2023-11-24 05:54

NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Major Wall Street indexes notched weekly gains on Friday, as global equities drifted toward their biggest one-month rally since November 2020 during a shortened, muted trading session following the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Oil futures traded steady ahead of next week's OPEC+ meeting, which could bring some kind of agreement on output cuts in 2024. Gold futures finished higher as the dollar index slipped against a basket of currencies on Friday. Data showed U.S. business activity held steady in November, but employment in the private sector declined. MSCI's index of global shares (.MIWD00000PUS) added 0.12% and headed for a monthly gain of 8.7% after investors grew increasingly confident that U.S. interest rates have peaked, with the market narrative shifting to the timing of cuts. . The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 117.12 points, or 0.33%, to 35,390.15, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 2.72 points, or 0.06%, at 4,559.34 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 15.00 points, or 0.11%, to 14,250.86. Europe's benchmark STOXX 600 (.STOXX) gained 0.4% on Friday to close higher for a second straight week, while investors assessed data from Germany for clues about the country's economic outlook. Germany's DAX (.GDAXI) closed up 0.2%. In geopolitical news, Israel and Hamas started a four-day ceasefire on Friday and the militants released a group of hostages, the first sign of detente in the near seven-week war. The U.S. central bank has raised benchmark borrowing costs by more than five percentage points since March 2022 as part of a global monetary tightening cycle. "Weaker (economic) data and weaker inflation in the U.S. has given markets hope you are going to start to see rate cuts," said Peter Doherty, investment management director at Arbuthnot Latham in London. "But the debate is whether we should be taking profits now," he added, given the potential for a "re-acceleration of U.S. growth," after the world's largest economy confounded recession forecasts throughout 2023. Despite optimism having surged across global markets this month, there may also be a lull ahead as investors position their portfolios for 2024, some analysts said. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields , which set the tone for borrowing costs worldwide, rose to 4.485%. They were still comfortably below the 5% milestone reached last month. Minutes from the latest Fed policy meeting signaled there would not be more hikes unless progress against taming inflation faltered. S&P Global said its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, was unchanged at 50.7 as a modest rise in services sector activity offset a contraction in manufacturing. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the private sector. The lack of strong order growth resulted in businesses shedding workers, with the survey's employment index saw its first contraction since June 2020. An easing labor market will aid the Fed's fight against inflation. Euro zone government bond yields ticked higher, reflecting pushback from European Central Bank officials against speculation they were ready to start thinking about cutting rates. ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann, seen as a policy hawk, reiterated that another rate hike was possible, after Belgian policymaker Pierre Wunsch warned about "too optimistic" bets on future cuts. Germany's 10-year government bond yield , the benchmark for the euro area, rose 3 basis points to a 1-1/2-week high. In the UK, where the Bank of England is now viewed as having to keep interest rates at a 15-year high until late next summer, sterling rose to the highest since early September. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei share index (.N225) climbed, charging back toward a 33-year high hit on Monday. Data on Friday showed that Japan's core consumer inflation picked up slightly in October, although by less than expected. Mainland China's CSI 300 index dropped 0.7% to its lowest close in more than a month, reflecting investor concern about a property slump and sluggish economy. On Friday, foreign investors sold a net 6.2 billion yuan ($859.8 million) of mainland Chinese shares via the stock connect channel, the biggest daily outflow in more than a month. Oil prices were steady after tumbling more than 1% on concerns over a delayed OPEC+ meeting. Brent crude futures settled down 1.03% at $80.58 per barrel, as U.S. prices finished down 2.02% at $75.54. Gold futures settled 0.5% higher at $2,003. Spot prices gained 0.48% to $2,001.36 an ounce. ($1 = 7.2111 Chinese yuan renminbi) https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2023-11-24/

