2025-03-06 09:54

The EUR/USD outlook shows solid bullish momentum. More spending in the Eurozone will likely heat inflation. The European Central Bank will likely cut rates by 25-bps. The EUR/USD outlook shows solid bullish momentum as market participants keep digesting the impacts of Germany’s 500 billion euro fund. Meanwhile, the dollar remained weak after news of a partial pause in tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The euro rallied to a four-month high on Thursday, extending the previous session’s rally. The outlook for the Eurozone economy brightened after Germany announced a 500 billion euro infrastructure fund. Top officials are ready to change borrowing rules to achieve this. More spending in the Eurozone will likely heat inflation, forcing the European Central Bank to pause its rate cuts. Consequently, bond yields soared. However, market participants are gearing up for the ECB policy meeting. The central bank will likely cut rates by 25-bps. Moreover, traders will focus on the messaging after the meeting for clues on future moves. A dovish meeting might pause the current rally. On the other hand, a cautious tone will propel EUR/USD higher. Meanwhile, news that Trump had paused some tariffs on Canada and Mexico weakened the dollar. The US paused tariffs on automakers in Canada and Mexico, raising hopes of further negotiations. EUR/USD key events today Euro Summit Main Refinancing Rate Monetary Policy Statement ECB Press Conference US Unemployment Claims EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls extend rally but near exhaustion levels On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has continued its steep rally past the 1.0701 key level. The price now trades well above the 30-SMA, with the RSI deep in the overbought region. Therefore, the bullish bias is strong. However, the move up has been steep, with no pauses or pullbacks. Thus, bulls might be getting exhausted. A pause or a pullback might come at the nearest resistance to allow bulls to rest. In such a case, the price would enter a period of consolidation or pull back to retest the 30-SMA. If bulls remain in the lead, the price will continue higher after a pause. However, if bulls are too weak to continue higher, the price will break below the 30-SMA to indicate a bearish shift in sentiment. For now, the uptrend will continue as long as the price stays above the SMA and the RSI above 50. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/06/eur-usd-outlook-germanys-e500-billion-fund-drives-euro-gains/

2025-03-06 08:07

The USD/CAD forecast shows some relief for the Canadian dollar. Trump excluded automakers in Canada from the 25% tariff for a month. Market participants worried about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the US economy. The USD/CAD forecast shows some relief for the Canadian dollar as market participants expect a tariff relief on Canada. At the same time, the currency got support as the US dollar fell due to a dimmer outlook for the US economy. The Canadian dollar has collapsed since Trump implemented a 25% tariff on Canadian imports. The outlook for Canada’s economy and monetary policy shifted, with experts predicting tough times ahead. This would force the Bank of Canada to assume a more aggressive stance on rate cuts. However, there was relief on Wednesday after a phone call from the US to Canada. According to reports, Trump said Canada had yet to meet the conditions to pause tariffs. However, he later softened his stance, excluding automakers from the tariff for a month. This was also a sign that the two countries could negotiate better trading deals to avoid a prolonged trade war. Elsewhere, the greenback fell as market participants worried about the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the US economy. Already, data has shown a slowdown that has increased rate cut expectations. The ongoing trade wars will eventually hurt the economy. At the same time, tariffs might reheat inflation, forcing the Fed to keep rates elevated. Meanwhile, US data on Wednesday revealed slower-than-expected private job growth. On the other hand, business activity in the services sector rebounded. USD/CAD key events today US unemployment claims USD/CAD technical forecast: Bearish engulfed turns the table On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has reversed after peaking near the 1.4501 resistance level. The price now sits far below the 30-SMA, showing bears are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI trades below 50, indicating solid bearish momentum. The previous bullish trend paused when the price neared the 1.4501 resistance level. While the price made higher highs, the RSI made lower ones. This created a bearish divergence that signaled weaker momentum and a looming reversal. Soon after, the price made a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern that pushed USD/CAD below the 30-SMA. Bears are now facing the 1.4301 support level. Here, bulls might return to retest the 30-SMA. If it holds firm, the downtrend will continue below 1.4301. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/06/usd-cad-forecast-greenback-weighed-by-tariff-relief-hopes/

