2023-10-30 11:39

Jan-Sept crude oil output up 4.3%; overseas output up 22% Natural gas output up 6.1% Jan-Sept refinery throughput up 16.5% yr/yr Fuel sales up 13.4% Oct 30 (Reuters) - Asia's largest oil and gas producer PetroChina Co Ltd reported 21% year-on-year growth in third-quarter net profit that hit a record high, as increased production and improving domestic fuel demand offset lower realised oil and gas prices. Net profit rose to 46.38 billion yuan ($6.3 billion), while revenue fell 4.6% to 802 billion yuan, the company said in a stock filing on Monday. PetroChina's income compared with 17.86 billion yuan at top Asian refiner Sinopec Corp (600028.SS) and 33.88 billion yuan at offshore oil and gas producer CNOOC Ltd (0883.HK) for the same three months. Its crude oil output between January and September rose 4.3% versus a year earlier to 706 million barrels, including 22% growth in overseas production to 122 million barrels, PetroChina said, without specifying which countries contributed to the growth. Natural gas output was up 6.1% to 3,656.6 billion cubic feet. "(The) company seized the opportune timing of recovery in Chinese macro economy and rebounds in oil and gas markets," PetroChina said. The company reported a realised oil price of $75.30 a barrel during the nine-month period, down 21% on last year, as global oil prices fell following a spike prompted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Domestic gas prices fell 4.8% to $8.81 per thousand cubic feet. Crude oil processing at PetroChina, China's second-largest refiner after Sinopec Corp, jumped 16.5% in the first nine months to 1,044 million barrels, or 3.82 million barrels per day, in line with other national refiners that stepped up runs to meet recovering domestic fuel demand as well as cashing in on the lucrative export business. Total sales of gasoline, diesel and jet kerosene rose 13.4% on year at 125.6 million tons, including domestic sales at 93 million tons, which represented a 17% growth year-on-year. Though smallest among the three refined products, kerosene led the growth with sales during the nine months surging nearly 50% on the year to 14.3 million tons, PetroChina said. Capital spending amounted to 174 billion yuan between January and September, 10% higher than the year-earlier level. Apart from heavy spending on exploring for natural gas and oil, the company has continued to invest in downstream and petrochemical operations, launching construction of a $3 billion petrochemical complex in the western region of Xinjiang in September. Its Hong Kong-listed shares closed down 3.4% at HK$5.16 on Monday before the earnings release. They have risen 44.5% year-to-date, versus a 12% fall in the Hang Seng index (.HSI). ($1 = 7.3184 Chinese yuan renminbi https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/petrochinas-q3-net-profit-up-21-higher-output-2023-10-30/

2023-10-30 11:36

WASHINGTON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - The World Bank said on Monday it expected global oil prices to average $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter and fall to an average of $81 in 2023 as slowing growth eases demand, but warned that an escalation of the latest Middle East conflict could spike prices significantly higher. The World Bank's latest Commodity Markets Outlook report noted that oil prices have risen only about 6% since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, while prices of agricultural commodities, most metals and other commodities "have barely budged." The report outlines three risk scenarios based on historical episodes involving regional conflicts since the 1970s, with increasing severity and consequences. A "small disruption" scenario equivalent to the reduction in oil output seen during the Libyan civil war in 2011 of about 500,000 to 2 million barrels per day (bpd) would drive oil prices up to a range of $93 to $102 a barrel in the fourth quarter, the bank said. A "medium disruption" scenario -- roughly equivalent to the Iraq war in 2003 -- would cut global oil supplies by 3 million to 5 million bpd, pushing prices to between $109 and $121 per barrel. The World Bank's "large disruption" scenario approximates the impact of the 1973 Arab oil embargo, shrinking the global oil supply by 6 million to 8 million bpd. This would initially drive up prices to $140 to $157 a barrel, a jump of up to 75%. "Higher oil prices, if sustained, inevitably mean higher food prices," said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist. "If a severe oil-price shock materializes, it would push up food price inflation that has already been elevated in many developing countries." https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/world-bank-sees-oil-lower-2024-wider-middle-east-war-could-spike-them-2023-10-30/

