2025-02-10 08:52
Trump announced a new 25% tariff on aluminum and steel imports. The US unemployment rate unexpectedly eased from 4.1% to 4.0%. The yen eased slightly on Monday after soaring in the previous week. The USD/JPY outlook shows a brighter day for the US dollar after Trump announced more tariffs. Meanwhile, a drop in the US unemployment rate indicated a still-resilient US labor sector. Nevertheless, the pair traded near lows hit last week as market participants increased bets for a Bank of Japan rate hike. Trump announced a new 25% tariff on aluminum and steel imports, plus a reciprocal tariff on all countries starting this week. This news increased fears of trade wars that dampened risk appetite. Meanwhile, demand for the safe-haven dollar increased. The greenback also recovered at the prospect of increased demand for local US goods due to tariffs. Meanwhile, data on Friday showed slower job growth, with the US economy adding 143,000 jobs compared to estimates of 169,000. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate unexpectedly eased from 4.1% to 4.0%, indicating stronger demand for labor. A resilient labor market will likely keep the Fed on a cautious path. On the other hand, the yen eased slightly on Monday after soaring in the previous week due to increased expectations for a BoJ rate hike. Data from Japan revealed stronger wage growth, creating the right conditions for higher interest rates. USD/JPY key events today Market participants do not expect high-impact reports from the US or Japan. Therefore, the price will likely consolidate. USD/JPY technical outlook: Bullish engulfing candle On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has rebounded after meeting the 151.02 support level. However, the bias remains bearish since the price trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI in bearish territory below 50. The decline started when the price broke below the 30-asma and the 154.01 support level. After such a sharp move, bears showed exhaustion near the 151.02 support level. As a result, bulls resurfaced and made a bullish engulfing candlestick. The pattern shows a surge in bullish momentum that might allow USD/JPY to bounce higher and retest the 30-SMA. If the price climbs higher, it will retest the 154.01 resistance before continuing its decline. The downtrend will continue if the price breaks below the 151.02 support to make new lows. Otherwise, bulls might reverse the trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/10/usd-jpy-outlook-dollar-rallies-as-trump-escalates-tariff-policy/
2025-02-10 07:41
Trump said he would impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Canada’s economy added 76,000 jobs in January. US jobs data indicated a mixed picture of the labor sector. The USD/CAD forecast shows caution in the markets as traders weigh the impact of Trump’s tariffs on the global economy. Nevertheless, after an upbeat employment report, the Canadian dollar held near recent highs. On the other hand, a mixed US report kept rate cut expectations mostly unchanged. Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump said he would impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, raising concerns of trade wars. More tariffs will likely boost the dollar as local production and consumption increase. However, trade wars might hurt the global economy and impact the US. Canada escaped a 25% tariff that was to start last week, boosting the Canadian dollar. However, this pause might end next month, exposing Canada’s economy to punitive duties. Nevertheless, the tariff relief last week supported the loonie. Moreover, data on Friday revealed that Canada’s economy added 76,000 jobs in January, well above estimates. At the same time, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 6.6%. This eased pressure on the Bank of Canada to lower borrowing costs. Meanwhile, US data on Friday showed slower job growth in January. However, the unemployment rate dropped, indicating a mixed picture of the labor sector. Traders are now looking forward to inflation data. USD/CAD key events today Market participants do not expect any key economic reports from the US or Canada. Therefore, they will focus their attention on US tariff developments. USD/CAD technical forecast: Bears challenge the 1.2400 support On the technical side, the USD/CAD price trades below the 30-SMA with the RSI below 50, indicating a bearish bias. The trend recently reversed after bullish momentum faded at the 1.2550 resistance level. Although the price made a higher high, the RSI made a lower one, creating a bearish divergence. This allowed bears to take charge by breaking below the 30-SMA. However, bears have met a solid hurdle at the 1.2400 support level. A break below this support will allow the price to reach the 1.2251 level. This will confirm a bearish trend. On the other hand, if the support holds firm, USD/CAD will bounce to retest the 1.2550 resistance level. A break above this level would confirm a continuation of the previous bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/10/usd-cad-forecast-tariffs-jitters-weighing-on-loonie/
2025-02-08 19:07
