2025-02-14 08:06
The AUD/USD outlook shows a strong Aussie despite growing RBA rate cut bets. Trump’s reciprocal tariff will not come immediately. Market participants are looking forward to the US retail sales report. The AUD/USD outlook shows a strong Aussie despite increasing expectations for a Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut rates next Tuesday. The Australian dollar was steady as the dollar fell due to easing tariff concerns. A Reuters poll found that 90% of economists expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to implement its first rate cut next week. The central bank will be among the last to start its easing cycle. However, interest rates in Australia did not rise as much as in other major economies. Therefore, the central bank has a short way to go. Recent data has created the right conditions for a rate cut, with inflation reaching 2.4%. If this trend continues, policymakers might shift to a more dovish tone, weakening the Aussie. However, the survey had little impact on Australia’s currency as market participants focused on Trump’s tariffs. The US President has promised a reciprocal tariff on all countries with duties on US goods. However, this tariff will not come immediately as the administration is still formulating implementation plans. This brief respite led to a decline in the dollar, allowing its peers like the Aussie to climb. Market participants are now looking forward to the US retail sales report to see the state of consumer spending. This report will give clues on future policy moves. AUD/USD key events today US core retail sales m/m US retail sales m/m AUD/USD technical outlook: Bulls eying 0.6350 On the technical side, the AUD/USD price has broken above the 0.6300 key resistance level to make a higher high. The price trades above the 30-SMA with the RSI above 50, suggesting a strong bullish bias. After a solid surge, the price paused below the 0.6300 resistance. Here, the price consolidated, chopping through the 30-SMA as bulls attempted to break above the resistance. The breakout has solidified the bullish bias by clearing the path to the 0.6350 level. The bullish trend will continue if the price breaks above this level and makes higher highs and lows. Meanwhile, if the level holds firm, the price might drop to retest the 0.6300 level as support. A break below the 30-SMA would confirm a bearish shift in sentiment. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/14/aud-usd-outlook-market-optimism-oversights-rba-cut-odds/
2025-02-13 08:33
The EUR/USD outlook shows an increasing likelihood of ending the Ukraine war. The Ukraine war has had negative effects on the Eurozone economy. The dollar rallied against most of its peers except the euro after US inflation data came in higher than expected. The EUR/USD outlook remains positive amid the increasing likelihood of ending the Russia-Ukraine war. As a result, the euro gained despite upbeat US inflation figures that strengthened the dollar against most of its peers. Reports on Wednesday revealed that the US President is ready to mediate an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. Trump talked to Ukraine’s Zelenskiy and Russia’s Putin and said that both leaders wanted peace and an end to the war. For almost three years now, the Ukraine war has had negative effects on the Eurozone economy. At the same time, it has impacted the global economy, especially leading to a dramatic surge in oil prices that pushed inflation in most major economies higher. An end to the war would eliminate the ever-present risk of an escalation. Moreover, it would allow the Eurozone economy to recover from the impacts of the war. Elsewhere, the dollar rallied against most of its peers except the euro after inflation data came in higher than expected. The monthly CPI increased by 0.5%, above estimates of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the annual figure increased by 3.0%, beating forecasts of 2.9%. The upbeat report led to a drop in Fed rate cut expectations, supporting the dollar. EUR/USD key events today US Core PPI m/m US PPI m/m US unemployment claims EUR/USD technical outlook: Bulls eye the 1.0500 resistance On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has broken above a strong resistance zone comprising the 30-SMA, a bearish trendline and the 1.0400 resistance level. The break indicates a surge in bullish momentum that could lead to a new uptrend. Initially, the price was trading in a corrective bearish move, chopping through the 30-SMA. However, when the price made a higher low near the 1.0301 support level, it was a sign that bulls would seek a higher high. As a result, the price rallied and broke above the 30-SMA and its resistance trendline. Moreover, it broke above the 1.0400 and made a higher high. Given the stronger bullish momentum, EUR/USD might climb to retest the 1.0500 resistance. A break above this level will strengthen the bias. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/13/eur-usd-outlook-russia-ukraine-optimism-boosts-euro/
2025-02-13 07:26
