2025-03-14 08:19
The GBP/USD price analysis indicates a weaker UK economy. Data revealed a 0.1% contraction in the UK economy. Market participants expect the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged next week. The GBP/USD price analysis indicates a weaker UK economy after data revealed an unexpected contraction. Meanwhile, market participants are grappling with the escalating global trade tensions as Trump continues his aggressive policy changes. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The pound pulled back on Friday after data revealed a 0.1% contraction in the UK economy. This followed an expansion of 0.4%. Economists had expected the GDP to increase by 0.1%. The poor report might increase pressure on the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs. However, market participants expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged next week. The BoE and other major central banks will likely proceed with caution due to uncertainty regarding the impact of Trump’s tariff. The US president has attacked many of its major trading partners with tariffs, igniting trade wars. The UK is yet to feel the pain of these tariffs like Canada and the Eurozone. However, Trump is not done. He intends to keep imposing tariffs that will affect more countries. Meanwhile, data from the US on Thursday was mixed. Wholesale inflation came in lower than expected. On the other hand, unemployment claims missed forecasts, indicating increased demand for labor. Nevertheless, Fed rate cut expectations have risen significantly due to recent downbeat economic data. GBP/USD key events today Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations GBP/USD technical price analysis: Bearish RSI divergence On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has paused its steep rally near the 1.2951 resistance level. Although the price trades above the 30-SMA, it seems ready to break below. Meanwhile, the RSI has made a bearish divergence, indicating weaker bullish momentum. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The price has maintained a bullish trend, trading mostly above the 30-SMA. However, every now and then, the price has broken below the SMA for a deeper pullback. With this, the uptrend has created a solid support trendline. Therefore, a break below the SMA would not necessarily indicate a reversal. Instead, the price might need a deeper pullback. A retest of the support trendline will allow bulls to regain momentum and seek new highs. The trend will only reverse when the price breaks below this trendline. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/14/gbp-usd-price-analysis-economic-contraction-weakens-pound/
2025-03-14 07:32
The EUR/USD outlook shows a bearish sentiment shift amid escalating trade tensions. The euro extended its retreat from the 5-month peak hit earlier in the week. The US threatened a 200% tariff on alcohol imports from the Eurozone. The EUR/USD outlook shows a bearish sentiment shift amid escalating trade tensions between the US and the Eurozone. At the same time, hopes of a ceasefire deal to end the Ukraine war dimmed slightly after Russia called for changes to the US proposal. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The euro dropped on Friday, extending its retreat from the 5-month peak hit earlier in the week. The steel and aluminum tariff that took effect on Wednesday has ignited a growing trade conflict with the US and the Eurozone, threatening tariffs on other imports like alcohol. Wednesday’s tariff prompted the Eurozone to threaten tariffs on American Whiskey. The US responded by threatening a 200% tariff on alcohol imports from the Eurozone, including wine. Such an outcome would hurt both economies by reducing trade. The ongoing trade wars between the US and its trading partners have pushed investors to safe-haven assets. There is a growing panic that the US economy will tip into a recession. Moreover, the outlook for the global economy is clouded. Elsewhere, data on Thursday revealed softer-than-expected US wholesale inflation. This followed a downbeat consumer inflation report, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts. However, with tariff uncertainty, the US Central Bank might remain cautious. EUR/USD key events today Preliminary UoM consumer sentiment Preliminary UoM inflation expectations EUR/USD technical outlook: SMA break clears path to 1.0701 support On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has broken below the 30-SMA, indicating a bearish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has broken below 50, indicating stronger bearish momentum. This shift follows a bearish RSI divergence that pointed to weak bullish momentum. As a result, the previous uptrend failed to go beyond the 1.0901 resistance level. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- The SMA break has cleared the path for EUR/USD to retest the 1.0701 support level. Despite the sentiment shift, bulls might still return to the market. However, the price might need a deeper correction before this happens. If bulls resume the uptrend, the price will likely reach the 1.1001 resistance. On the other hand, if bears take over, the price will start making lower highs and lows, indicating a new bearish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/14/eur-usd-outlook-eu-us-trade-tension-triggers-uncertainty/