Japan released data showing solid wage growth. A pause in US tariffs weakened the greenback. US employment figures revealed a drop in job growth and lower unemployment. The USD/JPY weekly forecast is bearish amid increasing bets for a Bank of Japan rate hike, boosting the yen. Ups and downs of USD/JPY The USD/JPY pair ended the week lower as the yen rallied against the dollar due to a surge in BoJ rate hike expectations. At the same time, a pause in US tariffs weakened the greenback. BoJ rate hike bets rose after Japan released data showing solid wage growth. Meanwhile, the dollar eased as market participants became more convinced that Trump’s tariffs were just a negotiation tactic. He paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico, plunging the dollar. Additionally, employment figures revealed a drop in job growth and lower unemployment, painting a mixed picture of the labor sector. Next week’s key events for USD/JPY Next week, traders will focus on data from the US, including consumer inflation, producer inflation and retail sales. The inflation figures will show the state of price pressures, shaping the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Last month, inflation came in at 2.9%, nearing the Fed’s 2% target. However, policymakers have remained cautious because it has paused near this level. As a result, the central bank has been waiting for more progress before signaling further rate cuts. Meanwhile, the retail sales report will show the state of consumer spending in the US. USD/JPY weekly technical forecast: Price targets the 150.06 support On the technical side, the USD/JPY price is approaching the 150.06 support level after breaking below its bullish trendline. The price trades far below the 22-SMA, showing a strong lead for bears. At the same time, the RSI trades near the oversold region, indicating solid bearish momentum. Bulls paused the previous move when the price got to the 158.54 resistance level. Moreover, although the price made higher highs and lows, it broke below the 22-SMA, indicating a corrective move. At the same time, the RSI failed to enter the overbought region, a sign that either bulls were holding back, or bears were strong too. After the corrective move, USD/JPY might make an impulsive leg. Therefore, the price might break below the 150.06 support to reach the 145.00 support. However, the price might retest the 22-SMA as resistance before continuing lower. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/08/usd-jpy-weekly-forecast-boj-rate-hike-bets-boost-yen/
2025-02-08 19:04
The dollar collapsed when a 25% tariff meant for Canada and Mexico failed to take off. The Bank of England lowered borrowing costs. Data on Friday showed a mixed picture of the US labor sector. The GBP/USD weekly forecast indicates a brief respite for the pound as Trump’s policies weaken the dollar. Ups and downs of GBP/USD The GBP/USD pair had a bullish week despite a rate cut by the Bank of England. The rally came from a decline in the dollar after Trump paused tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods. On Tuesday, the dollar collapsed when a 25% tariff meant for Canada and Mexico failed to take off. The two countries negotiated better trade deals, giving them more time. Meanwhile, the Bank of England lowered borrowing costs but emphasized the need for caution due to high inflation. Finally, data on Friday showed a mixed picture of the US labor sector, with both jobs and the unemployment rate easing. Next week’s key events for GBP/USD Next week, market participants will focus on inflation and retail sales data from the US. Meanwhile, the UK will release figures on manufacturing production and GDP. The US consumer inflation report will shape the outlook for Fed rate cuts. In the previous month, the core CPI figure missed forecasts, indicating soft underlying price pressures. As a result, the dollar fell as rate cut expectations rose. Another month of cooler-than-expected inflation might further weigh on the dollar. Meanwhile, the UK GDP report will show the state of the UK economy, which has been slowing down. GBP/USD weekly technical forecast: Price briefly retreats after channel breakout On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken out of its bearish channel, indicating a bullish shift in sentiment. The price now trades slightly above the 22-SMA, showing bulls are in the lead. However, the RSI remains slightly below 50, a sign that bearish momentum is still strong. GBP/USD has maintained a strong downtrend, making lower highs and lows and breaking past key support levels. However, bears paused when the price hit the 1.2200 support level. Here, price action showed small-bodied candles with large wicks, indicating indecision. After that, bulls took charge by breaking above the channel resistance and the 22-SMA resistance. The price is currently retesting the SMA as support. If bulls remain in the lead, the price will climb to the 1.2800 resistance. A break above this resistance would confirm a new bullish trend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/08/gbp-usd-weekly-forecast-pound-finds-breather-on-tariff-relief/
2025-02-07 07:20
