2025-02-06 08:44
BoJ’s Naoki Tamura said on Thursday that the central bank should raise rates to 1%. The dollar remained fragile after a pause in some of Trump’s tariffs. Traders are looking forward to the US nonfarm payrolls report. The USD/JPY outlook indicates a surge in expectations for another BoJ rate hike this year after hawkish policymaker remarks. Meanwhile, the dollar traded near an eight-week low against the yen after Trump’s tariffs failed to take off in Canada and Mexico, easing fears of global trade wars. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Hawkish BoJ policymaker Naoki Tamura said on Thursday that the central bank should raise rates to 1% by the end of 2025. After these remarks, market participants were pricing a 98% chance of another rate hike by September. As a result, the yen rallied. The BoJ maintained a cautious tone towards the end of 2024. However, since Trump’s inauguration, policymakers have gained motivation to keep rates high. The new administration’s policy changes might strengthen the dollar, putting pressure on the yen. Moreover, recent data from Japan has revealed stronger wage growth and high inflation, giving the BoJ enough room to hike rates. On the other hand, the dollar remained fragile after a pause in some of Trump’s tariffs on Tuesday. Initially, the US currency gained from the prospect of tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. However, Canada and Mexico managed to negotiate with the US, leading to a pause. Since then, market participants have viewed these tariffs as negotiating tactics, pushing the dollar lower. Meanwhile, traders are looking forward to the US nonfarm payrolls report for more clues on future Fed moves. USD/JPY key events today US unemployment claims USD/JPY technical outlook: 152.00 support halts sharp decline On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has paused its decline near the 152.00 support level. The bearish bias is strong because the price trades well below the 30-SMA, and the RSI is nearer the oversold region. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Previously, the downtrend was showing weaker momentum between the 154.01 support and the 156.51 resistance levels. As a result, the price kept puncturing the 30-SMA resistance. However, a surge in bearish momentum allowed USD/JPY to break below the 154.01 support level, leading to a strong swing below the 30-SMA. The pause at the 152.00 level will allow bulls to return and retest the 154.01 as resistance or the 30-SMA. Nevertheless, given the strong bearish bias, the downtrend will likely continue with a new low below 152.00. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/06/usd-jpy-outlook-hawkish-boj-strenghtens-case-for-another-hike/
2025-02-06 07:17
Market participants are pricing a 92% chance of a quarter-point BoE rate cut. US private jobs increased more than expected. Business activity in the US services sector fell, with the PMI dropping from 54.2 to 52.8. The GBP/USD forecast shows a pullback from recent peaks as market participants prepare for a likely Bank of England rate cut. Meanwhile, the dollar remained fragile amid lingering fears of a trade war between the US and China. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The Bank of England will hold its policy meeting later in the day, and market participants are pricing a 92% chance of a quarter-point rate cut. This will be the third cut since the central bank started its monetary easing campaign last year. The rate cut will come after a period of weak economic growth in the UK. However, policymakers believe inflation remains high. For this reason, the BoE has been more cautious at cutting than most of its peers, like the BoC and ECB. Market participants expect three rate cuts in the UK this year. However, this will heavily depend on incoming data and the impact of Trump’s policies on the global economy. Meanwhile, the dollar remained fragile after turmoil in the previous session caused by fears of a trade war between China and the US. Trump’s 10% triggered an immediate response from China, indicating a lack of willingness to negotiate. Elsewhere, data on Wednesday revealed that US private jobs increased more than expected. However, a separate report showed that business activity in the services sector fell, with the PMI dropping from 54.2 to 52.8. GBP/USD key events today BoE monetary policy report BoE monetary policy summary US unemployment claims GBP/USD technical forecast: RSI divergence points to fading bullish momentum On the technical side, the GBP/USD price is pulling back after failing to breach the 1.2501 resistance level. However, the bullish bias remains intact since the price trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI over 50. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- The previous uptrend paused when the price met the 1.2501 resistance. This led to a break below the SMA and a bearish shift in sentiment. However, bulls returned to retest the level but again failed to keep prices above. Meanwhile, the RSI has made a bearish divergence, indicating weaker bullish momentum. If the divergence plays out, the price will likely break below the 30-SMA to retest the 1.2351 and the 1.2200 support levels. This might start a new downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/06/gbp-usd-forecast-markets-cautious-ahead-of-boe-meeting/