2025-03-13 10:17
The EUR/USD outlook shows growing trade tensions between the US and the Eurozone. Trump implemented a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. US inflation increased by 0.2% in February, down from 0.5%. The EUR/USD outlook shows growing trade tensions between the US and the Eurozone that are weighing on the euro. However, soft US inflation figures have also pressured the dollar, putting a floor on euro declines. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- On Wednesday, Trump implemented a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, affecting major economies like Canada and the US. Both countries were ready to respond immediately with counter-tariffs. However, these trade wars will have a lasting impact on these economies, weakening their currencies. As a result, the euro eased slightly from its 5-month peak. The dollar was also fragile as market participants feared a likely US recession due to the ongoing trade wars. Economic data has already signaled weaker demand. Moreover, inflation data on Wednesday came in below estimates. The monthly figure increased by 0.2%, down from 0.5%. Meanwhile, the annual figure increased by 2.8%, down from 3.0%. If inflation has resumed its downtrend, policymakers will gain confidence that it will reach the 2% target. As a result, Fed rate cut bets increased, pushing the dollar down. However, the path of inflation will also depend on Trump’s trade policies. As Powell noted last week, there was no rush to lower borrowing costs. EUR/USD key events today US core PPI m/m US PPI m/m US unemployment claims EUR/USD technical outlook: Price tests the 30-SMA support On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has fallen to retest the 30-SMA support. However, the bias is bullish since the price is still above the SMA and the RSI is above 50. Bulls have maintained a steep rally until the price reached the 1.0901 resistance level. Here, price action showed a rejection of higher prices. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- At the same time, the RSI made a bearish divergence, indicating weaker momentum. This allowed bears to resurface and retest the 30-SMA support. If the price needs a deeper correction, it will break below the SMA, likely dropping to the 1.0701 support. After this, bulls could return to seek new highs above 1.0901. Another possibility is that the price will bounce off the 30-SMA to seek a new high and continue the uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/13/eur-usd-outlook-us-eu-trade-tensions-pause-euro-rally/
2025-03-13 08:25
The USD/CAD forecast shows a weaker dollar. Data in the previous session revealed softer-than-expected US consumer inflation. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25-bps on Wednesday, as expected. The USD/CAD forecast shows increased bearish momentum after downbeat US inflation data. At the same time, the Canadian dollar strengthened after a cautious tone during the BoC policy meeting. Moreover, support came from reports of Canada’s counter-tariffs on Trump’s steel and aluminum duties. Data in the previous session revealed softer-than-expected consumer inflation in the US in February. The CPI increased by 0.2%, a significant drop from the previous reading of 0.5%. Moreover, it was smaller than the forecast of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the annual figure increased by 2.8%, missing estimates of 2.9%. The downbeat numbers increase pressure on the Fed to lower borrowing costs. A slowdown in the economy plus softer inflation is enough motivation for policymakers to cut interest rates. As a result, rate cut expectations rose, hurting the dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25-bps on Wednesday, as expected. However, the governor said the central bank would proceed with caution due to the uncertainty regarding Trump’s tariffs. Consequently, the loonie gained. Elsewhere, Trump’s tariff on steel and aluminum imports ignited a trade war with Canada and Europe. Canada is a major exporter of steel and aluminum to the US. USD/CAD key events today US core PPI m/m US PPI m/m US unemployment claims USD/CAD technical forecast: Oscillating in the 1.4301-1.4501 range On the technical side, the USD/CAD price is oscillating between the 1.4301 support and the 1.4501 resistance levels. Bears and bulls are battling for control, with each showing strength in this range area. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- Currently, the price trades in the middle of the range. It has broken below the SMA and the RSI has dropped below 50. This is a sign that bears are trying to retest the range support. However, bulls are threatening to push the price back above the SMA. If bears maintain control, the price will soon reach the 1.4301 support level. A break below this level will indicate a bearish win, starting a downtrend. On the other hand, if the price goes back above the SMA, it will revisit the 1.4501 resistance. A break above this level will signal the start of a bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/13/usd-cad-forecast-dollar-eases-on-soft-us-inflation-figures/
2025-03-12 12:48