2025-03-05 10:11

The EUR/USD forecast shows renewed optimism about the Eurozone economy. Germany announced plans to create a 500 billion euro fund. The dollar pulled back on Tuesday after Trump’s tariffs ignited trade wars. The EUR/USD forecast shows renewed optimism about the Eurozone economy after Germany announced plans to revive growth. As a result, the euro gained sharply against the dollar. At the same time, the greenback suffered as the outlook for the US economy dimmed amid Trump’s trade policies. On Tuesday, Germany announced plans to create a 500 billion euro fund for infrastructure and security. At the same time, the country plans to change its borrowing rules completely. These plans have brightened the outlook for growth in the Eurozone economy, boosting the euro. At the same time, the euro found support from a minerals deal between the US and Ukraine. Trump and Zelenskiy have had a difficult time agreeing on anything. This had dimmed hopes of a peace deal with Russia to end the war. However, the deal on Tuesday revived hopes that the two leaders could work together with Putin to end the Ukraine war with a peace deal. Meanwhile, market participants looked forward to the European Central Bank policy meeting. Economists expect policymakers to cut rates by 25-bps. On the other hand, the dollar pulled back on Tuesday after Trump’s tariffs ignited trade wars. These wars will negatively impact global and US growth. EUR/USD key events today ADP Non-Farm Employment Change ISM Services PMI EUR/USD technical forecast: Sharp rally meets the 1.0701 key level On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has made a sharp, bullish move, breaking above the 1.0500 key resistance level. The price trades far above the 30-SMA while the RSI is overbought, indicating solid bullish momentum. Previously, EUR/USD had paused its rally after failing to break above the 1.0500 resistance level. Bulls made several attempts at the level but could not break above. However, after a deep pullback, the price finally broke above the resistance, rallying to the 1.0701 key level. The bullish move was so steep, leaving the SMA well below. The bulls might need to pause after such a strong move and let the SMA catch up. In this case, the 1.0701 level acts as a strong resistance, prompting a pause or pullback. However, if bulls are still strong, EUR/USD might break past the current resistance to reach 1.0800. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/05/eur-usd-forecast-eu-outlook-weaker-dollar-boost-euro/

2025-03-05 08:33

The AUD/USD price analysis shows a strong performance in Australia’s economy. Australia’s economy expanded by 0.6% quarterly. Market participants worried about the outlook for the US economy. The AUD/USD price analysis shows a strong performance in Australia’s economy, easing pressure on the RBA to lower borrowing costs. Meanwhile, there was increased volatility, and the dollar fell as Trump ignited trade wars with new tariffs and threats of more. Data on Wednesday revealed that Australia’s economy expanded by 0.6% quarterly, well above the previous reading of 0.3%. This is a sign that demand remains strong. As a result, the Australian dollar rebounded from recent lows. Policymakers can relax as inflation slowly drops. However, after years of pausing, the Reserve Bank of Australia implemented its first rate cut in February. The move showed confidence among policymakers that inflation is under control. As a result, market participants expect more rate cuts. Elsewhere, the dollar eased from the previous session’s peaks as market participants worried about the outlook for the US economy. On Tuesday, Trump implemented a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico. Moreover, he added a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and promised more tariffs to start in April. These duties have ignited trade wars, with countries vowing to respond appropriately. As a result, the outlook for the global economy has dimmed. The US economy will also suffer. Meanwhile, market participants are looking forward to US employment data. The report will give more clues on the outlook for Fed rate cuts. AUD/USD key events today ADP Nonfarm employment change ISM services PMI AUD/USD technical price analysis: Double bottom, RSI divergence On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken above the 30-SMA after reversing at the 0.6200 support level. The price now trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50, suggesting a strong bullish bias. The previous decline halted when AUD/USD reached the 0.6200 support level. Here, the price made a double bottom plus a bullish RSI divergence, indicating weaker momentum. As a result, bulls emerged with a solid candle and broke above the 30-SMA resistance. However, the price must now face the 0.6300 resistance level. A break above will solidify the bullish bias. On the other hand, if bears return at this level, the price will likely fall below the SMA to retest the 0.6200 support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/05/aud-usd-price-analysis-australias-economy-powers-ahead/

