2023-11-08 06:01

Palladium hits lowest level since 2018 Geopolitical risk premium gained by gold erodes -analyst Nov 8 (Reuters) - Gold prices retreated for a third straight session on Wednesday as investors looked for fresh cues on the U.S. central bank's interest rate stance, while palladium hit a five-year low. Spot gold was down 1% at $1,947.89 per ounce by 3:01 p.m. ET (2001 GMT), logging its biggest daily drop since Oct. 2. U.S. gold futures settled 0.8% lower at $1,957.8. Silver fell 0.5% to $22.52 per ounce. "Traders will start looking at economic data and potential actions from the U.S. central bank. Gold will react based on whatever the data is showing," said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities. "It is hard to see a catalyst for further upside in gold without a notable deterioration in the data." A slew of Federal Reserve officials on Tuesday maintained a balanced tone on the central bank's next decision, but noted they would focus on more economic data and impact of higher long-term bond yields. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at 2:00 p.m. ET on Thursday. Gold is sensitive to rising U.S. interest rates, as they increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. "The risk premium gold gained from the Israel-Hamas war is eroding. If you see an escalation in the conflict, then gold can get some momentum behind it," said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago. Bullion gained over 7% in October as the conflict in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand. Elsewhere, palladium hit its lowest levels since 2018 at $1,007.73 earlier in the session and was down 0.5% at 1,050.06. Platinum eased 2.8% to $866.31. In the palladium market, "demand is evaporating at pretty fast pace led by smaller production of internal combustion engines and it is also being substituted with platinum in auto catalysts components," Ghali added. Both metals are used in emissions-controlling devices in cars. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/firmer-dollar-weighs-gold-spotlight-shifts-powells-speech-2023-11-08/

2023-11-08 05:43

MUMBAI, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was little changed on Wednesday as a drop in oil prices and strength in Asia currencies failed to budge the local unit in the face of persistent local U.S. dollar demand. The rupee was at 83.25 against the U.S. dollar as of 10:18 a.m. IST, compared with its close of 83.2575 in the previous session. Asian currencies rose, aided by a drop in U.S. yields after U.S. Federal Reserve officials struck a balanced note on Tuesday in their comments on inflation and the likely path of interest rates. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 9 basis points (bps) on Tuesday and was last quoted slightly higher at 4.59%. Brent crude oil futures dropped to their lowest level since late July on Tuesday as rising OPEC exports helped ease supply fears and Chinese economic data raised concerns about the country's oil demand. However, the rupee continued to have a muted reaction to the positive cues. "We had not reacted when oil price was up so there is a nullifying effect when they fall," said Dilip Parmar, a foreign exchange analyst at HDFC Securities. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) interventions capped the rupee's decline when Brent crude oil futures rose above $90 in October. Continued dollar demand from local corporates and oil companies is maintaining pressure on the rupee, a foreign exchange trader at a private bank said. The rupee is likely to stick to its prevailing range unless something changes dramatically, they added. Overall, the local unit is expected to keep hovering near 83.25 over the coming month, according to a Reuters poll of 42 FX strategists. But more than 30% of the polled strategists still expect the rupee to touch a new low by end-January. Investors now await remarks from Fed chairperson Jerome Powell who is slated to speak later in the day and may offer cues on the central bank's policy trajectory. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-unable-capitalise-oil-price-drop-positive-asian-fx-2023-11-08/