The USD/JPY forecast shows a pullback in the yen. Trump’s tariff on steel and aluminium imports came into effect on Wednesday. Traders are looking forward to the US CPI report. The USD/JPY forecast shows a pullback in the yen as the focus shifts to the impact of Trump’s tariffs on Japan’s export-reliant economy. At the same time, fears of the US recession kept the dollar under pressure. However, the greenback rebounded ahead of the US CPI report to gauge the outlook for Fed rate cuts. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The yen pulled back from recent highs as Trump maintained his aggressive stance on tariffs. On Wednesday, his tariff on steel and aluminium imports came into effect, igniting a trade war with the Eurozone. This has also shone a light on the looming reciprocal tariff. Trump’s tariffs will significantly impact the global economy. This includes Japan’s export-reliant economy. As a result, demand for the yen eased on Wednesday. Investors are seeking safety in other assets like gold. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan remains hawkish on policy. Companies in Japan agreed to more wage hikes on Wednesday, setting in place the right conditions for rate hikes. As a result, market participants expect more rate hikes this year. However, the next move might come in May. Meanwhile, traders are looking forward to the US CPI report. Economists expect inflation to increase by 0.3%, lower than the previous reading of 0.5%. Meanwhile, the annual figure might ease to 2.9%. USD/JPY key events today US Core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y USD/JPY technical forecast: Bulls approach the 149.00 resistance On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above the 30-SMA, indicating a bullish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has broken above 50, indicating stronger bullish momentum. This shift came after the RSI made a bullish divergence. While the price made a lower low, the RSI made a higher one, showing weaker momentum. This allowed bulls to return to the market. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, the price has to break above the 149.00 resistance level to confirm a new bullish trend. Moreover, it must start making higher highs and lows. On the other hand, if the 149.00 resistance holds firm, USD/JPY will return to retest the 147.00 support. A break below this level will make a lower low, confirming a continuation of the previous downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/12/usd-jpy-forecast-yen-slips-on-potential-tariff-impacts/
2025-03-12 09:15
The EUR/USD price analysis shows renewed optimism about a likely ceasefire deal to end the Ukraine war. Trump’s tariff on steel and aluminum came into effect on Wednesday. Market participants are looking forward to US inflation figures. The EUR/USD price analysis shows renewed optimism of a likely ceasefire deal to end the Ukraine war that has boosted the euro. On the other hand, the dollar remained weak amid recession worries. Trump’s 25% tariff on steel and aluminum goods came into effect on Wednesday, putting a lid on euro gains. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Reports that Ukraine is ready to accept a ceasefire deal with Russia increased demand for the euro. For weeks, the US has tried to bring the two countries together in an agreement to end the war. A ceasefire will be another event that will improve the outlook for the Eurozone economy. Last week, Germany announced a euro fund for infrastructure and security that has propelled the euro. Increased spending will not only be good for the economy but also reheat inflation. On the other hand, the dollar was frail as yet another Trump tariff came into effect on Wednesday. The 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports will affect many economies, including the Eurozone. Moreover, the Eurozone imposed counter-tariffs that will also hurt the US economy. Trade wars between the US and its partners have raised the risk of a recession. Meanwhile, market participants are looking forward to US inflation figures, which will shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. EUR/USD key events today US Core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y EUR/USD technical price analysis: Rally slows down around 1.09 On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has continued higher, puncturing the 1.0901 resistance level. The price trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI near the overbought region. Therefore, the bullish bias is strong. –Are you interested to learn more about Thailand forex brokers? Check our detailed guide- However, when the price broke above 1.0901, it made small-bodied candles with a large wick. This shows the rejection of higher prices. At the same time, while the price made higher highs, the RSI fell, indicating a bearish divergence. Bears might return for a deep pullback or a reversal if bullish momentum is fading. This means the price will likely break below the 30-SMA to retest the 1.0701 support level. The trend will reverse if the price starts making lower highs and lows. Otherwise, bulls will return to seek a new high above 1.0901. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/03/12/eur-usd-price-analysis-rallies-on-hopes-for-ukraine-peace-deal/