2023-11-24 05:47

NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped against a basket of currencies on Friday on news of steady U.S. business activity in November, but private sector employment declined in line with expectations for a fourth-quarter economic slowdown. Currencies traded in a relatively narrow range with U.S. markets closing early the day after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. "It's incredibly quiet, as you'd expect on the day after Thanksgiving, with liquidity still pretty thin, and volumes again on the light side," said Michael Brown, market analyst at Trader X in London. "I think what we're seeing is a classic case of the market taking the 'path of least resistance.'" S&P Global said on Friday its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index was unchanged at 50.7 this month as a modest rise in services sector activity offset a contraction in manufacturing. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the private sector. The lack of strong order growth resulted in businesses shedding workers, with the survey's employment index dropping to 49.7 in the first contraction since June 2020 from 51.3 in October. An easing labor market will aid the Fed's fight against inflation. "Economic data have been producing a fair amount of evidence of a cyclical downturn in the US," Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank said in a note. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency with six peers, eased 0.4 % to 103.35 , staying close to the 2-1/2 month low of 103.17 touched earlier this week. For the week, the index was down 0.5%, after slipping 1.9% last week. The index is on course for its weakest monthly performance in a year on growing expectations the Federal Reserve is done with raising interest rates and could start cutting them next year. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen was about flat against the dollar at 149.45, after strengthening on news that Japan's core consumer price growth picked up slightly in October. The data reinforced investors' views that stubborn inflation may push the BOJ to roll back monetary stimulus before long. ING economists said they expect the BOJ to move away from its super-accommodative stance next year. "We believe that the BOJ may scrap the yield curve programme as early as the first quarter of next (year), as Japanese government bonds appear to have stabilised," they said. The bank will "then begin its first rate hike in Q2 2024 if wage growth continues to accelerate next year." The nationwide core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food costs, rose 2.9% year on year in October, government data showed on Friday, against 3.0% expected by economists in a Reuters poll. The euro was 0.39 % higher at $ 1.0946 after data confirmed an initial estimate published in late October that showed Germany's economy shrank slightly in the third quarter from the previous three months. German business morale improved for a third straight month in November, data showed. The single currency is pausing after gaining ground on Thursday on a series of preliminary surveys showing recession in Germany may be shallower than expected, which offset a downbeat reading on French business activity. Sterling rose 0.57 % to its highest since early September after data on Thursday showed British companies returned to growth in November, fuelling hopes Britain will avoid a recession. In cryptocurrency markets, bitcoin rose 1.14% to $37,728, its highest since May 2022. A spate of filings for spot bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), including from traditional finance heavyweights, has revived the crypto market which last year was crushed by a series of meltdowns. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-defensive-markets-weigh-us-rates-outlook-2023-11-24/

2023-11-24 05:41

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee A post-Thanksgiving caution is permeating markets with investors hesitant to place major bets ahead of what's likely to be a day of narrow range trading, although a four-day truce starting on Friday between Israel and Hamas may help sentiment. Japan's core consumer price growth picked up slightly in October, reinforcing investors' views that stubborn inflation may push the Bank of Japan to roll back monetary stimulus before long. The yen was little changed at 149.55 per dollar. The Asian currency has had a volatile two weeks, trading at near 33-year low of 151.92 at the start of last week before clawing back to a two-month high of 147.15 on Tuesday. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 0.54% but remained on course to clock a near 7% gain for November, its strongest monthly performance since January. Futures indicated European bourses were set for a muted open and with a bare economic calendar, markets are likely to drift as holiday season kicks off. For British consumers though, Black Friday is likely to be about hunting for refurbished and pre-owned bargains to save cash. In company news, the spotlight will be on Barclays (BARC.L) after Reuters reported that the British bank is working on plans to save as much as 1 billion pounds ($1.25 billion), which could involve cutting as many as 2,000 jobs, mainly in its back office. Israel and Hamas start a four-day truce on Friday morning with the release of a first group of 13 Israeli women and child hostages expected later in the day. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization said on Thursday that Chinese health authorities have not detected any unusual or novel pathogens and provided the requested data on an increase in respiratory illnesses and reported clusters of pneumonia in children. And we end with a victory for Britain in litter-picking World Cup where 21 teams from around the world gathered in Tokyo this week to collect litter in the inaugural SpoGomi World Cup, an initiative aimed at raising awareness of environmental issues. Key developments that could influence markets on Friday: Germany's Q3 GDP data, German lfo business climate data for November https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2023-11-24/

2023-11-24 05:35

MUMBAI, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee traded in a very narrow range early on Friday as traders looked for new cues that could spur some momentum in the local unit. The rupee was at 83.3575 against the U.S. dollar as of 10:45 a.m. IST, little changed from its close at 83.3475 in the previous session. The rupee was contained in a 83.3450-83.3650 range in the session so far. Asian currencies edged lower with the Korean won and Thai baht dipping by 0.4%. The dollar index was steady at 103.7 as global markets were largely muted following the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. The rupee is "likely to stay in the same 5-6 paisa range through the day," a foreign exchange trader at a private bank said. U.S. Treasury yields rose in Asia with the 10-year yield inching up to 4.46% and the 2-year ticking higher to 4.94%. While IPO-related inflows offered some support to the rupee during this week, the local unit was unable to gain much as sustained dollar demand from local companies kept up the pressure, traders said. Maiden share sales worth $900 million were lined up in the domestic market this week. "Lacklustre moves continue ... We will look for slippage below 83.26 to spot loss in strength (on USD/INR)," Anand James, chief market strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said. Investors now await U.S. inflation due next Thursday. October's core personal consumption expenditure (PCE)inflation, a closely watched inflation gauge, is expected to moderate to 0.2% month-on-month, from 0.3% in September, according to a Reuters poll. A lower than anticipated inflation print could cement bets that the Federal Reserve won't tighten policy rates further. Investors are currently pricing in possible Fed rate cuts in May or June. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/india-rupee-little-changed-traders-hunt-fresh-triggers-2023-11-24/