2023-11-08 05:40

Nov 7 (Reuters) - U.S. voters on Tuesday cast ballots to choose governors in Kentucky and Mississippi, decide legislative control in Virginia and New Jersey, and determine whether the Ohio state constitution should protect abortion rights. Republicans and Democrats were watching results in key races for clues about the 2024 elections. KENTUCKY GOVERNOR Democratic Governor Andy Beshear won reelection, Edison Research projected, defeating Republican state Attorney General Daniel Cameron in a state that voted for Republican Donald Trump by more than 25 percentage points in 2020. One of the few Democratic governors in Republican-leaning states, Beshear had touted his record of bringing jobs to Kentucky, supporting public education, expanding healthcare access and setting strict policies to curb the spread of COVID-19 on the campaign trail. As governor, he has vetoed legislation banning abortion and gender-affirming care for transgender youth, although those vetoes were overridden by the Republican-dominated legislature. MISSISSIPPI GOVERNOR Republican Governor Tate Reeves won his bid for reelection against Democrat Brandon Presley, a second cousin of singer Elvis Presley and a utility regulator for Northern Mississippi, Edison Research projected. Reeves had consistently led the polls in the deeply conservative Southern state, which has not elected a Democrat as governor in 20 years. He accused Presley of being backed by out-of-state liberals and opposing bans on gender-affirming care for transgender youth like the one Reeves signed into law in February. Presley had said he did not support gender-affirming care for minors and ran on the promise of tax cuts and expanding Medicaid. Both candidates said they were anti-abortion. VIRGINIA LEGISLATURE All 40 seats in Virginia's Senate and 100 seats in the House of Delegates were up for grabs. Democrats held control of the Senate and won control of the House, the Associated Press reported. The Democrats' sweep thwarts the possibility of a new 15-week abortion ban - supported by Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin - that Republicans had vowed to pass had they won control of the legislature. Virginia, a state that swings between Democratic and Republican control, is the only state in the U.S. South that has not enacted further limits on abortion since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022. NEW JERSEY LEGISLATURE Republicans were fighting for control of either legislative chamber in solidly Democratic New Jersey, where all seats in the General Assembly and Senate are in play. Republicans have gained ground since 2021, when they flipped seven seats, and are campaigning on issues ranging from the economy to parental rights in K-12 education. The results were still coming in Tuesday night, with the late reception deadline for mail-in ballots likely to cause a delay. OHIO ABORTION RIGHTS Ohioans voted to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, Edison Research projected, which will render moot a six-week abortion limit signed into law by Republican Governor Mike DeWine. The ban is currently on hold pending litigation at the conservative state Supreme Court. The success of Ohio's ballot measure initiative, which put the question of abortion rights to voters directly, adds to a string of ballot measure victories for abortion rights supporters since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. It also inspires hope among Democrats nationwide that the issue will continue to galvanize voters in 2024. OHIO MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION Ohio voters also approved a ballot measure legalizing marijuana for recreational use. The statute will legalize, regulate and tax marijuana for adults over 21, expanding on the currently legal medicinal use of cannabis. MAYORAL RACES Democrat Cherelle Parker was elected mayor of Philadelphia, beating Republican David Oh. A former city council member, she will succeed Democrat Jim Kenney after he reaches the limit of his term and become the first woman to serve as the city's mayor. In Houston, U.S. Representative Sheila Jackson Lee and state Senator John Whitmire, both Democrats, advanced to a Dec. 9 run-off after no candidate in the crowded field won a majority of the vote. They will compete to succeed the term-limited Mayor Sylvester Turner, also a Democrat. PENNSYLVANIA SUPREME COURT Democratic candidate Daniel McCaffery won the open seat on Pennsylvania's Supreme Court, according to the Associated Press, defeating Republican Carolyn Carluccio for the 10-year position. His victory widens the Democratic majority on the state's highest court to 5-2. The race had been closely watched for the implications it may have on abortion rights and election laws in the state. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-election-day-guide-governor-races-abortion-rights-more-2023-11-02/