2023-10-30 11:30

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Speculators have held bullish views toward Chicago soybean meal futures for the last two years, but their optimism has intensified over the last couple weeks as U.S. meal exports are set for new highs. In the week ended Oct. 24, money managers expanded their net long position in CBOT soybean meal futures and options to 92,027 contracts from 50,698 a week earlier, establishing their most bullish meal stance in six months. That increase of 41,329 contracts was funds’ second largest week of net buying in meal since records began in 2006, though it is well off the top spot of 58,788 contracts set in March 2020. About 60% of the latest week’s move was due to new longs, and 40% was short covering. Most-active CBOT soymeal futures jumped 8.6% in the week ended Oct. 24 on increasing international demand for U.S. soybean meal, tightening up the domestic market. Top meal exporter Argentina earlier this year had their worst soybean crop in many decades, significantly reducing soybean crush. Funds may have bought even more meal late last week as most-active futures rose another 2% between Wednesday and Friday, including a six-month high on Friday of $448.40 per short ton. Money managers flipped back to a net long in CBOT soybean futures and options through Oct. 24, snapping a seven-week selling streak. The new net long of 7,753 contracts compares with a net short of 1,984 in the prior week, which was funds’ first net short in soybeans since April 2020. Most-active CBOT soybeans were relatively unchanged in the week ended Oct. 24, but soybean oil plunged more than 7%. Money managers cut their net long in CBOT soyoil futures and options to 11,523 contracts from 20,729 a week earlier. Both soybeans and soybean oil futures rose about 2% in the last three sessions, including a six-week high for soybeans on Friday of $13.25-1/4 per bushel. GRAINS Most-active CBOT corn futures shed 1% in the week ended Oct. 24, but money managers were net buyers of the yellow grain for a fourth consecutive week, trimming their net short to 100,430 contracts from 108,870 a week earlier. CBOT wheat rose almost 2% for the week, and money managers cut their net short to 92,254 futures and options contracts from 104,407 in the prior week. That included the addition of about 7,500 gross longs, the most for any week since May 2022. Money managers in the week ended Oct. 24 snapped a 12-week selling streak in Minneapolis wheat futures and options, trimming 648 contracts from the previous week’s record net short of 25,729 contracts. Spring wheat futures are off 25% from their July top. As of Oct. 24, money managers’ net short in Kansas City wheat futures and options climbed just over 2,000 contracts to 28,994 contracts, funds’ most bearish K.C. wheat view since August 2020. K.C. futures dropped to $6.39-1/2 per bushel Friday, the most-active contract’s lowest since July 2021. CBOT corn fell 0.7% in the last three sessions, CBOT wheat dipped 0.9%, K.C. wheat lost 3% and Minneapolis wheat fell 1%. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/funds-cbot-soymeal-long-surges-strong-us-export-demand-2023-10-30/

2023-10-30 11:17

Q3 pretax profit more than doubles to $7.7 bln Rising interest rates lift profit, but costs increase Investment banking outperforms Barclays; books new wealth flows HONG KONG/LONDON Oct 30 (Reuters) - The worst may be over for China's shaky commercial real estate market, HSBC (HSBA.L) said on Monday, as a further $500 million charge from the sector helped drag third quarter profits at Europe's biggest bank below market forecasts. While HSBC announced a new $3 billion share buyback and said profits for July-September more than doubled amid higher interest rates, its shares reacted with a shrug as investors took in the China impairment and increased cost forecasts. "I do think the major correction (in China's property market) is over and it's now a case of a progressive work over an extended period of time," HSBC Chief Executive Noel Quinn told reporters. Fears about the debt-laden sector have weighed on foreign banks that lend to developers in China, especially after rival Standard Chartered (STAN.L) reported an unexpected plunge in profit due to a nearly $1 billion hit from real estate and banking. All eyes are on China's embattled property giant Evergrande Group (3333.HK) which has more than $300 billion of liabilities after it defaulted on its offshore debt in late 2021. Hong Kong's High Court said on Monday the next hearing on Dec. 4 would be the last before a decision is made on liquidating the company. HSBC finance chief Georges Elhedery said the bank still expected "a couple of quarters of difficulty as the sector adjusts," but that the longer term outlook was more positive. Commenting on HSBC's exposure to China, Hargreaves Lansdown equity analyst Matt Britzman said: "There’s still a cloud of uncertainty hovering over the market, but investors will be happy to see no nasty surprises". The bank's overall results show the hurdles it faces in delivering the consistent returns its investors expect amid high inflation and pressure on borrowers, even as it showers them with cash from dividends and buybacks. HSBC said costs would increase by up to 5% this year excluding the acquisition of Silicon Valley Bank's British unit, more than its previous goal of a 3% rise, as spending grows and it considers bigger bonuses for bankers in the fourth quarter. The bank posted a pretax profit of $7.7 billion for the July to September quarter, versus $3.2 billion a year earlier, but the result trailed the $8.1 billion mean average estimate of brokers compiled by HSBC. "Costs are likely to be the area of controversy", said London-based Jefferies analyst Joe Dickerson, though he added the share buyback was $1 billion larger than his forecast. The London-headquartered bank with a market value of $118.6 billion said it aimed to complete the share buyback by next February, lifting the total buybacks announced this year to $7 billion. It also set the third interim dividend this year at 10 cents per share, bringing the total annual payout so far to 30 cents per share. HSBC shares in London were broadly flat, underperforming a 0.7% gain in the benchmark FTSE 100 index (.FTSE). Third-quarter revenues rose 2% in HSBC's Global Banking and Markets division that houses its investment bank, a more robust performance than rival Barclays' BARC.L 6% drop, as HSBC's large payments business benefited from higher interest rates. The bank's wealth business, which it is prioritising for growth, attracted $34 billion of net new invested assets in the quarter and revenues have grown 12% so far this year as rate hikes let it reap bigger margins on lending. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/hsbc-q3-pre-tax-profit-more-than-doubles-misses-estimates-2023-10-30/

