2023-11-23 06:33

Prices continue to fall after previous session's plunge Meeting delay stokes expectations OPEC+ might not deepen cuts Delay likely to be linked to dissenting African members -sources Nov 23 (Reuters) - Oil prices dipped about 1% on Thursday, extending losses on expectations that OPEC+ might not deepen output cuts next year after the producer group postponed its policy meeting. Brent crude futures were down 68 cents, or about 0.8%, at $81.28 a barrel by 2024 GMT after falling as much as 4% on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude slid 75 cents, or 1%, to $76.35 after dropping as much as 5% in the previous session. Trading activity was muted because of the U.S. Thanksgiving public holiday. In a surprise move on Wednesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia delayed a ministerial meeting at which they were expected to discuss oil output cuts to Nov. 30. Producers were struggling to agree on output levels ahead of the meeting originally set for Nov. 26, OPEC+ sources said, suggesting that the disagreement was largely linked to African nations. OPEC+ members Angola and Nigeria are aiming for higher oil output, officials told Reuters on Thursday. "We think Nigeria can be assuaged as the leadership values its longstanding OPEC membership and improving ties with Saudi Arabia," said RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft. "However, it may be more difficult to bridge the gap with Angola, which has been a moodier member of the producer group since it joined in 2007." The downside move looked overdone and the market will likely rally somewhat next week once traders return from the Thanksgiving holiday, said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. The questions over OPEC+ supply come as data showed that U.S. crude stocks jumped by 8.7 million barrels last week, much more than the 1.16 million build analysts had expected. On the demand side, there was more bleak news. Though a survey showed the downturn in euro zone business activity eased in November, data suggested the bloc's economy will contract again this quarter as consumers continue to rein in spending. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-down-1-bearish-view-delayed-opec-meeting-2023-11-23/

2023-11-23 06:25

SILKYARA, India, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Rescuers in India hope to finish drilling through debris on Thursday and free 41 men trapped in a highway tunnel in the Himalayan region after a metal obstacle slowed progress, officials said. The men began the twelfth day of their ordeal confined in the 4.5-km (3-mile) tunnel in Uttarakhand state since it caved in early on Nov. 12. Authorities have said they are safe, with access to light, oxygen, food, water and medicines. "Hopefully, by the end of the day, if there are no obstacles, rocks or girders, the operation should be successful," Atul Karwal, head of the National Disaster Response Force, told reporters. An auger drilling machine has resumed operation, and "that is a very good sign", he said, adding that work to push through more evacuation pipes had also begun. Rescuers had expected to drill through the last third of the 60 m (197 ft) of debris blocking the tunnel early on Thursday, but had hit a lattice steel girder arch that took six hours to remove, said Bhaskar Khulbe, a tunnel project official. Once the drill breaks through, officials said they plan to send rescuers through the evacuation pipe, using stretchers on wheels, to bring out the trapped men. Ambulances were ready to take the men to a hospital about 30 km (20 miles) away on a route cleared of congestion. Authorities have not said what caused the tunnel collapse, but the region is prone to landslides, earthquakes and floods. Efforts to bring the men out have been slowed by snags in drilling in the mountainous terrain. "We are very close. You all have been very brave. Everyone is praying for you," Pushkar Singh Dhami, the state's chief minister, told Gabbar Singh Negi, one of those trapped, via a wired communication link, in a video clip shared by authorities. He told another man, Saba Ahmed, that there were just 10 metres (33 ft) left to be covered, adding, "Looks like it won't take too long now." The collapsed tunnel is on the Char Dham pilgrimage route, one of the most ambitious projects of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government. It aims to link four key Hindu pilgrimage sites with 890 km (550 miles) of two-lane road, at a cost of $1.5 billion. Following the collapse, the National Highways Authority of India will do a safety audit of 29 tunnels it is building, the government has said. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-rescue-effort-41-trapped-tunnel-breaks-through-steel-obstacle-2023-11-23/

