2023-11-24 04:22

Hamas hostage release, truce reduces geopolitical risk premium Oil notches weekly gain for first time in five weeks Trading subdued after Thursday's U.S. Thanksgiving holiday Nov 24 (Reuters) - Oil fell on Friday as the release of some hostages in Gaza reduced the geopolitical risk premium, but prices notched their first week of gains in over a month ahead of next week's OPEC+ meeting to decide on production cuts in 2024. Brent crude futures settled down 84 cents, or 1%, at $80.58 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $1.56, or 2%, from Wednesday's close to $75.54. There was no settlement for WTI on Thursday owing to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. The first group of hostages freed from captivity in Gaza returned to Israel on Friday, on the first day of a planned four-day truce during which further exchanges of hostages for Palestinian detainees are due to take place. "The fact that they followed through was significant for reducing the risk premium," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York. Both contracts had their first weekly gain in five weeks as OPEC+ prepares for a meeting that will have output cuts high on the agenda after recent oil price declines on demand concerns and burgeoning supply, particularly from non-OPEC producers. The OPEC+ group, comprising of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, surprised the market on Wednesday by delaying its Nov. 26 to Nov. 30 after producers struggled to reach a consensus on output levels. OPEC+ has moved closer to a compromise with African oil producers on 2024 output levels, three OPEC+ sources have told Reuters. "The most likely outcome now appears to be an extension of existing cuts," said IG analyst Tony Sycamore. The surprise delay had initially brought Brent futures down as much as 4% and WTI by as much as 5% in intraday trading on Wednesday. Trading remained subdued during Thursday's U.S. holiday. "While I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see leaks or comments over the weekend that still have an impact on the oil price on the open next week, the actual meeting now occurring Thursday could put traders' minds somewhat at ease," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA. A bright spot came in the form of the near-term economic outlook in China. Recent Chinese data and fresh aid to the indebted property sector can be "positive for the oil market's near-term trend", said CMC Markets analyst Tina Teng. Yet those gains could be capped by higher U.S. crude stockpiles and poor refining margins, leading to weaker demand from U.S. refineries, analysts said. "Fundamentals developments have been bearish with rising U.S. oil inventories," ANZ analysts said in a note. Still, China's longer-term outlook remains lukewarm. Analysts say oil demand growth could weaken to about 4% in the first half of 2024 as the property sector crunch weighs on diesel use. Non-OPEC production growth is set to remain strong, with Brazilian state energy company Petrobras planning to invest $102 billion over the next five years to boost output to 3.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) by 2028, up from 2.8 million boepd in 2024. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/brent-climbs-ahead-opec-oil-production-decision-2023-11-24/

2023-11-24 03:10

MUMBAI, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to open little changed on Friday and be driven by local demand for U.S. dollars during the session, after global markets were largely muted due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open at around 82.32-83.33 to the U.S. dollar, barely changed from 83.3425 in the previous session. "Expecting another session with tight range," a foreign exchange trader at a state-run bank said. "Some higher demand can be seen on account of Thursday's US holiday and Monday's INR holiday." Indian markets will be closed on Monday on account of a local holiday. Asian currencies were largely subdued and the dollar index was little changed at 103.78. The dollar index appears to be on a course for a quiet week after having fallen almost 2% last week. U.S. Treasury yields rose in Asia with the 10-year yield inching up to 4.45% and the 2-year ticking higher to 4.93%. The rupee is likely to stay flat on Friday "lacking any significant triggers," said Arnob Biswas, head of foreign exchange research at SMC Global Securities. But there is a potential for a relief rally in the rupee next week, driven by dollar sales from exporters, Biswas added. Equity inflows worth about $1.5 billion related to the rebalancing of MSCI index effective from Nov 30 could provide more support the rupee in the coming week. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.38; onshore one-month forward premium at 6.50 paisa ** Dollar index up at 103.77 ** Brent crude futures up 0.4% at $81.7 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.46% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $163.8mln worth of Indian shares on Nov. 22 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $156.4mln worth of Indian bonds on Nov. 22 https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-gauge-local-dollar-demand-amid-us-india-holidays-2023-11-24/

2023-11-24 00:05

LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - British investment managers have got the go-ahead to develop tokenised funds, in which assets are split into smaller tokens backed by blockchain technology, the industry's trade body said on Friday. Tokenisation, or fractionalisation, of funds will enable a fund's assets to trade more cheaply and transparently and investors to buy into a wider range of assets, industry proponents say. Funds authorised by Britain's Financial Conduct Authority can take the first steps towards offering tokenised funds, provided the investments are in mainstream assets and valuation and settlement arrangements don't change, the Investment Association said in a statement. "Fund tokenisation has great potential to revolutionise how our industry operates, by enabling greater efficiency and liquidity, enhanced risk management and the creation of more bespoke portfolios," said Michelle Scrimgeour, chief executive of Legal & General Investment Management . Scrimgeour is chair of a working group which is working with the FCA and Britain's finance ministry to open up opportunities for tokenised funds. Other members of the working group include BlackRock (BLK.N), M&G (MNG.L) and Schroders (SDR.L) Blockchain is a digital ledger that records ownership of tokens. So far, its main use has been for cryptocurrencies, which remain a relatively small part of the global financial system. Britain is looking to bolster liquidity in its asset management sector in a revamp of its rules following Brexit. Investment managers and exchanges in the United States, Europe and Asia have already taken tentative steps in offering tokenised funds. https://www.reuters.com/markets/british-investment-managers-get-green-light-tokenised-funds-2023-11-24/