The USD/JPY forecast suggests a brief pause after a rally in the previous session. The US reported that inflation increased by 0.5% in January. Market participants are keeping an eye on Trump’s tariff developments. The USD/JPY forecast suggests a brief retreat as traders take profits after an upbeat US inflation report. However, the bullish bias remains intact as market participants price a hawkish Fed and only one rate cut this year. High borrowing costs will keep a wide gap in rates between the US and Japan, hurting the yen. The dollar rallied to new peaks against the yen after an upbeat consumer inflation report, reversing the previous downtrend. The US reported that inflation increased by 0.5% in January, well above estimates of a 0.3% increase. At the same time, the annual figure jumped by 3.0%, beating forecasts of 2.9%. The unexpectedly hot numbers pushed market participants to slash bets for Fed rate cuts. After the report, traders were only pricing 28-bps of rate cuts this year, down from 37-bps. Meanwhile, market participants are keeping an eye on Trump’s tariff developments. The US President has promised to impose duties on all countries that have tariffs on US goods. Such an outcome would rekindle fears of a global trade war and economic uncertainty. Moreover, tariffs will likely keep US inflation high, forcing the Fed to keep rates at elevated levels. USD/JPY key events today US core PPI m/m US PPI m/m US unemployment claims USD/JPY technical forecast: Bulls pause to retest 154.01 as support On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above the 30-SMA and soared past the 154.01 resistance level. At the same time, the RI has jumped and now trades near the overbought region. This shows a strong shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish. Previously, the price had shown massive bearish momentum when it collapsed through the 154.01 support and reached the 151.02 level. However, bears could not continue beyond this level. As a result, bulls emerged and made an engulfing candle that signaled a looming reversal. Soon after, the price broke above the SMA, rising to new highs. At the moment, the price is retesting the 154.01 level as support. If it holds firm, the price will likely climb to the 156.00 resistance level. However, it might drop further to the 30-SMA before making new highs. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/13/usd-jpy-forecast-investors-lock-in-gains-after-inflation-rally/
2025-02-12 08:57
The GBP/USD forecast indicates resilience in the pound. Trump announced a new 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. Traders are waiting for the US CPI report to provide more clues on future Fed rate cuts. The GBP/USD forecast indicates resilience in the UK currency as Britain remains one of the least vulnerable economies to Trump’s tariffs. However, market participants remained cautious ahead of US inflation figures and UK GDP data. At the start of the week, Trump announced a new 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports that will affect several major economies. However, the market reaction was subdued. Previous tariff threats have caused market turmoil, plunging the currencies of the countries involved, such as the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile, the pound remains safe as none of Trump’s recent tariffs have directly impacted the UK economy. Nevertheless, the US president has mentioned a reciprocal tariff on all imports to the US. Meanwhile, the dollar eased on Tuesday as markets shifted their focus from tariffs to the US economy and monetary policy. Powell’s speech on Tuesday had little surprises as the Fed Chair maintained his cautious tone. He emphasized that there was no hurry to lower borrowing costs. Traders will now wait for the US CPI report for more clues on future rate cuts. Meanwhile, the UK will release its GDP report on Thursday. Economists believe it will be another downbeat figure as the slowdown in the economy continues. GBP/USD key events today US core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y Fed Chair Powell Testifies GBP/USD technical forecast: Bulls set sights on the 1.2550 resistance On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has broken above the 30-SMA after failing to sustain a move below the 1.2400 key level. Above the SMA, with the RSI above 50, the price has a bullish bias and will likely soon climb to retest the 1.2550 resistance level. However, bulls have come near this resistance level three times and failed to continue higher. The first time the price neared the level, it reversed and broke below the 30-SMA. The second time, it did the same. In this third attempt, if bulls fail to break above 1.2550, bears might take charge and reverse the trend entirely. This would allow GBP/USD to reach prices below 1.2251. On the other hand, if bulls gain enough momentum to breach the resistance, the bullish trend will continue higher. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/12/gbp-usd-forecast-uk-economy-unaffected-by-trumps-tariffs/
2025-02-12 07:21