2025-02-05 08:40
Canada and Mexico were able to negotiate better trading agreements with the US. The dollar collapsed after Trump paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The US implemented tariffs on China, leading to an immediate response. The EUR/USD forecast indicates solid bullish sentiment amid relief over the pause in Trump’s tariffs on Tuesday. Market participants are more convinced that these tariffs are more of a negotiating tactic. Therefore, the risk of a weaker Eurozone economy has dropped. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The euro rose on Wednesday despite threats that the Eurozone would be the next victim of Trump’s tariffs. Traders are less worried about the impact of these tariffs since the US seems more willing to negotiate better trading deals than to punish its trade partners. Notably, on Tuesday, Canada and Mexico were able to negotiate better trading agreements, leading to a pause in tariffs. As a result, the dollar collapsed while its peers, including the euro, rebounded. Initially, there were concerns that Trump’s tariffs would weaken major economies like the Eurozone by reducing demand for its goods. Such an outcome would push central banks to aggressively lower borrowing costs in order to support their economies. This, in turn, would weaken their currencies against the dollar. However, since the tariff pause on Tuesday, most major currencies have rebounded. Nevertheless, tariffs on China were implemented, leading to an immediate response. Therefore, there is still a risk of a trade war between the two countries. EUR/USD key events today US ADP non-farm employment change US ISM services PMI EUR/USD technical forecast: Bulls on the brink of breaking 1.0400 On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has broken above the 30-SMA resistance, indicating a bullish shift in sentiment. At the same time, the RSI has broken above 50, signaling a surge in bullish momentum. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- However, bulls face a solid hurdle at the 1.0400 resistance level. If the price breaks above, it will likely reach the 1.0500 resistance level. On the other hand, if the level holds firm, the price might drop back below the SMA to revisit the 1.0225 support. Initially, bears had shown solid momentum, causing a big gap to the 1.0225 level. However, since then, the price has filled the gap and reversed the downtrend. However, bulls must make new highs above the 1.0500 level to confirm a continuation of the previous bullish trend. Otherwise, bears might resume the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/05/eur-usd-forecast-optimism-grows-as-tariff-pause-calms-fears/
2025-02-05 07:05
Data revealed solid wage growth in Japan in December. Market participants are pricing 30-bps of BoJ rate hikes by the end of this year. The yen strengthened due to safe-haven demand amid fears of a trade war between the US and China. The USD/JPY price analysis shows a strong yen with rising expectations for Bank of Japan rate hikes this year amid upbeat data. Meanwhile, the greenback remained fragile after Trump paused tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods in the previous session. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The yen strengthened against the dollar on Wednesday as data revealed solid wage growth in Japan in December. Notably, real wages rose by 0.6% annually, boosting BoJ rate hike bets. Market participants are now pricing 30-bps of rate hikes by the end of this year. Moreover, Japan’s central bank might be motivated to hike interest rates if Trump’s tariffs significantly strengthen the dollar. Meanwhile, the yen also strengthened due to safe-haven demand amid fears of a trade war between the US and China. Trump’s 10% tariff on Chinese goods took effect on Tuesday. Meanwhile, China responded immediately by imposing tariffs on some US goods. Moreover, the two top leaders do not seem ready to negotiate better trading deals. Therefore, market participants are worried about a prolonged trade war. The dollar eased on Wednesday against most of its peers amid relief over the pause in tariffs on Canada and Mexico. However, this might be brief if Trump decides to impose more tariffs. USD/JPY key events today US ADP non-farm employment change US ISM services PMI USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bears eye 152.00 after breakout On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken below the 154.01 support level. As a result, the price has made a lower low, confirming a continuation of the downtrend. The price has fallen well below the 30-SMA, with the RSI nearer the oversold level, supporting a bearish bias. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- USD/JPY has maintained a shallow downtrend since bears took charge. Although they are making swing lows, the price is sticking close to the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI has barely entered the oversold region, a sign that bears are holding back or bulls are quite strong. If bears gain momentum, the price will collapse to the 152.00 support level. On the other hand, if bulls overpower bears, the price might break above the 30-SMA to start an uptrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/05/usd-jpy-price-analysis-yen-rallies-amid-potential-boj-rate-hike/