2023-11-24 05:10

Nov 24 (Reuters) - A meeting of more than 100 countries on Friday agreed to an interim goal for emissions reductions from global aviation by 2030 by using less-polluting fuels, but China, Russia and some others aired concerns about the impact on their economies. The goal, which came after five days of U.N.-led talks in Dubai, called for 5% lower carbon emissions through the use of cleaner energies like sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) by 2030, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) said. An earlier draft had a target of 5-8%. The United States told the closing session of the meeting, which was held ahead of next week's COP28 climate summit, that the goal sent a "clear and positive signal" to the financial community, which must invest in new clean energy projects. Aviation accounts for an estimated 2-3% of global carbon emissions. SAF is key toward reducing those emissions, but it is costly and amounts to less than 1% of total global jet fuel. Mauricio Ramirez Koppel, ICAO representative from Colombia, which is looking to produce SAF from materials like palm oil, said the 5% target "will kick-start and speed up SAF projects" by providing investors a clear objective. "Now it is up to the finance community and energy sector to support the necessary infrastructure and start delivering SAF in ever increasing quantities,” said Haldane Dodd, executive director of the Air Transport Action Group, which represents airframe and engine makers, among others. Aviation is not directly covered by the Paris Agreement on combating climate change, but the air transport sector has previously pledged to align itself with global goals by setting an "aspirational" target of net zero emissions by 2050. By bringing together broadly the same countries that are involved in COP28, analysts have said that this week's aviation talks offered an early glimpse of the scope for further cooperation. The deal followed wrangling over wording, particularly the transfer of technology that African and other emerging economies want to allow them to ramp up SAF production capacity. RESERVATIONS Some countries made clear their reservations. China, which has agreed to aim for carbon neutrality by 2060 rather than 2050, said the goal would "enormously increase" airline operating costs and discriminate against developing countries by posing a threat to energy and food security. Saudi Arabia and Iraq, two major Middle East oil producers and OPEC members, objected to both the target and the date. Environmentalists said agreement lacks teeth as it is not binding and would allow airlines to use lower-carbon fossil fuel. "ICAO has no mandate to enforce this target so it will likely end up in smoke," said Jo Dardenne, aviation director at the Brussels-based group Transport & Environment. "It is unclear how much and what type of fuels will need to be produced to reach this 5% target globally." The aviation industry estimates it will take between $1.45 trillion and $3.2 trillion for SAF capital development to achieve the sector's net zero emissions goal. Making access to financing more readily available to developing countries, another conference goal, is needed to bolster SAF output outside regions like the U.S. and Europe. Francis Mwangi, senior planning officer at Kenya's Civil Aviation Authority, said his country needs financing to study the economic benefits of domestic SAF production and for using an old Mombasa-based refinery to produce the fuel. "We are ready to move and produce SAF in Kenya," Mwangi told Reuters ahead of the conference. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/un-led-talks-weigh-goal-reduce-aviation-emissions-thorough-less-polluting-fuels-2023-11-24/

2023-11-24 04:54

Gold up above 1% so far this week Silver hits highest since Sept. 1 Platinum, palladium gain for second week Dollar declines for second week Nov 24 (Reuters) - Gold rose over the key $2,000 level on Friday, logging its second consecutive weekly gain, see-sawing against a weaker U.S. dollar on bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve is done with its interest rate-hiking cycle. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,001.97 per ounce by 2:30 p.m. ET (1930 GMT), and has risen over 1% so far this week. U.S. gold futures settled 0.5% higher at $2,003.00. The dollar index has been deteriorating due to the weaker data coming out this week which should shift the Fed to a more dovish pivot and then that could be a tailwind for gold in 2024, said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, in Chicago. The dollar index (.DXY) fell 0.4% and was on track for a second weekly drop on growing expectations the Fed could start cutting interest rates by May next year. "After all, the latest economic data have been rather disappointing," Commerzbank said in a note. Commerzbank expects the first rate cut to be implemented in the middle of next year, so only then is the price of gold likely to climb lastingly above $2,000. Traders widely expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged in December, while pricing in about a 64% chance of a cut as early as May, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. "We don't see either a significant move higher or lower in the short run into next year and it becomes more certain that the U.S. central bank is willing to cut interest rates and probably cut interest rates significantly before we reach the 2% inflation target," said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategies at TD Securities. Lower interest rates diminish the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold. Spot silver gained 2.7% to a 12-week high at $24.3 per ounce. Platinum rose 1.6% to $930.61 and palladium was up 2.2% to $1,068.83 per ounce, both heading for their second weekly gain. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-steadies-poised-second-weekly-gain-weaker-dollar-2023-11-24/