2023-11-23 23:41

RIO DE JANEIRO, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Brazil's Petrobras will invest around $102 billion within the 2024-2028 period, the firm's new strategic plan showed on Thursday, representing a major boost in expected investments by the state-run oil company. The plan, the first released by the oil giant since CEO Jean Paul Prates took the helm of the company, includes investments in a range of different segments, with most of it going into oil exploration and production. The figure represents a 31% leap from the $78 billion Petrobras had announced in its previous plan for the 2023-2027 period. "We increased Petrobras' total investments responsibly, focusing on capital discipline and commitment to keeping debt under control," said Prates in a statement. Petrobras attributed the hike mainly to new ventures - including potential acquisitions - and reincorporating assets which the previous administration had put up for sale, as well as the cost of inflation, which Petrobras said impacted the entire supply chain. The boost is also partly due to an additional $11 billion earmarked for projects Petrobras is still analyzing. The firm had not previously disclosed the figure. Exploration and production will make up 72% of the spending, with production set to increase from 2.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boed) in 2024 to 3.2 million boed by 2028. About $7.5 billion is budgeted for exploration, including $3.1 billion for exploration at the Equatorial Margin, which Petrobras considers its most promising new frontier for oil and gas exploration. The firm will invest $17 billion in refining, transportation and commercialization. Petrobras said the plan marks its return to the fertilizer sector, resuming operations at one plant and completing construction on a second one. Low-carbon initiatives also gained a boost, with $11.5 billion flagged, or more than double the amount set aside under the previous plan, said the firm. The initiatives include decarbonization efforts as well as developments in low-carbon energy, with emphasis on biorefining, wind, solar, carbon capture and storage and hydrogen, said the firm. Investment in the sector should increase over the years, said Petrobras, with low-carbon initiatives comprising 6% of its spending in 2024 and climbing to 16% by 2028. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had met with Prates several times ahead of the plan's publication, requesting tweaks to boost job creation in the country. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/brazils-petrobras-invest-102-billion-next-five-years-2023-11-23/

2023-11-23 21:52

Nov 23 (Reuters) - A major Panama copper mine run by Canada's First Quantum Minerals (FM.TO) is not operating at commercial levels, a spokesman said on Thursday, following blockades by protesters at a key port that have prevented the miner from receiving shipments of coal that power the site and other supplies. Operations are set to resume once the port blockade is resolved, the spokesman added. Cobre Panama produced 112,734 metric tons of copper in the third quarter of 2023, and contributed $930 million to the firm's overall third-quarter revenue of $2.02 billion. Protests have escalated since the government and First Quantum signed a new contract on Oct. 20 for the Cobre Panama concession, which contributes 1% to global copper production and 5% to Panama's gross domestic product. Protesters have argued the contract favors the miner too much and allege corrupt practices in its approval. "In terms of production we are talking about a temporary halt because of the illegal blockade. As soon as the port reopens, we will be able to ramp production back up quickly," the company said in a statement to Reuters when asked about the mine's status earlier this week. The company says an "illegal blockade" of small boats at the mine's Punta Rincon port has been disrupting the mine's activity. Michael Camacho, a leader of the mine workers' union, told Reuters that workers started to leave the mine earlier on Thursday due to the lack of supplies to work. "As a union, we are very worried," he said. Challenges against First Quantum's contract have been filed to Panama's top court, which is set to hear the legality of the contract awarded to the miner from Nov. 24. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/first-quantums-panama-mine-not-operating-commercial-production-levels-2023-11-23/

2023-11-23 21:47

TORONTO, Nov 24 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. With Wall Street shut for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Asian investors will miss the usual swing factor. Instead, Friday's release of Japan's core inflation data for October will set the tone for trading in the region. Japan's core consumer inflation likely accelerated again in October, staying above the central bank's 2% price target for a 19th straight month, according to a Reuters poll. With inflation already exceeding the Bank of Japan's target for more than a year, the latest data may influence the central bank's widely expected decision to raise short-term interest rates to around zero from -0.1 next year with some betting on the chance of action in January. And upside surprise could buoy the yen against the dollar. The BOJ faces challenges in navigating Japan away from the extremely accommodative policy of the past decade without causing market turmoil or squashing a fragile economic recovery. In China, property stocks are likely to be in focus again on expectations Beijing would offer a range of financing to support the struggling sector. It's a different inflation tale on the other side of the world, with the European Central Bank satisfied with the easing price pressures in the euro zone. That made the ECB's decision to hold rates steady in October an easy task, according to the accounts of their Oct. 25 to 26 meeting released on Thursday showed. Stocks in Europe ended firmer, with the ECB news cementing the view that the global central banks are done with their latest tightening campaign, and if price pressures ease, 2024 could be the year of rate cuts. But some of the inflation-easing trade is already priced into the market, reflected in the near 11% rally in the MSCI world index (.WORLD) in the past 18 trading days. And markets need new triggers to fuel the next leg of the equities rally. One factor could be the resilience of American consumers, who have continued to open their wallets despite higher borrowing costs. The Black Friday sale will kick off the year-end holiday shopping season and will put to test the U.S. consumers' appetite for spending. Early indications are that U.S. retailers across apparel, electronics and home improvement are bracing for challenging times, and higher discounts might not spark the level of spending the companies are hoping for. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday: - Japan CPI - Singapore industrial production - Malaysia CPI - New Zealand retail sales - Thailand manufacturing production index - Taiwan money supply https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/global-markets-view-asia-pix-2023-11-23/