2025-02-04 08:43
Household spending in Australia rose in December. Market participants are pricing the first RBA rate cut in February. Canada and Mexico agreed to the demands of the Trump administration, leading to a pause in tariffs. The AUD/USD price analysis indicates stronger demand in Australia, with household spending rising in December. Moreover, the Australian dollar rose as risk appetite improved after Trump paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- Data on Tuesday revealed that household spending in Australia rose in December, marking the third month of an increase. Although this was bullish for the Aussie, Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut bets remained unchanged. Market participants are pricing the first rate cut in February after weaker-than-expected inflation figures last week. Meanwhile, the dollar’s peers, including the Australian dollar, rebounded on Tuesday after Trump paused tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods. Initially, the dollar had soared after the US President implemented a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on China starting on Tuesday. However, Canada and Mexico agreed to the demands of the Trump administration, leading to a pause that weighed on the dollar. As a result, the Aussie rebounded. However, the tariff on China started on Tuesday, causing a similar response from the country that could mean a prolonged trade war. This could weaken the Aussie, a proxy for the Chinese yuan. Moreover, a trade war between China and the US will dampen risk appetite, affecting the risk-sensitive Australian dollar. AUD/USD key events today US JOLTS Job Openings AUD/USD technical price analysis: Attempting to retest 30-SMA On the technical side, the AUD/USD price trades slightly below the 30-SMA with the RSI below 50, supporting a bearish bias. However, on a larger scale, the price has been trading between the 0.6150 support and the 0.6300 resistance, with several false breakouts. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Recently, the price gapped below the range support to reach the 0.6100 support level. However, bulls soon returned, pushing the price back into the range area. However, since it still trades below the 30-SMA, bears might make another attempt at the range support. Bears must make a new low below the 0.6100 level to confirm a solid breakout. On the other hand, if the price breaks above the 30-SMA, it will climb to retest the range resistance level. A break above this level would confirm a bullish breakout. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/04/aud-usd-price-analysis-dec-spending-growth-boosts-aussie/
2025-02-04 07:09
The US and Canada agreed to pause the 25% tariff announced on Monday. A 10% tariff on Chinese goods took effect on Tuesday. Business activity in Canada’s manufacturing sector slowed in January. The USD/CAD outlook shows a sharp shift in sentiment that has boosted the Canadian dollar. A pause in Trump’s tariffs on Canada allowed the loonie to recover most of its losses from Monday. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The USD/CAD pair reversed sharply after reports that the US and Canada had reached an agreement that would pause the 25% tariff announced on Monday. This removed the risk of a trade war between the two countries. At the same time, it lifted the dark cloud cast over Canada’s already fragile economy. Avoiding tariffs means that the Bank of Canada can continue at its current pace without fears of further slowdown in the economy. As a result, the Canadian dollar recovered. However, a 10% tariff on Chinese goods took effect on Tuesday, causing a similar response from China. Authorities in China have promised to implement a 10% duty on US goods starting February 10th. The tariff allowed the greenback to recover against its peers on Tuesday. However, a trade war between China and the US will likely still cause market turmoil. Elsewhere, data revealed that business activity in Canada’s manufacturing sector slowed in January. This easing came as investors feared the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the economy. USD/CAD key events today US JOLTS Job Openings USD/CAD technical outlook: Whiplash move signals indecision On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has dropped and filled the gap created in the previous session. At the same time, the price has fallen to retest the 30-SMA and the recently broken range resistance. This has created a whiplash move, indicating a surge in volatility. Moreover, it shows that both bears and bulls are strong. Therefore, although the price broke out of consolidation, there is still no clear direction. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Currently, the price trades slightly above the 30-SMA, supporting a bullish bias. If bulls regain momentum, USD/CAD will bounce higher to retest the 1.4600 resistance. However, to confirm a bullish trend, the price must make a higher high above the 1.4801 resistance level. Otherwise, USD/CAD might start a new range. On the other hand, if bears overpower bulls, the price will break below the 30-SMA to challenge the 1.4300 range support. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/04/usd-cad-outlook-tariff-relief-sparks-recovery-in-loonie/