2023-11-23 06:12

KYIV/PARIS, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Ukraine's efforts to revive sea exports in defiance of Russia's military blockade have given a glimmer of hope to a teetering farm sector in which loss-making producers are abandoning some land in one of the world's biggest grain belts. With no end in sight to the war with Russia, access to the Black Sea is critical if Ukraine is to preserve an agricultural industry that was the fourth-largest grain supplier globally before the conflict and in value terms accounted for half of Ukraine's total exports last year. While makeshift export routes and abundant supply elsewhere have tamed record global food prices since last year, the strain on Ukrainian agriculture has worsened as a UN-backed export deal collapsed and EU neighbours baulked at land shipments. Agriculture has suffered losses of over $25 billion since the war began, Ukrainian grain trader association UGA estimates. Ukraine's grain exports so far in the 2023/24 season that started in July are running 28% below the year-earlier volume, according to agriculture ministry data. The area planted with corn, its flagship grain export, has shrunk by a quarter since the start of the war and total crop planting could suffer a double-digit decline in 2024, producers say, as cash-strapped farms leave some land idle. A new Black Sea shipping channel may offer a lifeline, like for Ukraine's depleted steel industry. "The sea corridor is essential for Ukrainian farming to survive," Jean-Francois Lepy, head of grain trading at French agribusiness group InVivo, said. "Without a corridor there is going to be a serious problem in 2024/2025," he said on the sidelines of this month's Global Grain conference in Geneva. The "humanitarian corridor" established by Ukraine's military in late August has expanded steadily, with Kyiv estimating over 3 million tons of grain shipped so far. Its future remains clouded by military risks, with several vessels struck by mines or missiles, but Ukrainian producers are encouraged. "It gives us breakeven because before the ports opened almost everyone was loss-making," Dmitry Skornyakov, CEO of farm operator HarvEast. EXPORT ROUTES Ukrainian producers see scope to reach 2-2.5 million tons of monthly grain exports through the corridor, which combined with volumes through land routes and transhipment via the Danube river could bring overall trade back towards a pre-war rhythm of 5-6 million tons per month. Spike Brokers, which tracks exports in Ukraine, said on Nov. 1-17 Ukraine exported 404,000 tons of agricultural goods via the Danube and 352,000 tons from Black Sea ports. An additional 943,000 tons should leave from Black Sea ports and 464,000 tons from the Danube by the month-end. "The situation in the coming months will be better than in September and October, as large ships are starting to arrive and the number of insurance companies that insure risks is growing," said Denys Marchuk, deputy head of the Agrarian Council, Ukraine's largest agribusiness group. Some in the market are cautious given the still perilous security situation. A Russian missile strike on port infrastructure in Odesa on Nov. 21 added to a series of attacks on Ukraine's Black Sea and Danube grain ports. Despite expansion at Romania's Constanta port, trade via the EU remains dogged by logistical bottlenecks and tensions with Kyiv's neighbours. Border protests by Polish lorry drivers have slowed food exports this month. PLANTING DILEMMA The new growing season could be a tipping point. Winter wheat sowing will be down almost 10% on year, Ukraine's agriculture ministry estimates, with a dry start to autumn adding to farmers' problems. HarvEast plans to leave uncultivated more than 10% of the 34,000 hectares it currently operates as it sacrifices less fertile fields seen as generating more losses, Skornyakov said, forecasting a general trend of 10-20% of unplanted land next year versus 3-5% this year. Yuriy Stelmakh, a grower in northern Ukraine, said his farm drilled 30% less area with winter crops due to a lack of funds. Ukraine's agri-food industry is trying to adapt. Farmers have planted more oilseed crops like sunflower that can offer better margins, while high world sugar prices and cheap local grain to feed poultry have spurred exports of those products. But as the war drags on, the sector faces a lack of visibility, labour shortages and structurally low prices, said Roman Gorobets, director of FE ASTRA in central Ukraine. A huge wheat surplus in Russia and record corn and soybean harvests in Brazil have helped the world adapt to stop-start Ukrainian exports. A trade gap may be felt next year, though, if weather hits Brazilian crops and the Kremlin intervenes further in Russian exports. Ukraine has sharply reduced exports of farm goods to Asian and African countries this year, according to agricultural business association UCAB. Major importer Egypt has various supply sources for wheat, but few alternatives to Ukraine for corn and vegetable oil, Hesham Soliman, president of Egyptian merchant Mediterranean Star, said. Much hangs on the spring planting season and whether Ukrainian growers cut back further on corn, relatively costly to produce. "I don't think the world can afford for Ukraine's agriculture to suffer. We do need them, particularly on the corn side," said Scott Wellcome, director of grains risk management at GoodMills, Europe's largest miller. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-farmers-pin-hopes-export-corridor-war-cost-mounts-2023-11-23/

