarity. The gold price posted fresh all-time highs on Thursday as investors fled to safe-haven assets following US President Trump’s escalated trade tariffs. The recent move imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports and more on major trading partners, fueling global trade tension and uncertainty in the markets. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Spot gold touched all-time highs at $3,167 before shedding gains and settling in the $3,130 area. Despite the corrective downside, the precious metal retains its upward trajectory and has gained 19% year-to-date. The recent round of tariffs could slow down US economic growth, raising the likelihood of the Fed cuts in the near future. According to Kyle Rodda, an analyst at Capital.com, “One of the key factors pushing gold higher is the potential slowdown in the economy that could raise odds of aggressive rate cuts.” Moreover, the City Index analyst Mat Simpson said that the bullish momentum will continue until markets see a significant shakeout that stuns both bulls and bears. Traders now anticipate that after aggressive trade policies, the central banks will move away from the US dollar-denominated assets towards holding more gold. Moreover, the Federal Reserve is expected to ease monetary policy to cushion the economy impacted by trade policies. Hence, the greenback can further drift lower, giving a further boost to the yellow metal. Economic Data and Upcoming Events The US labor market shows resilience with private payrolls rose to 155k in March against the expected 105k. However, the economists caution that signs of labor market cooling are emerging, especially as businesses brace for a slower growth in the coming months. Investors are now preparing for the upcoming US ISM Services PMI and US NFP. The reports will provide further insight to the US economy and influence the Fed’s policy outlook. Gold price technical analysis: Pullback after a strong rally The gold price erased some of earlier session gains, falling back to $3,130 area from the fresh all-time highs. The price is near the orderblock zone which acts as a strong support. The price is well bid above the 30-period SMA despite a pullback. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The RSI value has dropped from the overbought zone to 56.0 level, which suggests the buyers can emerge again anytime as the major trend has not yet changed. The metal can test $3,100 level is further profit-taking is seen. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/03/gold-price-hits-record-high-amid-us-tariff-shock-eyes-on-nfp/
2025-04-03 05:36
The USD/JPY outlook remains strongly bearish after Trump’s tariffs. BoJ and Fed divergence, along with falling US yields, lend more support to the yen. Tariffs pose a threat to Japan’s export-driven economy as well, igniting further uncertainty. The USD/JPY outlook is predominantly bearish as the yen capitalizes on safe-haven appeal due to President Trump’s sweeping trade tariffs. The pair plummeted 1.2%, marking fresh 3-week lows near 147.20 during the early Asian session. With mounting fears of a US recession, investors are fleeing to the JPY, reinforcing its strength against the US dollar. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Riskier assets saw a broader sell-off after the latest round of Trump’s tariffs. The stocks slipped, and bond yields dipped, creating a demand for conventional safe-haven assets. The US 10Y hit a YTD low at 4.0%, reinforcing the potential for a Fed rate cut. The ongoing divergence between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan further fueled the JPY rally. While the Fed is widely expected to cut rates, BoJ remains uncertain. Previously, market participants were expecting an aggressive stance from BoJ. However, Japan’s export-driven economy may suffer as a result of recent tariffs. Still, the recent Tokyo consumer inflation figures suggest that the BoJ may retain its hawkish stance. Despite Trump’s tariffs favoring the US dollar in the long run, the likelihood of a rate cut and the risk of a recession has undermined the Greenback. According to Wells Fargo analysts, monetary easing is expected to be more pronounced in 2025-26, which could keep the dollar defensive. Key Events for USD/JPY Looking ahead, traders will primarily focus on the following: Weekly jobless claims ISM Services PMI Still, the broader focus remains on trade development and China’s potential reaction. USD/JPY technical outlook: Sellers looking at 146.55 The USD/JPY 4-hour chart shows a gloomy picture. The price is slipping towards the key support level at 146.55. The pair lies well below the 30-period SMA, posing a risk of a deeper downside. However, the RSI value reaches 30.0, which indicates an oversold zone. Hence, corrective upside can be expected. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- On the upside, the 30-period SMA is one tough nut to crack for the buyers. Meanwhile, a strong resistance level emerges at 151.15. The path of least resistance lies on the downside. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/03/usd-jpy-outlook-slumps-to-3-week-low-after-trump-tariffs/
2025-04-02 14:41
The GBP/USD forecast is mixed amid tariff uncertainty. Volatility may spike as tariffs could be imposed relentlessly. Easing UK wage growth boosts BoE’s dovish stance. The GBP/USD forecast remains elevated as the US dollar stays weak on Wednesday. The pair wobbled around 1.2950 during the New York session. The heat from reciprocal tariffs continues to affect the US dollar. The DXY has dropped to 104.00, reflecting the market jitters. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- Trump’s policies continue to stir sentiment, with April 02 named “Liberation Day” for the US economy. According to a White House representative, the fresh levies will take effect immediately after the announcement. Market participants suggest a tariff of up to 20% on most American imports. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stresses that the administration aims to impose the maximum tariffs on major trading allies. However, countries willing to ease non-trade barriers may receive concessions. Risk aversion is expected to surge on the day. Moreover, Trump has proposed redistributing tariffs to US households through refunds or tax dividends that could fuel inflationary pressure. Hence, the Fed may retain its restrictive stance for an extended period. The ADP report was upbeat. A whopping 155k jobs were added in March, against an expected 105k, while the previous reading was 84k. This signals a resilient US labor market, reinforcing a delayed rate cut. The pound trades cautiously ahead of Trump’s tariff announcement. Concerns over global trade disruptions and a potential slowdown in economic growth have dampened investor sentiment. The UK economy is particularly vulnerable, with the Office for Business Responsibility (OBR) warning that Trump’s policies could deplete the UK government’s fiscal buffer and shrink the economy by up to 1%. Additionally, delays in finalizing a UK-US economic deal beyond the so-called “Liberation Day” have created further uncertainty. There is speculation that the terms of the agreement could be revised post-announcement, adding to investor apprehension. On the domestic front, easing wage growth in the UK adds to dovish expectations for the Bank of England (BoE). The Incomes Data Research (IDR) reported that median pay growth slowed to 3.5% in the three months to February, the lowest in three years. This suggests employers are holding back on wage hikes in response to higher National Insurance (NI) contributions introduced in the Autumn Statement by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves. GBP/USD Technical Forecast: No clear bias The 4-hour chart for the GBP/USD shows a perplexing scenario. The prices remain locked in a tight range under 1.2950. The volume bars are positive for the buyers. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the recent bearish candle also had a high volume. This indicates that the market is volatile but indecisive. The key level on the upside remains 1.3000, which may cap the gains, while 1.2900 is tough support to break. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/02/gbp-usd-forecast-pound-gains-amid-us-tariff-uncertainty/
2025-04-02 10:36
The USD/CAD price analysis indicates renewed hopes of tariff relief in Canada. Some US senators are ready to block Trump’s proposed tariff on Canada. US data revealed weaker-than-expected business activity in the manufacturing sector. The USD/CAD price analysis indicates renewed hopes of tariff relief in Canada, which is supporting the loonie. US lawmakers are trying to stop Trump from imposing a 25% blanket tariff on Canadian imports. At the same time, the dollar remained frail after downbeat US economic data in the previous session. Some US senators are ready to block Trump’s proposed tariff on Canadian imports. Such an outcome would lift the economy’s clouded outlook and allow the Bank of Canada to continue its easing cycle as planned. Nevertheless, market participants also expect a reciprocal tariff that will impact many countries that trade with the US. These tariffs might also escalate the global trade war and reignite inflation, especially in the US. The dollar fell on Tuesday after data revealed weaker-than-expected business activity in the manufacturing sector. The ISM PMI fell from 50.3 to 49.0. Meanwhile, economists had expected the index to drop to 49.5. A separate report showed a bigger-than-expected drop in job vacancies, indicating weaker demand for labor. The downbeat data raised fears of a slowdown in the US economy. Additionally, it increased pressure on the Fed to consider rate cuts. However, market participants and policymakers are more focused on Trump’s speech and the looming NFP report. USD/CAD key events today US ADP nonfarm employment change USD/CAD technical price analysis: Bears retest recently broken trendline On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has collapsed after meeting the 1.4400 resistance level. As a result, the price has dropped back below the 30-SMA, and the RSI is under 50, supporting a bearish bias. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The price recently broke above a solid resistance trendline, indicating a bullish sentiment shift. It was also a sign that bulls were ready to reverse the trend. However, the price has pulled back to retest the recently broken trendline. If bulls return, USD/CAD will retest the 1.4400 resistance level. A break above would make a higher high, confirming a new bullish trend. On the other hand, if bulls are not strong enough to reverse the trend, USD/CAD will retest the 1.4250 support level. A break below this level will confirm a continuation of the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/02/usd-cad-price-analysis-tariff-relief-hopes-lift-canadian-dollar/
2025-04-01 12:26
The USD/JPY price analysis shows a rebound in the safe-haven yen. Data on Tuesday revealed poor business sentiment among Japanese manufacturers. The dollar drifted on Tuesday, ahead of the start of new tariffs. The USD/JPY price analysis shows a rebound in the safe-haven yen as traders increasingly worry about the looming Trump tariffs. However, trading remained thin as the dollar drifted amid uncertainty over the upcoming tariffs. Meanwhile, data from Japan revealed poor business sentiment amid the escalating global trade war. -Are you looking for the best AI Trading Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The yen has benefitted greatly from the uncertainty that has come with Trump’s tariff campaigns. Its safe-haven nature has allowed it to gain when most other currencies have collapsed. However, Japan is not an island when it comes to trade. The ongoing global trade will have a negative impact on Japan’s export-reliant economy. As a result, recent gains in the yen have been short-lived. Traders are increasingly worried about the economy and what it will mean for BoJ rate hikes. Notably, data on Tuesday revealed poor business sentiment among Japanese manufacturers in the three months to March. This was an early sign that the global trade tensions will impact Japan. On the other hand, the dollar drifted on Tuesday, ahead of the start of new tariffs. Market participants remain uncertain about which countries will suffer the levies and its impact on their economies. At the same time, fears of stagnation in the US have dampened appetite for the US currency. USD/JPY key events today ISM Manufacturing PMI JOLTS Job Openings USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bears gear up for a new low On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is bouncing lower after retesting the 30-SMA resistance and the recently broken channel line. The price has remained below the SMA with the RSI under 50, suggesting a bearish bias. -Are you looking for the best MT5 Brokers? Check our detailed guide- The price recently broke below its bullish channel support, indicating a surge in bullish momentum. However, before continuing lower, it rebounded to retest the recently broken level. From there, bears must return to make a lower low and confirm a new downtrend. If this happens, the price will reach lower support levels, including the 148.25 and 146.75. On the other hand, bulls will take back control if the price fails to make a lower low. In this case, USD/JPY would break above the 30-SMA and the 151.01 resistance to make a new high and continue the bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/04/01/usd-jpy-price-analysis-yen-rebounds-as-tariff-fears-mount/