2023-10-30 11:08

LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Sterling was broadly flat against the dollar and euro on Monday as traders looked ahead to a Bank of England (BoE) meeting on Thursday where rates are expected to be held and the outlook is likely to be more in focus after a run of weak UK economic data. The British pound has largely been on the back foot in currency markets in recent weeks as risk appetite has faded, weighed by jitters in the stock market and war in the Middle East. Currency analysts have said that deteriorating UK economic indicators - including jobs data last week that showed the labour market has lost some of its inflationary heat - have underscored market bets on the BoE holding rates. BoE data on Monday showed British lenders in September approved the lowest number of home loans since January, adding to signs of a sluggish property market. Sterling was last trading flat on the dollar at $1.21250 and down 0.1% on the euro at 87.25 pence. Currency analysts at MUFG said in a note that the BoE was likely at the peak of its rate tightening cycle and that the key would now be "communication in terms of assessing the prospects of a pivot toward a more dovish stance over coming meetings". "We are likely some distance from that for the BoE but certainly most of the data released since the last meeting in September has pointed to weak economic activity," they added. "That may well mean the growth projections in the Monetary Policy Report could show a downgrade from the forecasts in August," the analysts said. The yield on two-year British government bonds fell to its lowest since mid-June in early trade on Monday as investors further scaled back bets on BoE rate rises. Markets were putting just a 6% chance of the BoE raising the rate on Thursday. The vast majority of economists polled by Reuters this month said the BoE would leave rates at 5.25%. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/sterling-pauses-weak-uk-economic-data-frames-boe-policy-meeting-2023-10-30/

2023-10-30 11:07

Oct 30 (Reuters) - Air Canada (AC.TO) said on Monday it expects 2023 core profit towards the higher range of its previous forecast, after the carrier beat third-quarter profit estimates, benefiting from strong demand for international travel. North American airlines operating international flights are benefiting from sustained demand for long-haul journeys as more people plan holidays abroad, despite contending with higher costs. Such airlines are facing pressures from higher labor costs, with pilots at U.S. legacy carriers nabbing steep pay increases in new contracts or tentative agreements. Last month, Air Canada pilots staged a protest demanding better pay and benefits as talks over a new contract covering 4,500 pilots at the company continue. "Our demonstrated adaptability, combined with a stable demand environment, give us every confidence for the rest of the year and into 2024 despite the inevitable headwinds to which our global industry is prone," CEO Michael Rousseau said. Canada's largest airline posted adjusted profit of C$3.41 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30, compared with analysts' average estimate of C$2.15 per share, according to LSEG data. The company now expects its 2023 adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) toward the higher end of its previous forecast range of about C$3.75 billion to C$4.0 billion. The Canadian carrier's quarterly operating revenue rose 19.2% to C$6.34 billion, beating analysts' average expectations of C$6.10 billion. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/air-canada-reports-profit-versus-year-ago-loss-strong-international-travel-2023-10-30/