2023-11-23 06:12

U.S. weekly jobless claims fall; labor market still slowing U.S. 10-year Treasury yields at two-month low Nov 23 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged up on Thursday as the U.S. dollar ticked lower, but investors remained largely on the sidelines in holiday-thinned trading with uncertainty around the Federal Reserve's rate path. Spot gold was up 0.1% to $1,991.79 per ounce at 3:22 p.m. ET (2022 GMT). U.S. gold futures were flat at $1,993.30. "Absent any fresh influences, I still don't think that gold has the momentum to maintain prices much above $2,000 for the rest of the year," said StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell. "Underlying forces are still supportive for the longer term - geopolitics, especially the Middle East and the probability of further banking stresses in the States and elsewhere - but unless either or both of these escalate, we are likely to see prices drift." Supporting gold, the dollar (.DXY) eased 0.1% against a basket of other major currencies. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields closed at a two-month low on Wednesday. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold. Trading is expected to be thin with most U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. "Dollar is slightly cooling down after yesterday's (economic) data, but it's very feeble... it's just a normal market movement amidst lower liquidity," said ActivTrades senior analyst Ricardo Evangelista. Investors dialled back expectations of rate cuts in 2024 after data on Wednesday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week. "The uncertainty in relation to what the Fed will do next will persist for a bit longer," said Evangelista. Fed officials agreed at their most recent policy meeting that they would proceed "carefully" and only raise interest rates if progress in controlling inflation faltered, the minutes of the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 gathering showed on Tuesday. Spot silver rose 0.2% to $23.66 per ounce, platinum fell 0.7% to $915.55 and palladium dropped 1.1% to $1,045.79. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-ticks-higher-weaker-us-dollar-yields-lend-support-2023-11-23/