Markets barely reacted to Trump’s latest tariff threats. Powell stated that the Fed would not hurry to lower interest rates. Economists believe US inflation increased by 0.3% in January. The EUR/USD price analysis shows easing tariff concerns that have weakened the dollar and strengthened the euro. Markets have shifted their focus to the upcoming US consumer inflation report, which will give more clues on the outlook for monetary policy in the US. Traders are less concerned about Trump’s tariffs as markets barely reacted to his latest threats. The US President promised a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports. The new tariffs will impact the Eurozone and Canada, among other nations. However, the Eurozone has promised an appropriate response to any such duties. The tariffs would pressure the ECB to further cut interest rates as economic demand slowed down. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell testified before Congress that the Fed would not hurry to lower interest rates. His remarks revealed caution among policymakers due to uncertainty regarding the impact of Trump’s policies. The dollar fell because markets had expected these remarks. Meanwhile, market participants expect the US consumer inflation report for guidance on the outlook for Fed rate cuts. Economists believe inflation increased by 0.3% in January. A bigger increase will lower expectations for rate cuts, boosting the dollar. On the other hand, if inflation is softer than expected, the dollar will drop as rate-cut expectations rise. EUR/USD key events today US core CPI m/m US CPI m/m US CPI y/y Fed Chair Powell Testifies EUR/USD technical price analysis: Bulls testing solid resistance hurdle On the technical side, the EUR/USD price has broken above the 30-SMA, and the RSI trades above 50, suggesting a bullish bias. The price recently bounced higher after meeting the 1.0301 support level. However, bulls are facing a solid resistance trendline. Moreover, right after the trendline is the 1.0400 key level. A break above these levels will confirm a bullish shift in sentiment. However, bulls must push higher and start making higher highs and lows to confirm a new bullish trend. On the other hand, if any of these two resistance levels hold firm, the price will likely drop back below the 30-SMA to retest the 1.0301 support level. A break below this level would confirm a continuation of the downtrend. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/12/eur-usd-price-analysis-euro-rebounds-on-fading-tariff-worries/
2025-02-11 09:02
Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. The outlook for the US economy is brightening with additional tariffs. Economists believe US inflation will be slower, increasing by 0.3% in January. The USD/CAD price analysis shows CAD sellers returning to the market amid fears of the impact of Trump’s new tariffs on Canada’s economy. However, trading remained thin as market participants eagerly waited for the crucial US consumer inflation report due on Wednesday. The Canadian dollar eased after Trump announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports starting on 4th March. Canada got a one-month relief from a 25% tariff on all its goods to the US. However, the country is also a major exporter of steel and aluminum to the US. Therefore, the new tariffs have dimmed the outlook for Canada’s economy. Moreover, the Bank of Canada will be under a lot of pressure to lower borrowing costs and support the economy. Meanwhile, the outlook for the US economy is brightening with additional tariffs. Duties on imports will force consumers to buy local products, boosting economic demand. At the same time, local production will increase, further supporting the economy. Meanwhile, market participants expect the US consumer inflation report on Wednesday. Economists believe inflation will be slower, increasing by 0.3% in January. Meanwhile, the annual figure might mirror the previous month’s 2.9% increase. An upbeat report will boost USD/CAD as it will imply a hawkish Fed and a monetary policy divergence between the US and Canada. USD/CAD key events today Fed Chair Powell Testifies USD/CAD technical price analysis: Small-bodied candles indicate indecision On the technical side, the USD/CAD price has paused near the 1.4300 support level. The pause comes after a sharp decline that pushed the price well below the 30-SMA. At the same time, the RSI dropped below 50, indicating stronger bearish momentum. However, bears were unable to break below the 1.4300 support, allowing the 30-SMA to catch up. The pause also allowed bulls to resurface and break above the 30-SMA. However, the break was weak as the price is making small-bodied candles. This is a sign that there is still indecision at this level, with bears and bulls fighting for control. If bulls win, the price will climb higher to retest the 1.4450 resistance level. On the other hand, if bears win, the price will break below the 1.4300 support to make lower lows. https://www.forexcrunch.com/blog/2025/02/11/usd-cad-price-analysis-tariff-fears-boost-greenback/