2025-03-04 09:09

The USD/JPY price analysis shows increased safe-haven demand for the yen. Investors panicked as tariffs on Canada and Mexico came into effect. More speculators are bullish on the yen. The USD/JPY price analysis shows increased safe-haven demand for the yen as market participants worry about a likely global trade war due to Trump’s tariffs. At the same time, the yen remained strong on increasing expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes. Last week, Trump confirmed the start of a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico in March. On Tuesday, investors panicked as the tariffs came into effect. Moreover, Trump imposed an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The new tariffs have raised the likelihood of a global trade war, pushing investors into safer assets like the yen. If this trend continues, Japan’s currency will keep climbing. At the same time, the yen gained as data revealed that more speculators are bullish on the currency. The tides have changed for Japan’s economy. Inflation has increased, and consumption is at a healthier level. As a result, Bank of Japan policymakers have assumed a more hawkish tone. Meanwhile, market participants are expecting more rate hikes this year. On the other hand, the dollar held steady against most peers as Treasury yields soared on Trump’s new tariffs. Market participants also focused on data from the previous session, showing a slight easing in manufacturing business activity in the US. USD/JPY key events today Market participants do not expect any high-impact reports from the US or Japan. Therefore, they will focus on developments in US trade policies. USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bears challenge 149.00, aiming for a lower low On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has paused its decline at the 149.00 support level. The price trades below the 30-SMA, showing bears are in the lead. At the same time, the RSI trades below 50, indicating solid bearish momentum. The first time, USD/JPY paused at the 149.00 support, bulls emerged and broke above the 30-SMA to reach the 151.00 resistance. However, they failed to break above this level, allowing bears to return to the market with an engulfing candle. The price soon returned to the 149.00 support. Given the strong bearish bias, USD/JPY will likely soon break below the 149.00 level to make a lower low. Such an outcome would clear the path to the 147.00 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/04/usd-jpy-price-analysis-traders-flee-to-yen-amid-trade-war/

2025-03-04 07:55

The USD/CAD outlook shows widening fears of trade wars. Trump’s 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico took effect Tuesday. The US president imposed an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The USD/CAD outlook shows widening fears of trade wars after Trump implemented tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. The fears have pushed traders to buy the safe-haven dollar. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar has collapsed to a one-month low on the prospects of a weaker economy and lower borrowing costs. Trump’s 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico came into effect on Tuesday, raising fears of trade wars between these nations. At the same time, the US president imposed an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. Canada has promised retaliatory tariffs on US imports that could increase tensions between the two countries. The 25% tariff will significantly impact Canada’s economy as the country exports nearly 75% of its goods to the US. The Bank of Canada has worked tirelessly to spur the fragile economy with lower borrowing costs. Moreover, recent economic data has shown a rebound. Therefore, Trump’s tariff will undo most of this work, forcing the BoC to assume a more aggressive stance on rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened along with Treasury yields as market participants sought safety due to trade war fears. Manufacturing PMI data in the previous session had little impact on the currency as it aligned with expectations. USD/CAD key events today Market participants do not expect any key economic reports today. Therefore, they will keep digesting the impacts of Trump’s tariffs. USD/CAD technical outlook: Price breaks past 0.5 Fib, eying 1.4600 On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has bounced off the 30-SMA with a massive bullish candle, indicating a surge in momentum. Moreover, the price has broken above the 0.5 Fib level that had previously acted as a solid resistance. This level allowed the price to retest the 1.4400 support level. USD/CAD can now climb to the next resistance at the 1.4600 level. If the bullish bias remains, the uptrend will continue past 1.4600. However, the RSI has reached the overbought region several times and has shown some weakness. Bulls might be exhausted after the steep climb from the 1.1.4150 support level. Therefore, the price might pause at the next resistance as bulls rest. Moreover, after such a sharp rally, the price might pause for long or consolidate before it continues higher. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/04/usd-cad-outlook-trade-tensions-escalate-with-new-tariffs/