2023-11-23 06:10

Euro boosted by forecast-beating PMI data, ECB minutes show cautious optimism on inflation World stocks on course for best month since COVID vaccine boost Europe digesting far-right election win in Holland Oil slips after OPEC+ postponement U.S. stock markets closed for Thanksgiving LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - World equity markets added to their best month since the COVID vaccine breakthroughs of late 2020 on Thursday as Europe digested another far-right election shock and oil skidded after OPEC+ postponed its weekend meeting. Traders were getting their moves in despite the annual U.S. Thanksgiving holiday scything volumes but there was plenty to keep them busy while they did it. Slightly stronger than expected German, French and UK PMI data nudged the euro , sterling and bond yields higher, Sweden's crown dropped as its central bank left rates on hold while Dutch bank stocks fell after anti-European Union far-right populist Geert Wilders scored a huge election win. The PMI beats were "not enough to say we have turned the corner on the economy," said Close Brothers Asset Management chief investment officer Robert Alster, adding that activity in Germany and France had still contracted. "Holland is a genuine surprise as a win for the right, but I suspect the market will wait to see what happens in terms of a coalition." A fan of Hungary's eurosceptic Prime Minister Viktor Orban, the vocally anti-Islam Wilders has vowed to halt all immigration, slash Dutch payments to the EU and block the entrance of any new members, including Ukraine. Beating all predictions, his Freedom Party (PVV) won 37 seats out of 150, well ahead of 25 for a joint Labour/Green ticket and 24 for the conservative People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) of outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte. ECB MINUTES For traders, the next thing was the minutes of the European Central Bank's most recent meeting that showed cautious optimism about their inflation fighting efforts. "Overall, the process of disinflation seemed to be proceeding largely as expected," the ECB said. "If anything, the disinflation process was proceeding somewhat faster than expected." Turkey's central bank also flashed its recently reacquired inflation-fighting credentials by raising its policy rates by another punchy 500 basis points (bps) to 40% having been just 8.5% in early June before the reelection of President Tayyip Erdogan. U.S. traders were eyeing their Thanksgiving meals rather than dealing, while in Asia overnight the focus had been signs of more help coming for China's long-suffering property market. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) ended up 0.3% in thin trading, with Japan also on holiday, though Chinese real estate stocks (.CSI000952) jumped 3% on reports debt-laden Country Garden (2007.HK) would be on a list of developers getting support. Meanwhile, a large wealth manager with heavy exposure to the property market disclosed that it faces insolvency with relevant liabilities of up to $64 billion. Chinese government advisers will recommend to an annual policymakers' meeting that economic growth targets for next year be set at 4.5% to 5.5%, Reuters had reported on Wednesday. Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) is nearing a fresh high for 2023 and both it and MSCI's all-country world index (.MIWD00000PUS) are both up more than 8% this month alone. For the MSCI world index, that is the best showing since November 2020 when COVID-19 vaccine hopes were driving markets wild. Germany's 10-year bund , the benchmark for Europe, was set to close around 5 bps higher on the day at 2.62% having touched 3% last month. Ten-year U.S. Treasuries are now at 4.4% compared with their October peak of 5%. The euro's bounce pushed the dollar index back down towards a 2-1/2 month low having moved away from it on Wednesday after the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected. Sterling also recovered from a knock it had taken on Wednesday when UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt unveiled a string of tax cuts in his autumn budget, but also forecast a far more sluggish economic outlook than previously expected. In commodity markets, news that OPEC+ had postponed a weekend meeting sent both Brent and U.S. WTI down as much 2% to $80.70 and $76.03 per barrel respectively on expectations it might see the group cut output less than anticipated. In cryptocurrencies, buyers were still digesting the news of Binance chief Changpeng Zhao stepping down and pleading guilty to violations of U.S. anti-money laundering laws as part of a $4 billion settlement. Bitcoin fell by 0.8% to $37,117 after rising nearly 5% on Wednesday. https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2023-11-23/

2023-11-23 06:01

H1 HEPS hit by power cuts, constrained spend, high promotions Same store sales down 0.8% excluding acquisition CFO sees improved second half performance Shares up 11% JOHANNESBURG, Nov 23 (Reuters) - Mr Price (MRPJ.J) shares jumped 11% on Thursday after the South African budget fashion retailer posted a smaller than expected drop in first-half profit and forecast an improved performance in the second half, which includes holiday trade. Shares in the group, which also sells homewares and sports clothing and equipment, hit a 9-1/2 month high of 164 rand. Mr Price said its first-half performance was hit by power cuts, a highly promotional retail environment and the impact of double-digit inflation in food and transport on its value-focussed customers. Casparus Treurnicht, portfolio manager at Gryphon Asset Management, said the market had expected far worse news after a gloomy July trading update. "Investors seem to project that one of the most difficult periods in Mr Price's life is over following the double bottom seen in the price lately," he added. Wayne McCurrie, portfolio manager with FNB, said the market was also reacting to "the good momentum carried into the third quarter," as Mr Price's November sales had shown an improvement. Mr Price reported headline earnings per share of 449.9 cents for the 26 weeks ended Sept. 30, down 9.3% from 496 cents a year earlier. Its gross profit margin declined by 170 basis points to 38.6%, impacted by higher markdowns required to clear excess inventory, while retail sales, excluding acquisitions, grew 3.8%. Comparable store sales fell 0.8% in the half year. Chief Executive Mark Blair told investors that although consumers were likely to remain under pressure into 2024, with electricity supply risks remaining and local port and logistics instability increasing, "we're cautious, but optimistic." The group expects an improved sales trend and gross profit margin levels in the second half, finance chief Praneel Nundkumar said. Blair wants to protect margins during the "Golden Quarter", or final holiday quarter of the year, by not offering deep promotions, he said. ($1 = 18.3689 rand) https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/power-cuts-hit-south-africas-mr-price-half-year-profit-2023-11-23/