The Canadian dollar has gained sharply since Trump paused an expected 25% tariff. Economists expect slower job growth in the US and Canada. Unemployment might increase in Canada. The USD/CAD price analysis shows a brighter future for the Canadian dollar since Trump paused a 25% tariff on Canadian goods. Meanwhile, market participants are gearing up for employment figures from Canada and the US that will guide monetary policy in both countries. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The Canadian dollar has gained sharply since Trump paused an expected 25% tariff on Canadian goods. The tariff had dimmed the outlook for an economy that exports nearly 70% of its goods to the US. Moreover, economists were predicting a more aggressive Bank of Canada easing cycle to balance the impacts of tariffs. However, Canada managed to negotiate better trade deals, giving the country more time. At the same time, since the pause, traders are more convinced that Trump is only using the threat of tariffs as a negotiation tactic. Therefore, there is little risk of global trade wars. Elsewhere, Canada and the US are set to release their monthly employment figures, which will shape the outlook for BoC and Fed rate cuts. Economists expect slower job growth in both countries. Meanwhile, unemployment might increase in Canada and hold steady in the US. Weak data will increase rate-cut bets for the BoC and Fed. Meanwhile, upbeat figures might lower rate cut expectations. USD/CAD key events today Canada employment change Canada unemployment rate US average hourly earnings m/m US nonfarm employment change US unemployment rate USD/CAD technical price analysis: Price falls back into the range area On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has paused its decline near the 1.4300 support level. The price still trades well below the 30-SMA with the RSI below 50, suggesting a strong bearish bias. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Bears took charge after a large bullish gap that pushed USD/CAD to a new high. Soon after, the price filled the gap and fell back below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the price fell back into its previous range between the 1.4300 support and the 1.4450 resistance. However, this time, bears are showing stronger momentum. Therefore, the price might break below the range resistance to start a new downtrend. On the other hand, if bulls are also strong, the price will bounce off the range support to retest the range resistance level. Such an outcome would indicate a continuation of the previous range. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/07/usd-cad-price-analysis-tariff-reprieve-boosts-canadian-dollar/
2025-02-07 06:54
The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25-bps on Thursday. Two BoE policymakers were ready for a more significant rate cut. Economists expect slower US job growth in January. The GBP/USD outlook points south after an unexpected call for a more significant rate cut during the Bank of England policy meeting. At the same time, the dollar rebounded as traders looked forward to the US nonfarm payrolls report for more clues on future Fed moves. –Are you interested to learn more about forex options trading? Check our detailed guide- The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25-bps on Thursday as expected. However, surprisingly, the vote count revealed that two policymakers were ready for a more significant rate cut. This came after recent data revealed weakness in the UK economy. Nevertheless, Governor Bailey noted that the central bank would stick to a gradual and cautious approach. Moreover, the BoE forecasted higher inflation and weaker growth. A rapid economic slowdown could force policymakers to focus on growth rather than inflation. Meanwhile, the dollar recovered on Friday as traders awaited the US monthly employment report. Previously, the US currency collapsed after Trump paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico, easing fears of global trade wars. The focus has now shifted to economic data. Economists expect slower job growth in January, with the economy adding 169,000 jobs. In the previous month, there were 256,000 new jobs. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate might hold steady at 4.1%. GBP/USD key events today Average Hourly Earnings m/m Non-Farm Employment Change Unemployment Rate GBP/USD technical outlook: Bears take charge after RSI divergence On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has dropped to the 1.2351 support level after the RSI made a bearish divergence. Initially, the price made a second attempt to break above the 1.2501 resistance level. However, despite making a higher high, bulls failed to sustain a move above the resistance. At the same time, the RSI made a lower high, signaling weaker bullish momentum. This eventually led to a break below the 30-SMA. -If you are interested in knowing about scalping forex brokers, then read our guidelines to get started- Currently, the price is retesting the 30-SMA as resistance. If it breaks above, GBP/USD will climb to retest the 1.2501 resistance level. On the other hand, if the price bounces lower, it will revisit the 1.2351 support level. A break below this level will make a lower low, confirming a new downtrend. Moreover, it will allow the price to reach the 1.2200 support level. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/07/gbp-usd-outlook-pound-eases-after-dovish-boe-cut/