2023-11-08 05:34

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland Markets are largely in a holding pattern, with investors looking to two days of commentary from Fed Chair Jay Powell starting later in the day for a steer on whether U.S. rate hikes are indeed done. Last week's surprisingly soft jobs data heightened expectations that interest rates had peaked, but Fed commentary since then has warned against complacency in the fight against inflation. For now, investors have dialled up wagers on near-term rate cuts, with the Fed funds rate showing better than 50/50 odds for one as early as May. The dollar's prospects have also softened in line with the more sanguine outlook on rates. In Asia time, long-term Treasury yields are stuck around 4.58% and the dollar is biding its time around $1.07 per euro. Regional equities weren't offering much steer for the European open, putting in a mixed performance. Generally, tech shares were up and energy shares were down, with crude oil sagging to multi-month lows. While the Fed outlook dominates investors' attention, there is plenty of central bank speak in store from Europe as well. ECB President Christine Lagarde, ECB chief economist Philip Lane, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, Bank of Spain Governor Pablo Hernandez de Cos and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, among others, take the podium at various events around the region. Meanwhile, euro area finance ministers will be meeting to discuss inflation and policy coordination. A busy day on the corporate calendar as well, including earnings from Adidas, Airbus, Bayer, Continental and Credit Agricole - and that's just from the first three letters of the alphabet. Germany has consumer inflation data and there are retail sales figures for the euro region. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday: -Fed's Powell gives opening remarks before the Federal Reserve Division of Research and Statistics Centennial Conference -ECB's Lagarde participates in Eurogroup meeting in Brussels -BoE's Bailey speaks at Irish central bank conference -Germany HICP final (Oct) -Euro area retail sales (Sep) https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2023-11-08/

2023-11-08 05:06

LONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Global fossil fuel production in 2030 is set to be more than double the levels that are deemed consistent with meeting climate goals set under the 2015 Paris climate agreement, the United Nations and researchers said on Wednesday. The United Nations Environment Programme's (UNEP) report, assessing the gap in fossil fuel production cuts and what’s needed to meet climate goals comes ahead of the global COP 28 climate meeting which starts on Nov. 30 in the oil-rich United Arab Emirates (UAE). "Fossil fuel phase out is one of the pivotal issues that will be negotiated at COP 28," Ploy Achakulwisut, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) scientist and a lead author of the report said in a press briefing. "We need countries to commit to a phase out of all fossil fuels to keep the 1.5C goal alive," she said. Under the Paris pact, nations have committed to a long-term goal of limiting average temperature rises to less than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to attempt to limit them even further to 1.5C. While scientists say fossil fuel use must be reduced to meet the goal, countries have failed to reach any international agreement on set phase out dates for unabated coal, gas or oil use. The report analysed the 20 major fossil fuel producers and found they plan to produce, in total, around 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting the degree of warming to 1.5C, and 69% more than is consistent with 2C. None of the 20 countries have committed to reduce coal, oil, and gas production in line with limiting warming to 1.5°C the report said. It said 17 of the countries have pledged to reach net zero emissions but most continue to promote, subsidise, support and plan the expansion of fossil fuel production. The 20 countries analysed account for 82% of global fossil fuel production and 73% of consumption, the report said and include Australia, China, Norway, Qatar, Britain, the UAE and the United States. The report was produced by UNEP, as well as experts from the SEI, the International Institute for Sustainable Development and think-tank E3G and policy institute Climate Analytics. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/global-fossil-fuel-production-plans-far-exceed-climate-targets-un-says-2023-11-08/

2023-11-08 04:02

BEIJING, Nov 8 (Reuters) - China will resolutely guard against overshooting risks of the yuan exchange rate, People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Pan Gongsheng said, according to a report on Wednesday by Financial News, a newspaper owned by the PBOC. The comments come as the Chinese yuan has lost more than 5% so far this year to become one of the worst performing Asian currencies, in light of the widening yield differentials with other major economies and an uneven domestic economic recovery. China will prevent the formation of one-sided and self-reinforced market expectations in the Chinese yuan, Pan said at a financial forum in Beijing. Despite losses against the greenback, Pan said the yuan's value against a basket of currencies was largely stable, while the yuan appreciated slightly versus other non-dollar currencies. The yuan's trade-weighted CFETS yuan basket index (.CFSCNYI) stood at 98.49 on Wednesday, down 0.18% year-to-date, according to Reuters calculation based on official data. Pan also reiterated that China is capable of maintaining the prudent operations of the foreign exchange market and the yuan will be basically stable, reasonable and balanced. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-will-guard-against-yuan-overshooting-risks-pboc-publication-2023-11-08/